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FM AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA
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INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LJUBLJANA 000347 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL EUN HR SI
SUBJECT: MFA NOTES ACHIEVEMENTS, NEXT STEPS ON ARBITRATION 
AGREEMENT 
 
REF: LJUBLJANA 335 AND 336 
 
Classified By: CDA Brad Freden, E.O. 12958, reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
¶1. (C)  Summary.  Senior officials at Slovenia's Ministry of 
Foreign Affairs are pleased with the November 4th signing of 
the arbitration agreement to resolve the Slovenia-Croatia 
border dispute.  At a November 5 briefing, Director-General 
for European Affairs and Bilateral Relations Iztok Mirosic 
praised the historic agreement reached by Prime Ministers 
Pahor and Kosor and said that once the arbitration agreement 
was ratified by both Parliaments, Slovenia and Croatia's 
border dispute would essentially be resolved.  Now that the 
arbitration agreement has been signed by the two PMs, both 
governments have two weeks to take the agreement to their 
respective Parliaments for ratification with a target end 
date of December 2009.  Mirosic noted that PM Pahor would 
face a tough battle in Parliament but was optimistic that he 
would be able to overcome opposition and push the agreement 
through.  Pahor would then likely face a referendum called by 
the opposition shortly thereafter.  Post plans to engage key 
decision makers to ensure that our message gets across: the 
United States would like to see the arbitration agreement 
ratified soonest, as success is of vital importance not only 
to both countries, but to the region as a whole.  End summary. 
 
-- MFA SATISFIED WITH STOCKHOLM OUTCOME -- 
 
¶2. (SBU)  On November 5, Ministry of Foreign Affairs 
Director-General for European Affairs and Bilateral Relations 
Iztok Mirosic briefed a group of EU Ambassadors on the 
arbitration agreement signed by Prime Minister Pahor and 
Croatian Prime Minister Kosor the day before in Stockholm, 
Sweden.  Pol-Econ Chief attended the briefing.  Mirosic 
praised the historic agreement and noted the atmosphere in 
Stockholm had been "very" positive.  He said the two Prime 
Ministers came to an agreement on the basis of mutual trust 
and were now focused on future cooperation.  Mirosic was 
satisfied with the outcome of bilateral negotiations and said 
that once the arbitration agreement was ratified by both 
sides, Slovenia and Croatia's border dispute would 
essentially be resolved.  The DG noted the agreement sent a 
strong signal to the Balkan states, who are dealing with 
their own border disputes.  He expressed his appreciation to 
EU Enlargement Minister Ollie Rehn whose proposal formed the 
basis of the arbitration agreement and thanked the Swedish 
Presidency for the encouragement and assistance it provided 
with communication. 
 
-- MFA HIGHLIGHTS SPECIFIC ACHIEVEMENTS -- 
 
¶3. (SBU) DG Mirosic and an MFA lawyer highlighted what they 
viewed as several "achievements" attained in Stockholm.  They 
explained Slovenia and Croatia reached an agreement on the 
size of the arbitral tribunal which will be made up of five 
individuals.  The President of the European Community and 
Rehn will propose three candidates.  Slovenia and Croatia 
will also select one each.  If both sides cannot agree to the 
three proposed individuals from the EC and Rehn, the 
President of the International Court of Justice will choose 
the members.  Mirosic was optimistic that both Slovenia and 
Croatia would reach an agreement on the arbitrators before 
the decision would have to go to the ICJ. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Regarding the specific language on a "junction to 
the high seas" in article three, Mirosic explained that the 
Slovenian side came away from Stockholm with an understanding 
that the meaning of territorial contact was preserved in the 
agreement's text.  The MFA lawyer explained that such 
language was used in previous international agreements, and 
that it was not a new or unique expression specific to this 
agreement.  Ultimately, the arbitral tribunal has the power 
to interpret the agreement and what the "junction" means. 
The MFA lawyer further explained that the tribunal will base 
this decision on international law, equity and good 
neighborly relations.  They will refer to all relevant 
circumstances and make their final decision based on the 
vital interests of both countries. 
 
¶5. (SBU) Mirosic also explained that Croatia proposed a 
unilateral statement which "attempted to define the 
junction."   He quickly discounted it and reiterated 
Ljubljana's earlier position that it was completely 
"unacceptable" for the Swedish Presidency to witness such a 
statement.   The DG emphasized the two Prime Ministers signed 
the arbitration agreement in Stockholm without any unilateral 
statements.  Mirosic said he would not speculate on future 
Zagreb actions, but that Slovenia would have to respond with 
a unilateral statement of its own if Croatia were to issue 
one, as in the international community, silence equates to 
tacit agreement. 
 
-- NEXT STEPS -- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Now that the arbitration agreement has been signed 
by the two PMs, both governments have two weeks to begin 
their respective ratification processes with a target end 
date of December, 2009.   The Slovenians will shortly send 
the text of the agreement to their Constitutional Court for 
review.  Assuming no challenges, Parliament will vote on 
ratification.  The agreement can pass with a simple majority. 
  Once Parliament ratifies the agreement, Mirosic noted that 
he expected the opposition would call for a referendum.  PM 
Pahor will face a tough debate in Slovenia, but Mirosic said 
he believed the PM would succeed in the end.  If the 
referendum were to fail, Mirosic explained Parliament would 
have to wait a full year before revisiting the arbitration 
agreement. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Assuming that all tests are passed in Slovenia, the 
arbitration agreement will technically go into force one week 
after both sides ratify it.  However, the arbitral tribunal 
would only begin its procedural work the same day that 
Croatia signs its EU accession agreement.  Mirosic openly 
speculated that this could mean the process will formally 
begin as early as 2010 or 2011, if Croatia met all of its 
accession conditions.  In the meantime, Mirosic noted, both 
sides will negotiate on the composition of the tribunal and 
will begin preliminary negotiations on any other issues that 
may need to be resolved.  As a result, the DG was optimistic 
that the arbitration tribunal's work would proceed quickly, 
as most of the initial leg work could be completed in advance. 
 
-- BORDER DE-LINKED FROM CROATIA'S ACCESSION PROCESS -- 
 
¶8. (SBU) In response to a series of questions from the 
diplomatic community, DG Mirosic said that Slovenia no longer 
held any reservations on Croatia's EU negotiation process as 
a result of the border dispute.  Slovenia will continue to 
keep an eye on Chapter 31 which calls for good neighborly 
relations, as Ljubljana has a host of other issues to address 
with Zagreb that are not connected to the border.  (Note: 
Post will report septel on these issues.)   Mirosic quickly 
noted that the agreement on the border dispute did not mean 
that Slovenia would forego negotiations on other outstanding 
issues as they relate to this specific chapter. 
 
-- COMMENT -- 
 
¶9. (C)  The agreement reached by the two Prime Ministers in 
Stockholm is a major accomplishment.  Prime Minister Pahor 
now faces a tough battle in Parliament to convince fence 
sitters within his own coalition that ratifying the 
arbitration agreement is ultimately in Slovenia's best 
interests.  Opposition leader and SDS head Janez Jansa will 
likely continue to severely criticize Pahor for the 
agreement.  Members of the opposition have already publicly 
announced that they plan to call for a referendum if the 
agreement is ratified.  In a country where referendums are a 
popular political tool and voter turnout tends to be low, 
Pahor will need an aggressive public relations strategy to 
ensure that those in support of the agreement come out in 
force to vote for its passage.  Post plans to engage key 
decision makers in both the ruling coalition and opposition, 
as well as the general population, with a combination of 
intense behind-the-scenes lobbying and subtle public outreach 
to ensure that our message gets across: the United States 
would like to see the arbitration agreement ratified soonest, 
as success is of vital importance not only to both countries, 
but to the region as a whole. 
 
FREDEN