VZCZCXRO2924
OO RUEHDT RUEHPB
DE RUEHHM #0665/01 3341719
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O P 301719Z NOV 09
FM AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6141
INFO RUEHHI/AMEMBASSY HANOI PRIORITY 4037
RUCPDOC/USDOC WASHDC PRIORITY 0155
RUEHRC/DEPT OF AGRICULTURE USD FAS WASHINGTON DC
RUEAEPA/EPA WASHINGTON DC
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHHM/AMCONSUL HO CHI MINH CITY 6384
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/DEPT OF INTERIOR WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HO CHI MINH CITY 000665 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/MLS, OES AND INL 
DEPT PASS USAID TO LAC/RSD, LAC/SAM, G/ENV, PPC/ENV 
JUSTICE FOR ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES (JWEBB) 
EPA FOR INTERNATIONAL (MKASMAN, KBUCKLEY) 
COMMERCE FOR ITA/MAC/HONG-PHONG PHO 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON EAGR ETRD SENV SOCI TBIO VM
SUBJECT: DELTA MEKONG CLIMATE CHANGE FORUM A GOOD START, BUT JUST THE 
BEGINNING 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000665  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The First Mekong Delta Climate Change Forum 
brought experts, government officials, donors and organizations 
under one roof and spurred debate about climate change issues in 
Vietnam.  The Mekong Delta is particularly at risk to rising sea 
levels, increased salinity intrusion, and extreme weather 
patterns, as well as other imminent environmental issues such as 
hydropower dams upstream on the Mekong River and industrial 
waste.  Provincial authorities are starting to implement the 
national government's plan to address mitigation and adaptation 
measures but to translate that will into action, the Mekong 
Delta still needs comprehensive research coordination, more 
funding, proper planning and effective management.  The renewed 
cooperation of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) with the Delta 
Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) Institute at 
Can Tho University as well as other U.S. technical and financial 
assistance will provide critical support to Vietnam's efforts. 
End Summary. 
 
Mekong Delta is Among World's Most at Risk Ecosystems 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
¶2. (SBU) Projected rising sea levels will have near catastrophic 
consequences for the nearly 20 million (22 percent of Vietnam's 
population) that live in the Mekong Delta, domestic and 
international researchers argued at the November 12-13 Vietnam 
Climate Change Conference in Can Tho city.  According to the 
Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE)'s 
estimates, a one meter sea level rise would submerge over one 
third of the Mekong Delta, affecting 50 percent of Vietnam's 
rice production and almost all of its rice exports, 60 percent 
of its aquaculture, and 80 percent of the fruit crop. 
Researchers noted that the delta's water level rise is expected 
to be twice the level of sea level rise due to several factors, 
including prevailing winds and equator spin.  A Can Tho 
University researcher warned that changing weather patterns have 
also deepened and lengthened flooding in the rainy season, while 
producing more extreme droughts in the dry season. 
 
¶3. (SBU) As less water flows down the Mekong river from 
Cambodia, salt water intrusion will render much of the Mekong 
Delta unusable for agriculture.  According to Dr. Ky Quang Vinh, 
Director of the Natural Resources and Environmental Monitoring 
Center in the Mekong Delta's largest city of Can Tho, five years 
ago salt water encroached as far as 70km (42 miles) up the 
Mekong river; however, since then due to the easterly winds, 
salt water intrusion has come primarily from the Phu Quoc Bay, 
destroying rice crops in An Giang, the province with the delta's 
largest output.  Dr. Vinh noted that while the sea water level 
has increased by 20 centimeters over the past 10 years, the peak 
water mark measuring Mekong River flows into Vietnam has fallen 
from 4.5 to 3.5 meters, and annual rainfall had also dropped by 
200 millimeters in the same period.  Less fresh water quickly 
translates into increasing acid surface water in rice paddies 
and declining yields, agronomists pointed out. 
 
Senior Leadership Waking to the Threat 
-------------------------------------- 
¶4. (U) In the face of this challenge, Vietnam's top leadership 
has begun to take notice.  The fact that the Chairman of the 
Office of Government Nguyen Xuan Phuc and the Minister of MONRE 
Pham Khoi Nguyen attended the conference, as well as Mekong 
Delta top environment and agriculture officials, demonstrates 
GVN's increasing climate change awareness and political will to 
address the issue.  Many provincial authorities spoke very 
generally about climate change and did not appear to have 
sophisticated understanding of the complexities involved. 
ConGen Staff also spoke to a representative of the Communist 
Party's mass mobilization apparatus, the Vietnam Fatherland 
Front, who said she hopes to spread and raise climate change 
awareness with farmers at the grassroots level.  Conference 
organizers MONRE pointed out in the closing remarks that the 
room was still packed at the end of the conference, a rarity at 
conferences in Vietnam, denoting the high interest and stakes 
GVN and international participants have in the issue. 
 
Data and Dikes Show Vietnam Has a Long Way to Go 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
¶5. (SBU) Consistent data is hard to come by in Vietnam, despite 
the fact that the World Bank tracks 272 projects on climate 
change mitigation/adaptation currently planned or underway in 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000665  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
Vietnam; many are in the assessment stage.  Statistics in the 
various presentations were sometimes conflicting.  Provincial 
officials like Mr. Ha Ngoc Chau from the HCMC Climate Change 
Task Force called for better access to data and coordination of 
research efforts, complaining that his department has difficulty 
getting research data from MONRE.  Both ADB Country Director 
Ayumi Konishi and MONRE Minister Nguyen argued "not enough 
research" should not be a substitute for concrete action. 
 
¶6. (SBU) For most officials, "concrete action" apparently meant 
planning and building dikes to tackle climate change.  When 
designed and constructed properly, dikes can reduce salinity in 
incoming surface water, however, they are extremely costly and 
only one small measure against the problem, particularly because 
they do not prevent salinity from penetrating groundwater 
sources.  In response, researchers stressed that action plans 
must be appropriate to the intricacies of each province, which 
can vary substantially in terms of topography, tidal waves and 
productive activities.  The ability of provincial authorities to 
effectively implement and manage climate change programs is 
still questionable.  According to Germany's GTZ Project Manager, 
Klaus Schmitt, many of the sea dikes that have already been 
constructed in Soc Trang province were done so poorly that they 
actually have caused more damage than they've prevented. 
 
A Convenient Way to Shift Blame 
------------------------------- 
¶7. (SBU) Another potential concern is that GVN officials may use 
climate change as a scapegoat for issues that are only 
marginally related.  In her presentation, a Ministry of Health 
official attributed several public health diseases, including 
A/H1N1 virus, as "caused by climate change."  Similarly, climate 
change may be used as a substitute for manager accountability. 
For example, after media criticized Ba Ha hydropower plant in 
Phu Yen province for discharging high water levels without 
warning in the midst of Typhoon Miranae, Deputy Prime Minister 
Hoang Trung Hai dismissed the situation as being a result of 
climate change, in effect shutting off a line of inquiry as to 
whether human error or lack of GVN coordination may have also 
been responsible. 
 
¶8. (SBU) Also, MONRE Minister Nguyen aggressively questioned 
World Bank and ADB representatives at the forum, challenging 
them to take a stance in the debate between greenhouse gas 
emitting countries and the "victims of climate change", 
including Vietnam, in the upcoming Copenhagen Climate Change 
Summit. (Note: Vietnam's GHG emissions have grown at the fastest 
rate in the world over the past decade.  It won't be long before 
Vietnam is considered an emitting country.) 
 
U.S. Assistance to Vietnam on Climate Change Issues 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
¶9. (SBU) The U.S. Geological Survey will work through the Delta 
Research and Global Observation Network (DRAGON) to cooperate on 
environmental and climate change issues and will joint-sponsor a 
four day conference next month in Can Tho to initiate "Forecast 
Mekong", a predictive modeling tool to illustrate the impact of 
climate change on the lower Mekong Basin.  In addition, two 
USAID Regional Development Mission of Asia assessment teams 
recently traveled to HCMC and Can Tho to look at climate change 
and food security issues.  Further financial and technical 
assistance to support implementation of Vietnam's National 
Target Plan and other climate change initiatives in the Mekong 
Delta could make a significant impact. 
 
Comment 
------- 
¶10. (SBU) This conference was originally scheduled for October 
for a couple dozen officials, but MONRE was overwhelmed by 
domestic and international demand that outstripped its resources 
and planning ability.  To its credit, the organizers regrouped 
and stepped back up, hosting two hundred diverging and often 
contradictory viewpoints.  The threat climate change poses to 
the Mekong Delta obviously goes well beyond the environment, to 
include food and water security, the economy, migration, public 
health, and national security.  Because Vietnam lacks a 
comprehensive scientific research basis, fragmented local 
research efforts cannot be integrated and well coordinated on 
the regional level.  GVN and donors alike recognize the need for 
 
HO CHI MIN 00000665  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
more coordination in order to reduce duplication and maximize 
effectiveness of adaptation and mitigation efforts.  While 
climate change issues are important over the long term, other 
environmental threats, including discharges of industrial wastes 
and the effects of upstream hydropower development on Mekong 
River, some of which are being built by Vietnamese investors in 
Laos and Cambodia, were scarcely mentioned and will also require 
attention for limited resources.  End comment. 
 
¶11. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Hanoi. 
FAIRFAX