VZCZCXRO7625
PP RUEHIK
DE RUEHKV #1990/01 3171505
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 131505Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8816
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA PRIORITY
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001990 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KIPR CDC SOCI PREL AMED CASC XH UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: H1N1 UPDATE 
 
REF: A) KYIV 01893  B) KYIV 01911 
 
KYIV 00001990  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED, NOT FOR INTERNET DISTRIBUTION 
 
¶1. (U) Summary.  With the flu epidemic spreading across Ukraine, 
President Yushchenko and Prime Minister Tymoshenko continue to blame 
each other over the response to the outbreak.  Yushchenko vowed on 
Wednesday to veto a bill, pushed through the Verkhovna Rada 
(Parliament) by Tymoshenko, that would direct the National Bank of 
Ukraine (NBU) to allocate UAH 1 billion ($125 million) to fight the 
flu.  Yushchenko said such step would lead to further devaluation of 
the hryvnia and urged the government to use budget funds instead. 
Tymoshenko accused the President of undermining the government's 
efforts to successfully combat the outbreak and said he would "be 
responsible for every person who is ill today or dies."  Against 
this backdrop, local health authorities are scrambling to bring the 
virus under control, procure and distribute medical supplies and 
equipment, and enact token measures like the mandatory wearing of 
surgical masks in some parts of the country.  End Summary. 
 
FLU STATISTICS 
-------------- 
 
¶2. (U) The Ministry of Health reported 239 deaths associated with 
influenza and acute respiratory viral infections in Ukraine as of 
November 12.  H1N1 has been confirmed in 85 cases, including 16 
cases which resulted in deaths.  Eighteen regions, including the 
city of Kyiv and now oblasts in eastern Ukraine, reported 
epidemic-level outbreaks.  An additional seven regions were nearing 
the epidemic threshold. 
 
¶3.  (U) There have been conflicting accounts about the spread of the 
virus.  Some commentators reported that the outbreak has passed its 
peak and is on a decline while others warned that the virus is 
spreading.  A WHO team, which has been in Ukraine since November 2 
investigating the outbreak, characterized the outbreak as the first 
wave of a flu epidemic, with a second, longer wave likely to arrive 
later this winter.  At the same time, the WHO team leader Jukka 
Pukkila warned, "it is extremely hard to foresee the further 
development of the epidemic in Ukraine, as in other countries of the 
world." 
 
FIGHT OVER MEASURES 
------------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) Ukraine's politicians continue using the flu outbreak to 
boost their own position and discredit their political opponents. 
In the latest public spat over the handling of the epidemic, 
Tymoshenko accused Yushchenko of sabotaging the government's effort 
to combat the flu, after the President vowed to veto a spending bill 
that would have forced the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) to print 
money to finance anti-flu measures proposed by the government.  "The 
President will be responsible for every person who is ill today or 
dies," Tymoshenko said.  Yushchenko maintained his prerogative to 
veto the bill: "I will not be the author of such a policy. I don't 
need to be blackmailed."  The President called Tymoshenko's policies 
excessive and said the adoption of the bill would lead to further 
deterioration of the economy and a weakening of the hryvnia.  NBU 
executives stated that the central bank does not have the money to 
support any extra-budgetary measures (Ref B). 
 
¶5. (U) Earlier in November, the government had said it would need 
UAH 3 billion ($375 million) to fight the flu.  With its budget 
stretched and the President balking at the GOU's efforts to force 
the NBU to print money, serious questions have arisen about 
Tymoshenko's ability to pay for the planned measures.  Her 
government had reportedly allocated UAH 50 million ($6.25 million) 
to prepare the country for the annual flu season and the potential 
outbreak of pandemic influenza.  Since the 2009 flu epidemic was 
officially confirmed on October 30, the GOU managed to gather an 
additional UAH 500 million ($62.5 million) to fund procurements of 
the antiviral drug Tamiflu and other medicines. 
 
 
 
GOVERNMENT MEASURES 
------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) Ukraine announced strict measures to combat the spread of 
the flu, including canceling schools and quarantining worst hit 
areas (Ref A).  However, local interpretation of the measures seems 
to vary.  In Kyiv, the Ministry of Culture ordered all theaters shut 
down but allowed other events, like the Champions League soccer 
match between Dynamo Kyiv and Inter Milan, to be played as 
scheduled.  In some cities, local authorities have demanded that 
people wear surgical masks when in public, while other 
municipalities merely recommend the measure. 
 
UKRAINIAN "TAMIFLU" RUNS AFOUL OF PATENT LAW 
 
KYIV 00001990  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (U) In one piece of good news, Zdorovya, a Kharkiv-based 
pharmaceutical company, announced on November 10 that it has begun 
producing Tamivir, a Ukrainian version of Tamiflu.  This move could 
relieve pressure on the government's limited supply of antiviral 
drugs.  However, the announcement was quickly followed by a 
complaint from Switzerland-based drug maker Roche that Zdorovya's 
production of Tamivir had violated international patent laws.  Roche 
reportedly has patent coverage for Oseltamivir (Tamiflu) in Ukraine 
and has not given permission to Zdorovya to produce a generic 
version of the drug. 
 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶8. (SBU) With a 2009 budget in severe deficit, Ukraine has few 
resources to fight the flu, particularly if the situation 
dramatically escalates.  Furthermore, it is beset with complications 
resulting from the intense rivalry between Ukraine's authorities. 
It is unclear whether the government has a viable strategy for its 
own limited resources and those donated by international donors. 
The findings of the WHO team, which are expected shortly, could 
provide some clarity on policy steps and assistance priorities. 
 
PETTIT