VZCZCXRO1448
RR RUEHBI RUEHCI RUEHNEH
DE RUEHCI #0317 3311048
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 271048Z NOV 09
FM AMCONSUL KOLKATA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2503
INFO RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 2399
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI 1016
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI 1013
RUEHNEH/AMCONSUL HYDERABAD 0079
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA 3125

UNCLAS KOLKATA 000317 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR SCA/INSB (TITUS) 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL IN
SUBJECT: OPPOSITION CONTINUES WINNING STREAK IN WEST BENGAL 
BY-ELECTIONS; CONFIRMS LEFT'S DOWNWARD SLIDE 
 
REF: A. KOLKATA 276 
     ¶B. KOLKATA 144 
 
¶1. (U) In West Bengal, the Opposition and independent parties 
won nine of the ten state assembly seats in the November 7 
by-elections to the state assembly.  They retained all seven 
previously held seats and snatched two from the ruling Left 
Front coalition.  Trinamool, the leading opposition party in 
West Bengal, continued the winning streak begun in 2008 with the 
local assembly polls, and won all seven seats contested. 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) In West Bengal, the Left's poor performance in this 
year's national parliamentary polls (Reftel B), municipal polls 
and the recent by-elections have prompted calls from both inside 
and outside of the Left Front for early state elections. 
According to the Indian constitution, state elections must be 
held within five years of forming a government; West Bengal 
state assembly elections are due by May 2011.  While the Left 
Front still has an overwhelming majority in the state assembly 
(231 of 295 members), this legislative majority no longer 
reflects the Left Front's much diminished political strength in 
West Bengal.  Several ministers from the ruling Left Front 
coalition, including the dominant party, the Communist Party of 
India - Marxist (CPI-M), have publicly spoken about the 
possibility of early elections as part of a strategy to minimize 
electoral losses.  The Opposition has argued for them citing the 
Left's lack of political support in the state, emphasizing the 
fact that it no longer represents the political will of the 
people.  However, on November 17 Left Front parties met and 
officially ruled out early elections.  The Chief Minister 
defended the decision citing that the people had elected the 
government in 2006 with a mandate to rule for five years.  Later 
that day, a senior CPI-M national parliamentarian and central 
committee member Shyamal Chakraborty confirmed to ConGen that 
early elections would not be called; however, his confirmation 
was less than assuring.  Furthermore, he contextualized any 
hypothetical Left Front loss in the next state elections with a 
reference to its 1972 defeat, following which it returned to 
power five years later and ruled uninterrupted for the next 32 
years.  His message was clear: we may lose the state assembly 
elections, but it will be a one-off setback and we will return 
even stronger. 
 
 
 
Comment 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU) The question in Bengal is not if the Opposition will 
displace the Left, but rather when.  Public discourse about the 
possibility of early elections, and Left Front politicians' 
discussion of any hypothetical loss, are additional signs that 
the Left is on its way out.  At this time, it does not appear 
that the West Bengal government will call for early elections as 
the party has concluded that early elections are not in the 
party's best interests.  While one cannot rule out tactical 
mistakes by the Opposition, public mood is clearly in favor of 
such change (Reftel A).  Post expects a Trinamool-led West 
Bengal government to be closer to U.S. positions than the CPI-M, 
given its lack of ideological opposition to the United States 
and participation in the current United Progressive Alliance 
government led by Manmohan Singh. 
 
 
 
¶4. (SBU) The CPI-M's loss of West Bengal will be a serious 
setback to the future of the party nationwide.  National parties 
derive a portion of their political power not only from the 
number of parliamentarians in New Delhi, but also the number of 
state governments that they lead.  Of the three state 
governments that the CPI-M leads (West Bengal, Kerala and 
Tripura), West Bengal is the most important politically, 
economically and culturally.  It is also the state where the 
CPI-M is most developed.  The Berlin Wall may have fallen more 
than 20 years ago, but a figurative "Bengal Wall" built by the 
CPI-M 32 years ago has not.  However, cracks are turning into 
fissures in one of the last remaining vestiges of the Cold War 
in India. 
 
PAYNE