VZCZCXRO2505
PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHRY #0736 3271623
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231623Z NOV 09 ZDS CTG IGM 6812
FM AMEMBASSY CONAKRY
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4250
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

UNCLAS CONAKRY 000736 
 
SENSITIVE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
C O R R E C T E D  COPY - SENSITIVE CAPTION/PARA MARKINGS ADDEED 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EFIN ASEC GV
SUBJECT: FORCES VIVES REJECT PROPOSAL FOR TRANSITIONAL GOV'T 
 
REF: A. OUAGADOUGOU 01048 
     ¶B. CONAKRY 0718 
 
¶1. (U) SUMMARY.  Guineans have recieved reports of the talks in 
Ouagadougou between Burkinabe President and mediator Blaise 
Compaore, the Forces Vives, and the CNDD with a mixture of 
concern, outrage, and resignation.  After Compaore delivered 
his "non-paper" on November 20 outlining a proposed 
transitional government for Guinea (reftel A), it became 
apparent to opposition parties that these talks have reached 
an impasse.  The CNDD immediately accepted the "proposal", 
while the Forces Vives quickly drafted a communique 
condemning both the propsal and Compaore's mediation efforts. 
 The CNDD have returned to Guinea, where they are reveling in 
an easily-won political victory.  Meanwhile, the Forces Vives 
remain in Ougadougou, placing small hope in their plans to 
deliver an effective counter-proposal.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) The Forces Vives were shocked when Compaore released his 
plans for a transitional government that was largely 
perceived as tilted in favor of the CNDD's position. 
Compaore's plans entail the creation of a 150 member Council 
of National Transition (CNT), and a 30 member Government of 
National Unity (GNU).  The CNT would be chaired by the CNDD, 
with delegates appointed by the CNDD, the Forces Vives, and 
elements of civil society (trade unions, local magistrates, 
etc.).  The GNU would be comprised of 30 members, with 10 
each between the CNDD, Forces Vives, and civil society.  A 
Prime Minister, appointed by the Forces Vives and vetted by 
the CNDD, would head the GNU.  Any member of the GNU 
interested in running in the October elections would have to 
step down four months beforehand. 
 
¶3. (U) The main point of contention for the Forces Vives is the 
large role the CNDD would play in such a government. 
Compaore's points failed to rule out CNDD President Moussa 
Dadis Camara from having a role in government, as he would 
surely be appointed head of the CNU by his own supporters. 
In a November 20 communique released by the Forces Vives, 
Compaore is accused of ignoring the recommendations of the 
international community in regard to the non-candidacy of 
CNDD members, chiefly Dadis.  The Forces Vives further accuse 
Compaore of not taking the will of the Guinean people into 
consideration.  The communique concludes that the Forces 
Vives will consult with their members to decide if Compaore 
should be replaced as mediator. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Reaction in Guinea to the proposal varies.  Most 
opposition party members agree that the restrictions against 
the CNDD are not adequate, but differ on how to proceed. 
Mohamed Sidibe, vice-president of the NGR party (a minor 
party affiliated with the Forces Vives), equates Compaore's 
decision to allow Dadis to remain as "political piracy." 
Sidibe stresses that the large majority of Guineans are 
opposed to any mention of Dadis' candidacy in upcoming 
elections.  Maimouna Sow, of the UFD, expressed her 
frustration with Compaore, saying that he is taking sides 
with Dadis.  She accuses Compaore of ignoring the suffering 
of the victims of September 28 in favor of his own financial 
interests (reftel B). 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Others, like Mamadou Oury Diallo of the PDU party 
(another minor party within the Forces Vives), believe the 
proposal is potentially advantageous.  In Diallo's opinion, 
if the Forces Vives had a strong Prime Minister, they would 
be able to diminish the influence of Dadis and the CNDD 
heading into elections.  Diallo points out the four month 
period between mandatory resignation and elections as a time 
when Dadis and the CNDD will lose the capacity to influence 
or rig the elections.  Others, like Dansa Kourouma of the 
NFD, believe getting Dadis out of power peacefully should be 
the main focus. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) COMMENT.  Frustration with Compaore is the common 
theme among opposition parties in Guinea.  While his 
"non-paper" was reportedly meant only to initiate discussion 
between the CNDD and Forces Vives, it instead appears to have 
driven a wedge between the two sides.  The CNDD quickly left 
the meeting, believing victory was theirs.  Upon their 
return, jubilation was reported at the main military base in 
Conakry.  The Forces Vives, despite having both domestic and 
international support, could only play witness as their chief 
demand - that Dadis leave power - went unanswered.  A third 
round of meetings has not been scheduled, and the prognosis 
is dim for any binding resolution to result.  This perceived 
"pro-CNDD" stance will certainly further fuel rumors in 
Conkary of financial linkage between junta leader Dadis 
Camara and Compaore.  END COMMENT. 
Moller