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DE RUEHMN #0680/01 3341853
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FM AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO
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INFO MERCOSUR COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS MONTEVIDEO 000680 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PREL PGOV UY
SUBJECT: Jose Mujica Wins Uruguayan Presidency 
 
¶1. (U) Summary. As predicted by all major polling companies, Frente 
Amplio candidate and former Tupamaro guerrilla Jose "Pepe" Mujica 
will be the next President of Uruguay, after winning 53 percent of 
the vote in a runoff election against Luis Alberto Lacalle November 
¶29.  Both Mujica and Lacalle lauded Uruguay's long democratic 
tradition, and called for all sides to work together for the 
country's benefit.  Mujica promised to continue and build on the 
economic and social policies of incumbent President Vazquez.  He 
hopes to name his cabinet by December 20, giving time for a smooth 
tradition before the March 1 inauguration.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Mujica's Victory Historic, and Expected 
 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Frente Amplio candidate Jose Mujica won the November 29 
Presidential runoff election against National Party candidate and 
former President Luis Lacalle with a projected total of 53 percent 
of the vote. Lacalle received 43 percent, and 4 percent of voters 
submitted blank or annulled ballots. 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) Mujica's win was widely expected after he claimed 48 percent 
of the vote in first-round elections (to Lacalle's 29 percent) 
October 25.  Almost all polls projected Mujica as steadily holding 
a 10 point margin over Lacalle in the past month.  Colorado Party 
candidate Pedro Bordaberry threw his support to Lacalle after 
finishing in third place in October, but their combined efforts 
proved insufficient to overcome Mujica's significant lead. 
 
 
 
¶4. (U) As in the first round, Mujica's support was greatest in 
Montevideo (where he received almost 60 percent of the vote) and 
the neighboring vote-rich Department of Canelones (where he 
finished with 56 percent).  Mujica also defeated Lacalle in the 
departments of Salto, Paysandu, and Soriano, but by slimmer 
margins.  Lacalle won all other departments, but the FA ticket 
actually received more votes in the interior of the country than in 
the first round of elections on October 25. 
 
 
 
¶5. (U) Flooding in the northwest of the country threatened to block 
access to voting stations, but Uruguayan authorities did a good job 
of clearing up these logistical difficulties by election day, 
moving a few polling stations and providing transportation to 
others.  Despite some delays in the counting of votes due to 
blackouts in Soriano and Rivera departments, the flooding had 
little impact on the outcome. 
 
 
 
 
 
Both Mujica and Lacalle Conciliatory in Victory and Defeat 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
-- 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Following the projection of Mujica's victory by all major 
national pollsters, Lacalle received a call from President Vazquez, 
who, having lost in a similar fashion in the 1999 presidential 
race, expressed empathy for the candidate.  Lacalle then called 
Mujica to concede, and addressed his constituents at the 
headquarters of his National Party faction, Unidad Nacional.  In 
his concession speech to a tearful crowd, Lacalle thanked his 
supporters, celebrated the country's long democratic tradition, and 
called on all sides to work together to find solutions for the 
problems shared by all Uruguayans. 
 
 
 
¶7. (U)  Mujica and running mate Danilo Astori, accompanied by a 
jubilant President Vazquez, proclaimed victory at around 9:30 pm in 
front of a massive crowd at the NH Columbia hotel along the River 
Plate, where thousands of Frente Amplio supporters clogged the 
streets for miles.  Mujica's speech was humble and conciliatory. 
He pledged to work for the benefit of all Uruguayans and reminded 
his followers of the importance of working with their compatriots 
in the National Party in the months and years ahead.  Mujica 
 
acknowledged that he had won largely because of the success of 
Vazquez's policies and pledged to continue and expand upon them.  A 
planned concert and fireworks were interrupted by the onset of 
heavy storms, but thousands of rain-drenched Frente Amplio 
supporters remained on the streets celebrating the victory. 
 
 
 
 
 
Cabinet Starting to Take Shape? 
 
--------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (U) According to press reports, Mujica plans to name his cabinet 
on December 20.  He currently hopes to designate ministries in 
accordance with each Frente Amplio faction's representation within 
Parliament, with roughly five ministries (including Defense, 
Foreign Affairs, and Interior) going to members of Mujica's 
Movement for Popular Participation (MPP), four to running mate 
Danilo Astori's Frente Liber Seregni (including the economic 
ministries), two to the Socialist Party, one to the Vertiente 
Artiguista Party, and one to the Communist Party.  This could well 
change if the National or Colorado parties agree to form part of a 
coalition government.  Mujica will be meeting with Colorado Party 
leader Pedro Bordaberry November 30 and Lacalle December 4 to 
discuss this possibility. 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) While the government is expected to shift leftwards 
following Mujica's inauguration in March 2010, the new president is 
expected to continue many of the policies supported by his 
predecessor Tabare Vazquez, particularly in economic policy and 
social policy.  Mujica pledged to address security, education, and 
health, areas in which the Vazquez government has faced challenges. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Implications for Uruguayan Foreign Policy 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Mujica has limited experience in foreign affairs and 
there was almost no discussion of foreign policy during the 
elections.  He clearly was the favored candidate of South American 
leaders of countries such as Venezuela and Argentina, and some of 
his followers may encourage collaboration with ALBA.  At the same 
time, Mujica has sought to demonstrate that he understands the 
importance of the bilateral relationship with the United States, 
even visiting the U.S. Embassy (for the first time) in September. 
Mujica has also emphasized his admiration for Lula.  Mujica's key 
appointments, especially for Foreign and Defense Ministers, will 
offer the most solid early clues about Mujica's foreign policy 
direction. 
 
 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) Mujica's historic trajectory -- from a Tupamaro guerrilla 
who spent over a decade in prison during the military dictatorship 
to leadership of the country -- was unthinkable only two years ago. 
His victory demonstrates that the leftist Frente Amplio (FA) 
coalition's strength transcends current President Tabare Vazquez's 
own considerable personal popularity.  We expect some jostling over 
Cabinet positions, and perhaps a period of confusion as the new 
team takes office and begins to become familiar with international 
and regional issues.  While Mujica is open to working with the U.S. 
and we have strong relationships with key Frente Amplio politicians 
who are expected to be included in a Mujica administration, it will 
likely take some time to reach the high level of cooperation that 
we currently enjoy on regional and multinational issues.  End 
comment. 
MATTHEWMAN