VZCZCXRO0624
OO RUEHAG RUEHDF RUEHLZ
DE RUEHFT #2978/01 3211632
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
O 171632Z NOV 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2441
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002978 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOVGM
SUBJECT: First German "Jamaica" Coalition Government Takes 
         Office 
 
1.(SBU)Summary:  Saarland's Jamaica coalition is writing political 
history in Germany.  The first German three-party "Jamaica" 
coalition government made up of Christian Democrats (CDU), Free 
Liberals (FDP) and the Green Party was sworn into office on November 
10 in Saarland.  Incumbent Minister President Peter Mueller (CDU) 
remains in office with the FDP and Green parties each getting two 
ministries.  Potential governing challenges lie in how the State 
will vote in future Bundesrat sessions.  Left Party Caucus Chief, 
Oskar Lafontaine, is not expected to play a strong role in the 
opposition, since his interests are more national in scope and he is 
reported not to be in good health.  Germany's political 
establishment remains intrigued by the viability of a "Jamaica" 
coalition option.  Saarland will therefore be closely observed to 
see if this political development at the state level has potential 
implications for national politics.  End Summary. 
 
 
JAMAICAN OPTIMISM PREVAILS 
-------------------------- 
¶2. (SBU)Minister-President Peter Mueller and his ministers were in 
high spirits when they were sworn in on November 10 with 27 of the 
41 Parliamentary seats occupied by members of the CDU-FDP-Green 
coalition government (26 seats is a majority).  "This is a project 
that will influence the political landscape far beyond Saarland," 
said Mueller.  FDP Chairman Christoph Hartmann stressed that the new 
government is a "huge success in the FDP's history."  CDU 
Parliamentarian Roland Theis, however, noted that Saarland provided 
a unique venue for this "experiment" since the state's small size 
meant that personal connections between politicians (and the 
population in general) made them more willing to work with 
non-traditional political partners. 
 
¶3. (SBU)The Green Party was very content with achieving 5.9 percent 
of the vote in the August 30 election. They will control two 
ministries -- including the Ministry of the Environment - the same 
number as the FDP, which had 11.9 percent of the vote.  The Greens 
prevailed on core issues within the coalition agreement, with the 
CDU and FDP agreeing with the government's pre-2000 nuclear 
decommissioning agreement. (Note: This conflicts with the 
CDU/CSU-FDP national coalition agreement.  End note.)  The coalition 
agreement also calls for the elimination of fees for university 
students.  Green Party members denied that they had become too 
centrist by joining a coalition with the CDU and FDP.  Green 
parliamentarian Markus Schmitt was visibly upbeat when he said that 
"the Green Party is left, right and in the middle.  The time of 
putting the Greens in one corner is over."  For Georg Jungmann, 
deputy caucus chief of the CDU, the Green party has now achieved a 
centrist "power position" able to form coalitions with the left or 
the right. 
 
 
OPPOSITION STILL REGROUPING 
--------------------------- 
4.(SBU)Heiko Maas, head of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) and now 
opposition leader in the State Parliament, was visibly disturbed by 
the November 10 ceremony.  He left the parliament shortly after the 
ceremony and declined to comment to the media.  Cornelia 
Hoffmann-Bethscheider, deputy caucus chief of the SPD, told 
Consulate representatives that the Green Party's Chairman Hubert 
Ulrich had planned the Jamaica coalition from the start and was 
never really open to a SPD-Green-Left Party coalition (so-called 
Red-Red-Green). Left Party parliamentarian Barbara Spaniol echoed 
this sentiment.   However, Spaniol said that the Left Party did not 
need the Greens anyway and is looking forward to keeping the new 
governing coalition on its toes by working in opposition to them. 
 
5.(SBU)Oskar Lafontaine, Left Party Caucus Chief in Saarland and 
co-chair of the national party, was not present for the ceremony as 
he was in Berlin for Chancellor Merkel's Bundestag speech.  One CDU 
and one SPD source told Consulate Representatives that they expect 
Lafontaine to leave the Left caucus sometime next year since 
Lafontaine's health is not good.  They also indicated that 
Lafontaine might retire from politics in the not too distant future, 
although specifics were lacking. 
 
 
CONSEQUENCES FOR FEDERAL POLITICS 
--------------------------------- 
¶6. (SBU) The three-party Jamaica coalition government may prove 
challenging for future votes in the Bundesrat where Saarland has 
three votes.  These votes must (by law) always be submitted as a 
block.  If required to vote on an issue in the Bundesrat where the 
CDU/FDP and Greens do not traditionally agree, such as nuclear power 
plant decommissioning, it is unclear how Saarland will vote. 
Mueller, who will lead the Bundesrat delegation, will be bound by 
his Jamaica coalition agreement to vote against any effort by the 
federal CDU and FDP government to extend the timeline for 
 
FRANKFURT 00002978  002 OF 002 
 
 
decommissioning German nuclear power plants.  As it seems unlikely 
that he will vote against his own CDU federal party, Saarland may be 
forced to abstain in such a vote.  Subsequently, if coalition 
governments start abstaining from votes in the Bundesrat due to 
similar concessions made in state-level coalition governments, this 
will provide new challenges overall in governance in Germany. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: The first three-party coalition government in 
Germany's history may be a necessary consequence of the emerging 
five party system in Germany, but it is too early to know if this 
trend will continue.  Equally interesting is whether the Green Party 
will continue to serve as the "kingmaker" in future coalition 
negotiations, given that they are able to work with both sides of 
the political spectrum.  With the Greens aligned with the CDU and 
FDP, the Saarland SPD faces an unclear future as it may have lost 
its "natural" coalition partner.    End Comment. 
 
¶8. (U) This cable has been coordinated with US Embassy Berlin. 
 
 
ALFORD