VZCZCXRO8872
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1440/01 3291432
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 251432Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3393
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DAKAR 001440 
 
SIPDIS 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS KDEM ECON SG
SUBJECT: Casamance: Increased Violence and a Potential New Leader 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Between November 2-4, PolCouns visited the 
Casamance to assess the region's volatile security situation where 
road hijackings by armed gunmen have become commonplace. 
Additionally, a border quarrel between Senegal and Guinea-Bissau 
near Cabrousse has created tensions that have led to a significant 
increase in the presence of both militaries which resulted in a 
standoff, but so far has not developed into an active conflict.  End 
Summary. 
 
Rebels at the Door of Ziguinchor 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) In the past, fighters from the Movement of Democratic 
Forces of Casamance (MFDC) had avoided static positions near towns 
and villages for fear of being shelled.  But in a bold recent move 
they attacked the village of Baraf, two miles from the regional 
capital Ziguinchor, and now occupy the school of Baraf.  The Prefect 
of Ziguinchor told Embassy that they had relocated 200 elementary 
school students from Baraf to the city of Ziguinchor and wondered 
why the state was not doing anything to dislodge the rebels.  The 
Governor of Ziguinchor promised the people of Baraf that the state 
would protect them, but those who tried to return to Baraf were 
threatened by rebels and had to leave their homes again.  The 
Governor has since been changed and replaced by Cheikh Tidiane 
Dieng, the former Governor of Tambacounda, who is reputed to be 
close to the ruling party.  The rebels are apparently occupying 
Baraf because it sits at a crucial crossroads for produce coming 
from the south on its way to Ziguinchor and then north. 
 
The Prodigal Son 
---------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) President Abdoulaye Wade recently appointed the Mayor of 
Ziguinchor, Abdoulaye Balde, to be the new Minister of Defense. 
This puts Balde at the heart of the Casamance crisis during a period 
characterized by the lack of a serious peace initiatives and the 
paralysis of the political wing of the MFDC.  It is not clear if 
Balde will be willing to invest his political capital in this 
complex crisis - a feeling that was echoed by the chair of the 
Regional Council of Ziguinchor.  A close aide to Balde confided to 
PolCouns that he is not in a position to cross partisan lines to 
bring together all the actors who can help piece together the peace 
puzzle in the Casamance.  He noted that Balde is a prisoner of his 
supporters, who see Casamance politics as a zero sum game. 
 
Unified command 
--------------- 
 
¶4. (SBU) In the absence of a credible political branch, the military 
wing of the MFDC now leads the way and this partly accounts for the 
fierce leadership battle that has erupted among various factions. 
Several sources close to the MFDC told PolCouns that the MFDC is now 
closer than ever to having a unified command.  The man who may take 
charge is Mamadou Niantang Diatta, from Kartiak in northern 
Casamance.  He allegedly occupies the base that used to be the 
stronghold of Salif Sadio known as Etat Major near Guinea-Bissau. 
Salif allegedly agreed to give up his command for a unified one 
under Niantang Diatta.  Diatta wishes to have a non-bloody 
transition and his approach is to have Cesar Atoute Badiate and 
other prominent rebels form a consultative body around him in the 
new command. 
 
Cabrousse Border Dispute 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) A new element that may influence the Casamance conflict is 
the border dispute between Senegal and Guinea-Bissau.  The dispute 
started when Victor Mandiga, a former Minister of Finance of 
Guinea-Bissau, allegedly tried to build a hotel on a piece of land 
belonging to Guinea-Bissau stretching from the village of 
Boudiediete to Cap Roxo (near Cap Skiring in Senegal).  Mandiga 
built his own PVC border markers painted in red and white and 
planted them to make the border visible.  The border in that area is 
demarcated by three almost invisible concrete stones, known as 
markers 182, 183, and 184, left by the Portuguese.  This land is 
traditionally cultivated by local Senegalese villagers who believe 
it is part of Senegal and had even authorized a small hotel to be 
built there.  As the border area is not directly accessible from 
Guinea-Bissau one has to either go through the border post of Mpack 
(in Senegal) or cross a river by pirogue.  The people of Cabrousse 
not only uprooted and threw away Mandiga's border markers but they 
also destroyed the coconut tress he had planted on this piece of 
land allegedly allocated to him by the Government of Guinea-Bissau. 
 
Guinea-Bissau soldiers march into Senegal 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) During the week of October 19, a company of Bissau Guinean 
 
DAKAR 00001440  002 OF 002 
 
 
soldiers crossed the river and occupied the small hotel owned by a 
Senegalese named Aziz.  They planted two brand new flags supported 
by tree branches.  The Deputy Prefect of Cabrousse told PolCouns 
that Bissau Guineans entered about one kilometer into Senegalese 
territory to the lighthouse on Cape Roxo to look for border marker 
184, which they alleged the Senegalese had destroyed on purpose. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) A veteran NCO who mans the Senegalese military post of 
Boudiediete told PolCouns that he walked with the Bissau Guinean 
soldiers and made sure they did not go into the village of Cabrousse 
as he felt that some of them were clearly on a punitive mission and 
wanted the villagers to pay for the vandalism against Mandiga's 
project.  The NCO regretted that the Senegalese authorities did not 
act in time to resolve this dispute, which has actually been brewing 
since 2008.  He further commented that intelligence provided to him 
by his informers indicated that Guinea-Bissau had assembled about 
three thousand troops with heavy equipment along the border (near 
Suzana and Valera).  On November 4, PolCouns crossed into 
Guinea-Bissau, where the Deputy Prefect of Sao Domingo confirmed the 
presence of troops (scaled down) in the Valera area.  The same day, 
Zamora Induta, the Chief of Staff of Guinea-Bissau's armed forces 
came to inspect the troops.  (Comment: For Induta, this border 
crisis was a perfect opportunity to stamp some measure of authority 
over the country's fractious military by using the issue of 
sovereignty as a rallying point.   End comment.) 
 
¶7. (SBU) COMMENT: The security situation in the Casamance has 
deteriorated as evidence by a noticeable increase in military 
personnel.  So far, the GOS has managed to restrain its armed 
forces, but if the border dispute with Guinea-Bissau is not proQly 
resolved, it could provide the MFDC with new allies in the Bissau 
Guinean army and shatter the fragile and relative peace in the 
Casamance.  The situation has degraded sufficiently that several 
members of the donors group (i.e. Austria, Belgium, Canada, the 
European Commission, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UNDP, the United 
Kingdom, and the United States) have agreed to send a letter to the 
Prime Minister expressing concern about the rise in violence and the 
potential impact on development and humanitarian projects in the 
region.  End Comment. 
Bernicat