VZCZCXRO7770
RR RUEHIK
DE RUEHBS #1526/01 3171729
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 131729Z NOV 09 ZDK
FM AMEMBASSY BRUSSELS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 9685
RUEAUSA/HHS WASHDC
RUEHPH/CDC ATLANTA GA
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BRUSSELS 001526 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KFLU AEMR ASEC AMED CASC KFLO TBIO KSAF KPAO PREL
PINR, AMGT, TF, BE 
SUBJECT:  BELGIUM:  H1N1 REPORT: NUMBER OF ESTIMATED CASES FALLS 
SIGNIFICANTLY; TOTAL DEATHS NOW ELEVEN 
 
REF: BRUSSELS 1509 
 
BRUSSELS 00001526  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1. On November 12, the Government of Belgium's Interministerial 
Influenza Commission (IIC) announced a significant drop in estimated 
H1N1 cases, with 29,744 estimated cases from November 2 to 8 (week 
45), compared to 47,448 for the week of October 26 to November 1 
(week 44).  Three deaths were reported in week 45, bringing to 11 
the total of H1N1-related fatalities in Belgium since the outbreak 
began in April 2009.  Authorities conjectured that the decline in 
cases may have been due to school vacation and foreign travel, but 
were reluctant to draw conclusions from the drop in cases, citing 
the need for more data.  The fall in cases came one week after 
Belgium saw a slowing of the rate of increase in estimated H1N1 
cases in week 44, following six consecutive weeks where the rates of 
incidence approximately doubled, albeit from a small base (see 
paragraph 7 for cumulative weekly figures).  The country's 
vaccination program for health care and education workers and 
members of risk-groups continues, with approximately 1.5 million 
doses of Pandemrix, the GOB's sole choice of vaccine, so far having 
been made available via general practitioners.  Health authorities 
have not yet announced when additional vaccines may become available 
to the larger population.  End summary. 
Week of November 2 to November 8 (week 45) 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  Along with the drop in estimated H1N1 cases, there were fewer 
cases of patients with flu-related symptoms making doctor visits 
reported during the week.  The IIC press release with Belgium's 
latest figures refrained from drawing conclusions from the fall off 
in cases, saying it was too early to comment and that it would be 
necessary to monitor cases over time.  The country remains in phase 
one of an epidemic, according to the Belgian Scientific Institute 
Public Health (BSIPH), with still just a small portion of the public 
believed to have been exposed to the virus (152,748 estimated 
positive cases according to BSIPH figures, from a total estimated 
population of 10.4 million).  The IIC reported there were three 
additional H1-N1 related fatalities during week 45, but offered no 
further details; the total number of deaths linked to H1N1 is now 
¶11.  The IIC indicated that the country's mortality rate has not 
been significantly affected by the H1N1 virus. 
 
Week of October 26 to November 1 (week 44) 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  Although the 44,448 estimated positive cases in week 44 
represented an absolute increase over the previous week's 39,367 
cases, it marked the first time in six weeks that the number of 
estimated cases had not doubled.  The IIC announced one additional 
H1N1-related death sometime during week 44, but gave no further 
details. 
 
Week of October 19 to October 25 (week 43) 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶4.  Besides the 39,367 cases estimated that week, the IIC announced 
two deaths, of a 43-year old woman and a 75-year old man.  Both had 
been hospitalized with serious respiratory problems.  No further 
details were given. 
 
 
IIC ANNOUNCES H1N1 VACCINE PANDEMRIX SAFE FOR PREGNANT WOMEN 
          ------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  On November 3, the Interministerial Influenza Commission 
announced in a press release that the Influenza Scientific Committee 
and representatives of Belgian gynaecologists had agreed that the 
Pandemrix H1N1 vaccine purchased by the GOB was safe for use by 
women in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy, and that 
women in that key group should receive the vaccination on a priority 
basis.  Before the announcement some press coverage had been raised 
from some quarters about the suitability of the vaccine (which 
contains adjuvants) for pregnant women.  Pregnant women and women 
undergoing medically-assisted procreation programs, medical 
professionals, those over six months with at-risk medical 
conditions, and parents with children under six months are currently 
able to receive the vaccine free of charge via local general 
practitioners (reftel). 
 
EMBASSY H1N1 WORKING GROUP 
-------------------------- 
 
¶6.  The Embassy H1N1 Working Group (comprised of representatives 
from the Front Office, Health Unit, Management, Consular, CLO, RSO, 
PD and POLECON sections) reviewed Embassy preparedness in light of 
Belgium's H1N1 situation on October 28 and September 29.  The 
working group will continue to meet at regularly scheduled times 
 
BRUSSELS 00001526  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
(the next meeting is set for November 19) and on an exceptional 
basis if the situation warrants. 
 
 
¶7. BELGIAN H1N1 CASES (ESTIMATED UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED*) 
         --------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
WEEK DATE     NUMBER CASES    CUMULATIVE 
          NUMBER CASES 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
45  NOV 2-NOV 8  29,744  152,748 
44 OCT 26-NOV 1  47,448  123,004 
43 OCT 19-25   39,367   75,556 
42 OCT 12-18   16,255   36,189 
41 OCT 5-11    7,477   19,934 
40 SEP 28-OCT 4   3,997   12,457 
39 SEP 21-27    1,753    8,460 
38 SEP 14-20       911    6,707 
37 SEP  7-13        462    5,796 
36 AUG 31-SEP 6       402    5,334 
35 AUG 24-30          539    4,932 
34 AUG 17-23      966    4,393 
33 AUG 10-16      995    3,427 
32 AUG 3-9      687    2,432 
31 JUL 27-AUG 2         851    1,745 
30 JUL 20-26      507      894 
29 JUL 13-19       387      387 
 
      APR 27-JUL12         126* 
 
(source: Belgian Scientific Institute Public Health, Brussels) 
 
*total of individuals testing positive during that period 
 
(Note:  Belgium ceased individual testing for H1N1 in mid-July 2009, 
and since then has used extrapolations from a system relying on data 
based on cases of patients who visit the approximately 180 doctors 
who make up the so-called national H1N1 network.) 
 
GUTMAN