VZCZCXRO0932
OO RUEHGR
DE RUEHKG #0992/01 3281329
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 241328Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY KINGSTON
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 0271
INFO EC CARICOM COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 0086
RUEHOT/AMEMBASSY OTTAWA IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 KINGSTON 000992 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
STATE FOR WHA/CAR (JMACK-WILSON) (RALVARADO) (VDEPIRRO) (WSMITH) 
WHA/EPSC (MROONEY) (FCORNEILLE) 
EEB/IFD/OMA 
WHA/PPC (JGONZALEZ) 
INR/RES (RWARNER) 
INR/I (SMCCORMICK) 
SANTO DOMINGO FOR FCS AND FAS 
TREASURY FOR ERIN NEPHEW 
EXPORT IMPORT BANK FOR ANNETTE MARESH 
AMEMBASSY BRIDGETOWN PASS TO AMEMBASSY GRENADA 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PINR ASEC ECON EFIN CJAN CVIS KCOR KCRM IMF JM
XL 
SUBJECT: JAMAICA: RULING PARTY BLAMES OPPOSITION FOR CURRENT FISCAL 
TRAVAILS, BUT OFFERS LITTLE PRESCRIPTION 
 
REF: KINGSTON 964; KINGSTON 697; KINGSTON 800; KINGSTON 978 
KINGSTON 709; KINGSTON 737; KINGSTON 924; KINGSTON 712 
 
KINGSTON 00000992  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
Summary: 
 
------------- 
 
 
 
¶1. (U) At its scaled back November 22 annual party conference, an 
embattled Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) defended its two years in 
office and attributed much of the nation's economic and fiscal 
travails to the "inheritance" left by the opposition People's 
National Party (PNP).  In a somber and serious tone, at odds with 
the fiery political rhetoric of his fellow Labourites, Prime 
Minister  (PM) Bruce Golding insisted that the Government of 
Jamaica (GOJ) would not default on its public debts, although he 
offered few specifics and no announcements of major breakthroughs 
in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund or in the 
continuing Christopher Coke extradition request.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
"Cleaning Up The Messes" 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (U) Meeting at Kingston's National Arena, the same venue the PNP 
used for its boisterous annual conference in September, the JLP 
rally was a much more subdued and orderly affair, although both 
were marked by fiery religious exhortations and loud snippets of 
dance hall music.  The party faithful, most dressed in JLP green, 
were corralled behind barricades as party leaders drove home in a 
series of short speeches what seemed to be the JLP's implicit 
theme: it's been a difficult two years since the 2007 general 
elections, but the JLP is not to blame.  Instead, Jamaica's 
perilous economic and social problems (Ref A) were attributed to 
the unforeseen global economic recession and to the PNP's eighteen 
prior years in office.  In fact, JLP General Secretary Karl Samuda 
maintained that much of the GOJ's efforts over the past two years 
had been directed toward "cleaning up the messes" left by the PNP 
and putting "Jamaica on a path of sustainable development for the 
first time in its history."  Characterizing the PNP as "steeped in 
corruption" and having squandered opportunities to nurture economic 
growth during its tenure, Samuda lauded Golding and the JLP for 
their "competence," "determination," and "good leadership." 
 
 
 
¶3. (U) The public session began with an invocation by Tivoli 
Gardens' Pastor Patricia Hall in which she exhorted government 
ministers to "go into your ministries and pick out the demons 
because there are some people that are trying to bring down your 
ministry," implying that PNP partisans in the civil service were 
thwarting JLP policies (NOTE: Tivoli Gardens is a garrison 
community run by Christopher Coke, the subject of a contentious 
U.S. extradition request.  Ref B.  End Note).  Dr. Kenneth Baugh, 
Foreign Minister and Deputy Prime Minister,  hailed the GOJ's good 
relations with China, India, and the European Union, conspicuously 
omitting any mention of the U.S., while Minister of Energy James 
Robertson hailed the JLP's implementation of a comprehensive energy 
strategy to move the nation from reliance on crude oil in favor of 
a more diversified energy mix including liquefied natural gas 
(LNG). 
 
KINGSTON 00000992  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶4. (U) Maintaining that the JLP had "done more in two years than 
the PNP did in 18," Delano Seiveright, the newly-elected president 
of the JLP's Generation 2000 (G2K) youth organization, rattled off 
a number of campaign promises on which the JLP had delivered: the 
removal of public school tuition fees, abolition of user fees in 
public hospitals, expansion of agricultural output, plans to 
revitalize downtown Kingston, and the reestablishment of borrowing 
relationships with multilateral organizations.  Accusing the PNP of 
having "no moral authority," Seiveright also highlighted the JLP's 
efforts at countering the "corruption and scandal" of the 
opposition.  Excoriating the media as "apologists for the PNP," 
Finance Minister Audley Shaw attacked the PNP's "mismanagement and 
indiscretions" and, referring to his PNP predecessor by name, 
bemoaned the fact that "sixty percent of every tax dollar [is 
spent] to service Omar Davies' legacy."  Referring to a recent 
article in The Economist that questioned whether Jamaica's problems 
were "unfixable," Shaw delivered a fiery diatribe against the 
leaders of the PNP, alleging that "Peter Bunting can't fix it, 
Peter Phillips can't fix it, and Sister P (PNP President Portia 
Simpson Miller), you can't fix it either!"  Reverting to Jamaican 
patois, Shaw concluded "tell dem seh, dey out of fashion!  Dey gone 
out of style!" 
 
 
 
"It's Time For A Reality Check" 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) PM Golding entered the hall to tremendous fanfare, but the 
excitement and energy seemed to quickly dissipate as he delivered a 
lackluster speech with little of the partisan enthusiasm and 
flourishes of earlier speakers.  Unlike those who had preceded him 
to the podium, Golding largely avoided incendiary political 
rhetoric and made no direct references to the PNP at all, claiming 
instead to "have come not to look back, not to cast blame...[not 
to] quarrel with those who might be quarrelsome."  Making use of a 
number of metaphors - "we are caught in the middle of the desert," 
"[the IMF] is like a doctor who examines, diagnoses and prescribes 
treatment" - Golding harkened back to his 2007 general election 
pledge that he would be Jamaica's "driver," adding that now "it is 
not just a new driver that [is]needed...the old bus needs major 
repairs."  However, as he has done on a number of occasions over 
the past year, Golding largely stuck to generalities and offered 
few details as to how the GOJ would address the nation's fiscal 
problems (Ref C). 
 
 
 
¶6. (U) Implying that the PNP had brought on the current economic 
crisis by "[f]or years...spending more than we earn, putting aside 
nothing for the rainy day" while affirming that the global 
recession's "effects on our economy and our people were 
devastating," Golding nevertheless maintained that Jamaica was not 
"living beyond our means," insisting that "we need to spend more - 
not less - on our schools, hospitals and roads."  Instead, the PM 
declared that Jamaica's economic problems lay in the fact that "we 
are not doing enough to earn enough" and that "the little money 
that we have is not being spent as wisely as it should."  Given 
that over 87 percent of the GOJ's USD 6.5 billion budget is 
targeted toward public sector salaries, government operations, and 
debt servicing, the remaining USD 811 million is insufficient to 
"put medicine and supplies in our hospitals, build more schools, 
provide lunch for our school children, put gas in the police 
vehicles, fix our roads and run pipes to bring water to rural 
households."  As a result of the global recession, Golding noted 
that Jamaica had lost almost USD 1.5 billion in foreign exchange 
flows due to declining remittance payments (Ref D), a reduction in 
foreign direct investments, and the collapse of the bauxite 
industry due to falling international demand. 
 
KINGSTON 00000992  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶7. (U) Faced with some of the highest interest rates and one of the 
highest debt ratios in the world, Golding outlined a four-pronged 
fiscal program including: 
 
 
 
a.       Fiscal remedies to balance the GOJ budget, including 
reductions in public sector bureaucracy (NOTE: Golding proposed 
similar cuts in an after-midnight address to Parliament in 
September and has appointed a Public Sector Transformation Unit to 
develop proposals for consideration.  Ref E.  End Note), although 
the PM rejected cuts for schools, police, and hospitals; 
 
 
 
b.      a medium-term economic program to revitalize key sectors of 
the economy, including agriculture, energy, bauxite, and small 
businesses; 
 
 
 
c.       policy measures, including tax reform and anti-corruption 
efforts, and; 
 
 
 
d.      debt management, including a much-anticipated IMF agreement 
(REF F) that Golding hinted would entail reductions in interest 
rate payments, which currently account for ten percent of GDP, as 
well as a reorientation of the nation's debt burden from domestic 
and international capital markets to multilateral agencies in order 
to reduce borrowing costs and free up private sector credit. 
However, the PM insisted that "holders of government bonds are 
assured that our contractual obligations to them remain 
inviolable."  Announcing that "there is no alternative to borrowing 
from the IMF," Golding seemed to telegraph that the multilateral 
would likely impose onerous fiscal policies on the GOJ, but 
insisted that "the IMF is not forcing anything on us" and that "it 
is we who must decide to take that treatment." 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) Golding made no mention of the standoff between the U.S. 
and the GOJ over the U.S. extradition request for Christopher Coke, 
a politically-connected don who controls the Tivoli Gardens 
garrison community in Golding's West Kingston constituency (Ref G). 
Golding warned that "[i]t matters not if you are a Labourite, it 
matters not how hard you worked to help us to win the election.  If 
any of you is caught in any corrupt activity, expect the full force 
of the law and do not look to me or the government for any sympathy 
or protection."  (NOTE: It is not clear if Golding's statement 
should be taken ironically or as a signal of the GOJ's intentions 
regarding the Coke extradition request.  End Note). 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) Delano Seiveright told Emboff that the PM had made a 
conscious choice in his speech to "dial back" the political 
rhetoric due to the sensitive nature of the GOJ's IMF and Coke 
extradition deliberations, but agreed that the result was a 
lackluster and uninspiring presentation that sapped the auditorium 
of much of the energy and enthusiasm that had been built up by the 
previous speakers.  More optimistically, Member of Parliament 
Andrew Gallimore told Emboff that the conference had been 
successful in demonstrating that the JLP remained united behind PM 
Golding's leadership despite the myriad difficulties facing 
Jamaica. 
 
 
 
Analysis: 
 
KINGSTON 00000992  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
------------ 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) At its annual conference, the JLP was obviously at pains 
to present itself as united, organized, and at peace, in contrast 
with the PNP which has been riven by internal divisions, strategic 
missteps, and leadership challenges since its 2007 general election 
defeat (NOTE: At its September conference, the PNP made an effort 
to present itself as unified and having settled its leadership 
issues, although whether this is in fact the case remains to be 
seen.  Ref H.  End Note).  Golding devoted little attention to 
Jamaica's spiraling crime wave, and no mention was made of the Coke 
extradition request that has drawn considerable media attention in 
recent months.  Finally, continuing what has become a pattern over 
the past year, Golding missed an opportunity to detail before a 
friendly audience the "painful" corrections to address the nation's 
economic problems that he has been warning of for months, promising 
only that the GOJ would "very shortly be outlining in Parliament 
the terms of the IMF agreement" as well as the specifics of the 
economic and fiscal programs he'd proposed.  Golding's image in 
Jamaica's financial and political circles is increasingly one of 
uncertainty and indecisiveness; his speech before his party 
faithful did little to challenge that assessment.  End Analysis. 
Parnell