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P 121029Z NOV 09
FM AMCONSUL NAHA
TO AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 
SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1140
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
NSC WASHINGTON DC
HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
INFO CG III MEF CAMP COURTNEY JA
CG MCB CAMP BUTLER JA
YOKOTA AB HQ USFJ
18WG  KADENA AB JA
AMCONSUL NAHA

C O N F I D E N T I A L NAHA 000077 
 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/J 
NSC FOR RUSSEL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  11/12/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MOPS JA
SUBJECT: TOKYO'S INDECISION FUELS OKINAWAN RALLY 
 
REF: NAHA 67 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Raymond Greene, Consul General, U.S. Consulate 
General Naha. 
REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) SUMMARY:  The November 8 rally to oppose the Futenma 
Relocation Facility (FRF) was directed as much at Tokyo's 
inability to take a clear policy position on Okinawa as it was 
on the merits of the realignment plan.  Beyond the normal 
politics of Futenma relocation, the rally showcased growing 
local fears that Okinawa's "special status" will be undermined 
by the new regime in Tokyo.  Another subtext to the rally was 
maneuvering among local political figures for leadership in the 
post-LDP era.  Despite an LDP boycott, conservatives were drawn 
to the rally in a bid to undercut efforts by People New Party 
(PNP) Policy Chief Mikio Shimoji to assert local leadership of 
the emerging new political order.  Political gamesmanship 
notwithstanding, contacts express concern that expectations set 
by the Prime Minister for major changing in U.S. basing on the 
island could lead to a backlash against political moderates if 
left unfulfilled.   END SUMMARY. 
 
NOT JUST THE USUAL SUSPECTS 
 
¶2. (SBU)  While national media and the Hatoyama administration 
are citing 21,000 participants in the November 9 anti-FRF rally, 
Consulate police contacts estimate that turnout was closer to 
6,000-10,000.  This was far short of the recent political 
rallies staged in Okinawa, such as the 2007 protest against 
changes the Japanese Government was making to school textbook 
references to the role the Japanese military played in mass 
suicides in WWII, but long time observers of Okinawan politics 
say that the level of participation was significant for a 
comparatively rushed event that lacked a central focus or "clear 
cut enemy."  Given the strength of the communist and socialist 
parties in Okinawa, the event drew the expected participants, 
including elderly who use local communist hospitals and clinics 
and anti-base activists.  However, there were also a large 
number of families with children with no clear political ties. 
 
TARGETTED OPPORTUNITY TO BLOCK SHIMOJI 
 
¶3. (C) Despite being boycotted by Governor Nakaima and the local 
LDP party, the event drew a number of leading conservatives. 
Local media and even some contacts in the Okinawa Prefectural 
Government (OPG) have interpreted conservative Naha mayor 
Takeshi Onaga's participation as a possible sign of growing 
bipartisan opposition to relocating MCAS Futenma within the 
prefecture.   However, contacts close to the event organizers 
account for his participation differently.    They argue that 
Onaga, perhaps with the blessing of Governor Nakaima, took on 
the organization role specifically to counter the influence of 
PNP (formerly LDP) Lower House member Mikio Shimoji.  They 
explain that Shimoji, with his personal ties to the local 
construction industry, has used his party's position in the 
coalition to cast himself as the politicians who can deliver for 
the prefecture's business interests with the new government. 
Onaga, by taking a high-profile role as one of the four 
organizers of Sunday's rally, eclipsed Shimoji as the major 
conservative force at the rally.  Shimoji's attempts to carve 
out a leadership role for himself have been set back by his 
advocacy for merging MCAS Futenma and Kadena Air Base.  Incensed 
at his recent efforts, rally participants heckled him 
relentlessly as he attempted to address the crowd. 
 
FEAR OF TOKYO DRIVES EVENT BUT MESSAGE MUTED BY DPJ'S PRESENCE 
 
¶4. (C)  National media focused on the messages directed at  U.S. 
officials and the strong criticism levied at Governors Nakaima 
and Matsuzawa who issued strong statements from their Washington 
tour endorsing the FRF.  However, participants in the rally 
pointed out that many of the speeches were directed at Prime 
Minister Hatoyama.  Contacts close to the organizers also note 
that the timing of the event was motivated by growing fear that 
the new DPJ government may be poised to change Tokyo's 
relationship with Okinawa as much as it was the upcoming 
Presidential summit.   They explain that the DPJ government's 
inability to formulate a coherent policy towards Okinawa, 
despite ambitious promises during the campaign, may indicate 
that Tokyo no longer views Okinawa as a special case (with the 
attendant levels of economic support) and could start treating 
Okinawa as "one of any of the 47 prefectures."  Overt criticism 
of the new government in Tokyo, however, was tempered by the 
fact that DPJ was one of the four event organizers. 
 
¶5. (C)  Tactical maneuvering notwithstanding, Consulate contacts 
across the political spectrum caution that the relatively high 
turnout at the rally could presage a return of anti-base 
activism that has laid dormant for much of the past decade. 
Moderate DPJ Diet member Denny Tamaki, for example, warned the 
Consul General that the anti-base left has been in retreat for 
the past 10 years, replaced by pragmatic moderates willing to 
engage on base issues in a non-ideological way.  Tamaki said 
that the Prime Minister's rhetoric about major changes to basing 
relations in Okinawa has greatly raised expectations.  "He talks 
as if this was just like reversion in 1972," Tamaki added, "and 
if he doesn't deliver there will be a major backlash that will 
only benefit the far left." 
 
COMMENT: POLITICS IN FLUX 
 
¶6. (C)  The political jockeying that marked the November 8 rally 
is symptomatic of the fluidity of Okinawan politics in the wake 
of the change of government in Tokyo.  Both conservatives and 
DPJ moderates are jockeying to fill the role long played by the 
local LDP as the manager of the prefecture's relationship with 
Tokyo.  However, the deeper concern is that there may be no 
"special relationship" to manage under the new government. 
Moderates worry that Prime Minister Hatoyama's sweeping promises 
about major changes in U.S. basing arrangements is empty 
rhetoric, which will inevitably lead to disappointment and a 
backlash against Tokyo's efforts to defend base presence.  There 
is wider concern about DPJ promises to "delink" bases from 
economic support, while simultaneously slashing "wasteful" 
public works projects that Okinawa has relied upon for so long. 
The sum of these fears is that Okinawa could end up as "just 
another one of the 47 prefectures" with little prospect for 
economic development or a reduction in the footprint of U.S. 
bases. 
 
 
RGREENE