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PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHNC #0695 3091130
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051130Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY NICOSIA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0268
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA PRIORITY 5537

C O N F I D E N T I A L NICOSIA 000695 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2019 
TAGS: ECON PREL CY
SUBJECT: NORTH CYPRUS BUSINESSMEN TAKE 'WAIT AND SEE' 
APPROACH TO REUNIFICATION 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Frank Urbancic for reasons 1.5 b and d 
 
¶1.  (SBU) The new president of the Turkish Cypriot Chamber of 
Commerce (TCCC), Gunay Cerkez, told us that his organization 
would not campaign either in favor or against any referendum 
on the island's reunification. This is in stark contrast to 
the 2004 referendum in which the TCCC actively campaigned for 
a "yes" vote with Chamber members appearing on TV and radio 
and making speeches explaining the economic benefits that 
would accrue to Turkish Cypriots in a reunified Cyprus. 
 
¶2. (C) Cerkez is one of north Cyprus' leading businessmen 
with interests in mobile telephony, tourism, and 
construction. He is also a long-time participant in 
bi-communal efforts working for resolution to the island's 
division, having participated, for example, in the "Brussels 
Group" which brought business leaders from both communities 
together before the Green Line crossings were opened. This 
time, however, Cerkez sees no advantage for his organization 
in playing an active role if the referendum stage is reached. 
"What did it get us last time? Nothing but criticism for 
believing the Greeks would be reasonable and that the EU 
would treat us fairly. If individual Chamber members want to 
campaign, that's fine, but as an organization we will remain 
neutral." Cerkez agreed that reunification would be a huge 
boost to the ailing north Cyprus economy, but he is extremely 
doubtful things will get that far. "The Greeks have 
everything, EU membership, their own fully-recognized state 
that they don't have to share with us, and a feeling of moral 
superiority. Unless the U.S. and EU put pressure on them, the 
Greeks will not negotiate in a way that will reach a 
solution." 
 
¶3. (C) These points were echoed by another TCCC board member, 
Mete Boyaci, who has businesses in fast food, supermarkets, 
cinemas, construction materials and construction. He was an 
active "yes" campaigner in 2004 but now, he told us, the 
political risk of being on the "wrong" side of a referendum 
is too great. It is not that Boyaci is against a solution, 
although he is extremely disillusioned by his inability to 
find a consistent way to do business with Greek Cypriots (he 
claims arbitrary and changing rules by GC customs, and GC 
buyers who cancel orders at the last moment) and "Greek 
Cypriot rudeness," just that in his analysis of personal 
cost/benefits he would make out best whatever the results of 
the talks if he just keeps quiet. 
 
¶4. (C) The president of the Turkish Cypriot Bankers 
Association, Yunus Ahramoglu, voted "no" in 2004 and remains 
extremely mistrustful of his southern neighbors. Neither he 
nor his association will have a position on a referendum, he 
says. However, Ahramoglu was the only one of the three 
businessmen who believes that a referendum would result in a 
"yes" vote this time around because "Turkey will make sure." 
 
¶5. (C) Comment: A solution in Cyprus would considerably 
increase the wealth of these well-connected businesspeople 
and perhaps a more certain prospect of this might change 
their minds about how actively they would support a solution 
at the right time. The personal embarrassment and hurt from 
2004, especially their conviction that they were encouraged 
by the U.S. and EU to be active in 2004 only to "get nothing 
in return for our efforts and our people's yes vote" makes 
them reluctant to say anything positive to us now. 
 
¶6. (C) Comment continued. Since 2004, many TC businesses have 
had some level of interaction with their GC colleagues to the 
extent that north Cyprus exported goods to the GOC worth 
about Euros 4.8 million in the first half of 2009.  However, 
TCs complain that this trade is difficult, subject to GC 
whim, and that they are constantly made to feel "second 
class" by the GCs. This sense of "condescension" towards them 
by the GCs, and the GC "attitude that they are the only 
aggrieved party in Cyprus' recent history" are points we 
frequently hear from our TC business interlocutors. This was 
not the case in 2004 when contact between the two sides was 
much more limited. Familiarity has seemingly bred  additional 
mistrust. 
 
URBANCIC