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R 171650Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUJUMBURA
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1843
INFO AMEMBASSY DAR ES SALAAM 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
AMEMBASSY KIGALI 
AMEMBASSY KINSHASA

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUJUMBURA 000627 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM BY
SUBJECT: FRODEBU YOUTH ARE TALKING TOUGH - HOW FAR WILL 
THEY TAKE IT? 
 
REF: A. BUJUMBURA 439 
     ¶B. BUJUMBURA 488 
 
Classified By: CDA Anthony Kleiber for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Patrick Nkurunziza, president of the FRODEBU 
party's youth wing, stated that the group's primary objective 
is to "protect the party" by acting as a "deterrent" against 
the intimidation efforts of the ruling party's youth, the 
Imbonerakure (ref A).  To fulfill these goals, FRODEBU's 
Central des Jeunes Democratiques (CJD - Gathering of Young 
Democrats) is organizing rallies called "sports days," a 
strategy intentionally copied directly from CNDD-FDD's 
Imbonerakure methods.  Unlike CNDD-FDD's youth, however, the 
CJD is also making strong public statements promising to go 
head-to-head with the Imbonerakure until the CNDD-FDD youth 
back off of their rumored thug-like ways.  Since the 
Imbonerakure are said to be forming armed militias in some 
communes, there is a fear that FRODEBU's youth will pursue an 
equivalent response.  Most political observers, however, 
believe the CJD rhetoric is empty of real threat; they lack 
the resources and probably the will to pursue an armed 
response.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C) In Patrick Nkurunziza's November 17 meeting with 
PolOff, he delivered a blunt, clear message on the CJD's 
commitment to protecting the FRODEBU party and following 
FRODEBU marching orders.  To questions about the 
organization's agenda, election preparations, or purpose, he 
consistently and concisely responded that it depends on the 
party leadership's instructions.  "If the party says march, 
we march."  He defined the youth wing as a "response" to 
CNDD-FDD's Imbonerakure: "we are afraid of the Imbonerakure 
and exist for that reason."  When pressed, he described CJD's 
members: 18 - 35 years old, single or married, male or 
female.  Though he said CJD's total membership is unknown, 
Patrick expressed confidence that the youth wing is 
represented in every commune of all of Burundi's 17 provinces. 
 
¶3. (C) For months, Imbonerakure groups have organized an 
estimated 300 or more people to jog en masse through cities 
and communes chanting slogans.  According to some reports, 
the cadences are quite hostile, including serious threats to 
those who support opposition parties.  CJD claims its "sports 
days" are in response to these Imbonerakure events.  Patrick 
said that CJD is drawing an estimated 250 youth at each 
gathering and promised to continue organizing these 
counter-demonstrations "of force" until the Imbonerakure stop 
their activities.  (Note: It is common throughout Burundi for 
people to go on long jogs or walks in very large groups on 
Saturday and Sunday mornings.  The jogging groups with 
cadences and shouting are not always political.  Rather the 
tradition is now being used for political posturing and 
propaganda.  End note.) 
 
¶4. (C) Patrick Nkurunziza informed PolOff that he and the 
FRODEBU party are concerned that violence is coming, but not 
from any other youth groups - only the Imbonerakure.  Patrick 
elaborated that if "the government" does not rein in the 
Imbonerakure, there will certainly be violence.  He 
emphasized, however, that CJD is different than CNDD-FDD's 
youth; it will make a show through sports but will not resort 
to violence.  More to the point, he stated that FRODEBU is 
against violence.  When asked to explain that statement 
against FRODEBU's presidential candidate Domitien Ndayizeye 
or FRODEBU vice-president Frederic Banvuginyunvira's comments 
to the press that FRODEBU will continue down this path as 
long as the ruling CNDD-FDD party does, Patrick replied that 
he and the CJD will obey the party.  He concluded with a 
request that the USG press the GoB to stop the Imbonerakure. 
 
¶5. (C) COMMENT: There are real concerns among the 
international community and political parties that these 
youth groups will push at each other, slowly escalating the 
rhetoric, then the confrontations, until real violence breaks 
out. While other parties also have youth wings, it is 
FRODEBU's CJD that is the most verbally antagonistic and that 
is now physically challenging the Imbonerakure with its own 
large, aggressive gatherings.  Despite this, and despite 
Patrick Nkurunziza's assertive statements, political 
observers believe that FRODEBU does not have the resources or 
the will to pursue this course all the way to a violent 
confrontation -- that this is a game of chicken that FRODEBU 
has undertaken to try to halt the Imbonerakure's aggression. 
Unfortunately, these political observers are not saying the 
same of CNDD-FDD.  Many fear that the Imbonerakure will take 
up small arms in support of CNDD-FDD before this election 
season is over.  END COMMENT. 
 
 
Kleiber