P 251343Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4256
INFO AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
CIA WASHDC
DIA WASHINGTON DC
HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000742 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN ASEC GV
UNCLASSIFIED 
SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES DISCUSS STRATEGY FOR OUSTING CNDD 
 
¶1. On November 24, DCM hosted a meeting with several members of the Forces Vives whose political organizations are currently involved in discussions in Ouagadougou. Key points discussed included: 
 
-- The current condition of the Forces Vives as a unified group. 
-- Plans for if the CNDD refuses to leave power peacefully. 
-- Meetings with the UN Commission of Inquiry 
-- The possibility of further demonstrations. 
 
Attendees included Mohamed Diane of the RPG party, Amadou Oury Bah of the UFDG, Alpha Ousmane Diallo of the PUP, Boubacar Barry of the UFR, Bory Diallo, representing civil society, Georges Ghandi Tounkara of FUDEC, and Aboubacar Sylla, the chief communication officer of the Forces Vives. 
 
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UNIFIED FRONT 
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¶2. Speaking for the group, Oury Bah expressed his satisfaction with the US and international position in regard to the need for CNDD President Moussa Dadis Camara to step down from power. Bah reinforced the pledge of the Forces 
Vives to work in unison and to sacrifice personal interests for the good of the whole. He said that since September 28, the group has been working together on a daily basis, and they have learned how to cooperate effectively. When asked about rumors of divisions within the ranks, Bah stressed that each dissenting opinion voiced to the press marginalizes the popular support of the people of Guinea, and due to this, the Forces Vives were steadfast on acting as a unified body. Bah stated that the Forces Vives are opposing a junta that is determined to hold onto power for the long-term, and that they must be equally determined to succeed. 
 
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IF DADIS WON'T PLAY BALL 
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¶3. The group acknowledged the likelihood that Dadis will not step down peacefully. In such a case, they would rely on the presence of international sanctions, and pressure from both abroad and within Guinea to force a change. Mohamed Diane noted the training of ethnic militias and arms shipments as a cause for concern and a justification for an international protection force to save lives and install democracy. 
 
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UN COMMISSION INQUIRIES 
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¶4. The UN Commission of Inquiry asked for victims of September 28 to meet at individual political party headquarters to give their account of the violence. Initially expecting small numbers due to fear of reprisals, Boubacar Barry, Ousmane Diallo, and others said they were shocked by the large turnout. They stated that traditionally, a request to testify against the government publicly would not have been answered. Instead, the victims took the responsibility upon themselves to stand up and denounce the actions of the junta to the international community. Barry listed the number of witnesses at over one hundred at his headquarters alone. They testified throughout the day. 
 
¶5. Ghandi Tounkara described a ten-day visit he made to Dakar to visit 11 female victims of rape from September 28. Of the 11 victims, four were pregnant. He said that they were all emotionally devastated, with at least two victims suffering severe mental breakdowns. At one point, the hotel where the victims were staying held a reception for the women, which members of the Senegalese military attended. At the sight of their red berets, the women reportedly ran screaming from the premises. 
 
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TOWARDS CIVIL UNREST? 
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¶6. DCM asked about the possibility of further demonstrations against the CNDD. The Forces Vives indicated that they are discouraging demonstrations until the UN Commission of Inquiry's report is completed, scheduled for December 15 or 16. Their hope is that a strong indictment of Dadis and the CNDD by the Commission would provide worldwide support and possibly legal justification for an international intervention force. 
 
¶7. While the Forces Vives have not explicitly called for a strike, Bory Diallo said that they have encouraged passive civil disobedience. Some merchants in Conakry's main market refused to pay local taxes, claiming the money will be uses against them as salaries for soldiers. Future plans for a general strike are being worked out among members, but no tripwire exists for their implementation. 
 
¶8. COMMENT. At present time, the Forces Vives are adopting a two-pronged strategy to combat the CNDD, involving pressure from the international community on one end, and the threat of internal strife on the other. The release of the UN Inquiry Commission report is eagerly anticipated, with the belief that it will ask for an international intervention force to protect the population against Guinea's undisciplined armed forces. In the meantime, civil disobedience and the specter of future strikes remain the two salient instruments that the Forces Vives control. All agreed that non-violence alone is unlikely to bring about the removal of the CNDD. END COMMENT. 
 
Moller