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FM AMEMBASSY MOSCOW
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RUEHXD/MOSCOW POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 MOSCOW 002781 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV PMAR PHUM PINR ECON EFIN RS
SUBJECT: MEDVEDEV'S ANNUAL ADDRESS: POLITICAL FOCUS ON 
REGIONS AND FOREIGN POLICY PROGRESS 
 
REF: A. MOSCOW 2416 
     ¶B. 08 MOSCOW 3243 
 
Classified By: Ambassador John R. Beyrle; reasons 1.4(b/d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: President Medvedev's second annual address to 
a joint session of the State Duma and Federation Council 
today built upon the intellectual foundation he had already 
laid in his September article "Russia, Forward!" (Ref A). 
Repeatedly citing the article and specific proposals from the 
over 16,000 responses he has received to it, Medvedev 
identified rejection of the untenable reliance on the sale of 
energy and raw materials as the fundamental source of income 
for the country as a unifying element.  In an approximately 
100 minute speech, Medvedev returned again and again to the 
need for modernization in the economy, and in the health care 
and educational systems (Septel).  Only briefly -- much to 
the disappointment of some -- did he speak to political 
change, outlining proposals for more political dialogue at 
the regional level which paralleled his 2008 proposed 
national changes.  Medvedev was more specific in this address 
than in his article in proposing possible steps to launch the 
economic, political and social changes he argued Russia needs 
improve citizens' quality of life and remain a powerful, 
respected international partner.  He played today his 
tandem-specific role as the long-range thinker well, leaving 
the economic details to Prime Minister Putin, and the 
question of demonstrating openness to political competition 
to United Russia.  End Summary. 
 
Politics: All Well at National Level; Regions Should Emulate 
--------------------------------------------- --------------- 
 
¶2. (C) In light of the animated discussion his September 
article provoked, and of the tainted October regional 
elections, Medvedev's comments tying economic modernization 
and reform with political developments were greatly 
anticipated.  The President's political proposals in his 2008 
poslaniye were largely cosmetic -- giving nominal 
representation (a few seats) in the Duma to parties that 
crossed a 5 percent barrier but did not meet the higher level 
(7 percent of votes) required to secure seats fully 
proportional to its national share of votes, as well as 
greater access to electronic media for opposition parties. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Medvedev declared that "functioning, multi-party 
democracy now exists in Russia."  He called for harmonizing 
of the sizes of legislative chambers throughout the country 
(Moscow's city Duma has 35 members representing a population 
of 11 million, while Tyva's Duma, elected by a much smaller 
population, has 162 deputies), as well as eventually phasing 
out of the requirement of candidates collecting signatures in 
order to be included on the ballot.  While these issues will 
have significance for particular groups or parties in certain 
regions, their implementation would do little to affect the 
political system in which United Russia party and government 
officials exercise dominant control of the electoral system. 
Medvedev did call for opposition parties to have greater 
access to regional electronic media, for regional officials 
to annually appear before regional legislatures and stand 
accountable for their decisions, and for regional and local 
leaders to meet annually with representatives of all parties 
in order to give the latter the opportunity to present their 
ideas and concerns to executive  branch authorities. 
 
¶4. (C) While there may be some resistance to some of these 
ideas by certain regional politicians, the ideas will not 
have much of an impact on the overall political system.  But 
what will likely spark greater debate is Medvedev's 
suggestion that single mandate districts be eliminated, and 
that regional legislators be elected based on proportional 
party lists.  Yevgeniy Minchenko, Director of the Center for 
Political Expertise, told us after the speech that while the 
other ideas Medvedev put forward were excellent the party 
list proposals is "crazy," and that he will work to have it 
dropped.  (Note: Minchenko claimed that the proposals came 
from his collaboration with another self-declared poslaniye 
contributor, Effective Politics Fund Director Gleb 
Pavlovskiy.  Pavlovskiy told us that he had been devoting 
most of his time to working on Medvedev's speech which, along 
with the November 21 United Russia Congress, would indicate 
the current focus of the tandem.  End Note) 
 
North Caucasus Violence: International Terrorism to Blame 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
 
MOSCOW 00002781  002 OF 002 
 
 
¶5. (C) As Medvedev hit the 90 minute mark, he turned to the 
worsening situation in Russia's northern Caucasus region.  He 
tied the terrorist acts there to unspecified international 
terrorism but noted that the root of the problem is the 
region's dismal economic conditions, singling out Ingushetiya 
(50 percent unemployment) and Chechnya (30 percent 
unemployment) as the worst of the lot.  In order to fund 
programs to improve education in Ingushetiya and assist in 
organizing work battalions of Ingush men to other parts of 
Russia, Medvedev announced a 32 billion ruble (currently over 
USD one billion) federal program for Ingushetiya in addition 
to the 29 billion rubles for the republic he pledged in 
January 2009 -- none of which, our contacts report, has yet 
to be disbursed.  He also announced the creation of the 
position of a "Northern Caucasus Supervisor" who would be 
responsible for the region.  Ingushetiya President Yunus-Bek 
Yevkurov quickly publicly supported the creation of the 
position, stating that it was not important what title the 
person bore, but only that he would have the power and 
authority to take whatever actions were needed.  (Note: 
Moscow Carnegie Center's Masha Lipman told us this was tried 
before several years ago, with then Southern PolPred Dmitriy 
Kozak, with little affect.  End Note). 
 
Foreign Policy: What a Difference a Year Makes 
--------------------------------------------- - 
 
¶6. (SBU) Only in the waning minutes of the speech did 
Medvedev address foreign and military policy.  He pledged 
ample funding to the military for additional military 
projects, including additional aircraft, anti-air rocket 
systems (Iskanders) and nuclear submarines.  He endorsed 
reform efforts to build a cadre of professional officers and 
tied these efforts to his overall theme of modernization.  On 
foreign policy, he reiterated his earlier calls for a legally 
binding agreement on European security based upon a "new, 
effective organization" to serve as the platform for 
addressing issues critical not just for some countries, but 
for all of Europe.  He denied, though, that by advocating for 
such a new agreement Russia was against NATO, and he charged 
the MFA with working to make progress on his earlier 
proposals for a European Security Treaty.  Had such an 
organization existed last year, he claimed, the war with 
Georgia could have been avoided. 
 
¶7. (C) Masha Lipman, editor of the journal "Pro et Contra," 
told us immediately after the speech that she detected in it 
"a profound sense of modesty" with regard to defense and 
foreign policy goals.  After "obligatory" words in praise the 
Russian armed forces and promises of additional funding, 
Medvedev transitioned to strong endorsements of multilateral 
approaches to global problems, noting in particular that 
cooperation with Russia's partners was essential to confront 
key foreign policy challenges of Iran, North Korea, 
Afghanistan and Middle East peace.  He praised the 
constructive work done by the G-20 to address the global 
financial and economic crisis.  He only once directly 
referred to the United States (together with China) as 
countries with large populations that are successfully 
adapting to the new conditions of the global economy.  He 
further noted that modernization requires close cooperation 
with other countries, and that investment and exchanges are 
of such a high priority for Russia that it would not 
jeopardize this by threatening its neighbors. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C)  Medvedev played his role as chief strategist, 
building on his article to make his case directly to 
legislators and the nation to take the harder path toward 
modernization.  Presidential Administration Chief of Staff 
Naryshkin has already told media that some of the regional 
political changes the President proposed "will take years to 
implement."  While it is clear that Medvedev took into 
account some of the ideas from main opposition parties (i.e., 
those that have representation in the State Duma), his 
defense of the Russian "multi-party democracy" has left 
others like Yabloko Chairman Sergey Mitrokhin cold.  Russians 
can be expected to wait to see what proposals their 
government puts forward, and how willing national and 
regional political leaders in the dominant United Russia 
party will be to share political space with the opposition, 
especially those whom were excluded from participating in 
recent political contests. 
Beyrle