VZCZCXRO6278
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHHE #0406/01 3061448
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 021448Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5238
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 HELSINKI 000406 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ETRD EPET SENV RS FI
SUBJECT: FINNS DEBATE NORD STREAM AS GOVERNMENT'S 
REVIEW NEARS END 
 
HELSINKI 00000406  001.2 OF 003 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY. Prime Minister Vanhanen said his 
Government (GOF) would decide whether to grant an 
Exclusive Economic Zone license for the Nord Stream 
pipeline project by November 5.  If the GOF approves 
the license it then decide whether to grant a 
construction permit for the project, a process could 
conclude as early as December.  The public debate over 
the last two years has been limited and largely non- 
contentious, owing both to the GOF's insistence that 
the process is based on law and fact and not politics 
or international relations, and to public opinion that 
is neither strongly for or against the project.  As the 
GOF's review draws to a close, public debate has 
increased, revealing criticism of the GOF?s handling of 
security and environmental issues.  Recent 
Parliamentary debate reflected the same criticism but 
also broad agreement that the project would bring 
Russia closer to Europe, and would bring more 
environmentally friendly fuel to an area dominated by 
coal.  Should the GOF's neutral process result in 
license and permit approvals, the GOF might face 
criticism if the public sees Russia as receiving a 
benefit while it fails to take action to address 
persistent environmental problems in the Baltic Sea. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
GOF review of pipeline project draws to close 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U)  Prime Minister Vanhanen, after his October 25 
to meet with Russian Prime Minister Putin, stated that 
the GOF will render its decision on a license for the 
Nord Stream natural gas pipeline project by November 
¶5.  The review by the Ministry of Employment and 
Economy, which commenced November 2006, will determine 
whether the project is permissible in Finland's 
Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).  Should the GOF approve 
the EEZ license, a new process will commence: the 
Western Finland Environmental Authority (WFEA) will 
decide whether to approve a construction permit under 
Finland's water legislation.  The WFEA could render a 
decision as soon as December.  While the water license 
decision is appealable under Finnish law, a GOF 
official told Pol/Econ Chief that the project could 
proceed during the pendency of any appeal.  (NOTE: On 
October 2 Nord Stream received a permit from the WFEA 
for munitions clearance.  A court has suspended any 
munitions clearance as part of a case brought by Finns 
who have made a mining claim on the Baltic seabed (a 
claim widely seen as an attempt to prevent or delay the 
pipeline project).  A Nord Stream representative 
publicly said he sees no problem, as Nord Stream will 
not conduct munitions clearance in the area under 
claim.  END NOTE.) 
 
¶3. (SBU) Official statements and public debate on the 
pipeline project have been muted through most of the 
review process.  GOF officials have insisted that the 
review is a neutral law-and-fact-based process, 
divorced from politics and international relations.  As 
stated recently by a prominent Bank of Finland 
official, countries can put down cables and pipes in 
another country's EEZ in conformity with international 
law, and Finland cannot forbid a pipeline project that 
is "appropriately implemented." 
 
Polling shows modest support and opposition 
------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) The quiet progression of the review may also 
stem from public opinion that neither strongly supports 
or opposes the project.  According to a poll conducted 
last July, 46 percent of Finns would grant Nord Stream 
the gas pipeline building permit, whereas 40 percent 
would not and 14 percent were unsure.   Within the 
governing coalition, members of the two main parties, 
Center Party and National Coalition Party (NCP), 
narrowly supported the project (46 favoring, 40 percent 
opposing) while Green Party members had a slight 
majority opposing (53 percent).  Support was higher for 
those in the opposition: 59 percent of Social Democrats 
and 53 percent of the (populist) True Finns would grant 
the license.  While not reaching a majority, more Finns 
saw the pipeline's construction as a threat to the 
environment, fishing and shipping industry (45 percent) 
than saw little threat (32 percent). 
 
Finns speak up in final days 
--------------------------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) As the GOF's review nears its end the public 
 
HELSINKI 00000406  002.2 OF 003 
 
 
debate has increased.  Critics question whether the GOF 
has given sufficient consideration of the project's 
security implications and to wider environmental 
concerns.  On October 21, Juha Puistola, a staff member 
of the National Defense College, publicly criticized 
the GOF for fostering a "one-sided" debate focused on 
the environment, not one also addressing the security 
implications.  Puistola asserted that the GOF failed to 
address the increased strategic importance of the 
Baltic Sea for Russia with a pipeline in place, and the 
resulting increase of Russia's influence in Europe. 
 
¶6. (SBU) Former GOF officials also recently spoke out 
about the project: former Prime Minister (and current 
advisor to Nord Stream) Paavo Lipponen expressed 
support for the GOF's environmentally-focused approach 
to the project, stating that the pipeline promotes 
Finland's traditional role as a "cooperation partner" 
between east and west.  Former President Mauno Koivisto 
said he has no worries about the security implications, 
and has "followed the debate with great calmness." 
 
Parliament debates Nord Stream 
------------------------------ 
 
¶7. (U)  On October 8 the Parliament debated the Nord 
Stream project in a plenary session.  Security and 
environmental concerns, both focused on Russia, 
dominated the discussion.  Those raising environmental 
concerns made a connection between Russia's interest in 
laying a pipeline in Finland's EEZ and Finland's 
interest in Russia addressing sewage emissions into the 
Baltic from Kaliningrad and Russia's failure to join 
relevant environmental treaties like the Espoo 
Convention.  Those raising security concerns wondered 
about the failure of the GOF to publicly address 
security aspects of the project, and more specifically 
about an increased presence of Russian naval vessels in 
the Baltic (with a possible impact on Finnish 
shipping).  The debate revealed widespread agreement 
that the project would bring Russia closer to Europe, 
and would bring more environmentally friendly fuel to 
an area dominated by coal. 
 
Ministers separate politics from the process 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶8. (U) Members of the Cabinet participated in the 
Parliament's debate.  Minister of Economic Affairs 
Mauri Pekkarinen (Center Party) started the session by 
emphasizing that Finland cannot forbid a pipeline 
project that is appropriately implemented.   Pekkarinen 
and Foreign Minister Stubb (NCP) rejected suggestions 
that the license's approval be linked to specific 
environmental issues like Kaliningrad's wastewater 
problem and ratification of the Espoo Convention. 
Regarding security, Pekkarinen stated that the absence 
of a pipeline might actually result in an increased 
Russian naval presence in the Baltic, given an expected 
dramatic increase of ships transporting liquefied 
natural gas. Stubb and Minister of Defense Jyri 
Hakamies (NCP) insisted that there is no reason to 
assume that anyone wants to use the pipeline as a 
pretext to increase tension in the Baltic Sea region. 
 
NATO mostly outside the debate 
------------------------------ 
 
¶9. (U) NATO has played virtually no part in the wider 
public discussion of the project.  During the 
Parliament's plenary session one parliamentarian from 
the (largely) pro-NATO NCP, Kimmo Sasi, pointed out the 
role played by NATO member Germany in the pipeline's 
construction.  He suggested that Finland should invite 
NATO to discuss the future of the pipeline, and even 
join NATO itself. This prompted an outburst of "Sasi is 
bringing NATO to the Baltic Sea!" by a member of the 
Left Alliance, a small opposition party opposed to 
Finland's NATO membership.  Separately, Juha Puistola, 
National Defense College staff who publicly lamented 
the GOF's alleged failure to address security 
implications, concluded that he saw a security benefit 
to the project, as the mutual interest in the 
pipeline's protection would encourage cooperation; he 
said it was far-fetched to think that the pipeline 
would bring Russia and NATO into conflict. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶10. (SBU)  The GOF has succeeded in keeping its review 
 
HELSINKI 00000406  003.2 OF 003 
 
 
of the pipeline project from becoming a contentious 
domestic political issue.  Mixed public opinion, and 
mixed support and criticism across the political 
parties, helped keep it a back-burner issue.  Assuming 
the GOF grants all approvals and the project moves 
forward, the GOF could be in for future criticism, 
should the public conclude that Russia has taken no 
action to improve its environmental record in the 
Baltic. 
 
ORECK