VZCZCXRO7107
PP RUEHBZ RUEHGI
DE RUEHGI #0250/01 3171116
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 131116Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY BANGUI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1084
INFO RUEHBZ/AMEMBASSY BRAZZAVILLE 0235
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHKH/AMEMBASSY KHARTOUM 0338
RUEHKI/AMEMBASSY KINSHASA 0351
RUEHLC/AMEMBASSY LIBREVILLE 0250
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 0189
RUEHNR/AMEMBASSY NAIROBI 0179
RUEHNJ/AMEMBASSY NDJAMENA 0539
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS 0523
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 0171
RUEHYD/AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE 0512
RUEHGI/AMEMBASSY BANGUI 1369

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGUI 000250 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/C 
USUN FOR DMUERS 
PARIS FOR RKANEDA 
LONDON FOR PLORD 
NAIROBI  FOR AKARAS 
AFRICOM FOR JKUGEL 
INR FOR CNEARY 
DRL FOR SCRAMPTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM PINR CT
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT RETURNS TO THE CAR SPARKING WIDE MEDIA 
ATTENTION BUT DOES NOT SHIFT THE POLITICAL SPECTRUM 
 
REF: A)  BANGUI 68,  B)  BANGUI 209 AND PREVIOUS 
 
¶1. (SBU) SUMMARY: On October 30, 2009, former Central African 
(CAR) President Ange Felix Patasse returned to the country after 
an eight year exile in Togo. It is still unclear how his return 
affects the elections of 2010, for which he has affirmed he will 
run (Ref A), but it has clearly shaken his former party and 
opened old wounds from his time as President. Post suspects that 
President Francois Bozize, who has tacitly encouraged the 
return, sees the ``National Beard'' as a wedge in the already 
fractured opposition. And while Patasse retains some support, 
especially among his ethnic kinsmen in the populous and 
rebellious Northwest, his anarchic reign as president stands in 
marked contrast to the relative calm that Bozize has brought to 
Bangui and its environs.  As a result, Post belives that 
Patasse's return will contribute to solidifying Bozize's 
position prior to the elections and, despite the former 
president's bravado, will not significantly alter the national 
political picture of the CAR. END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (SBU) Patasse's return, his second since a 2003 coup d'etat 
forced him from office, garnered much media attention and sparks 
anew the controversy that surrounds his presidency of the CAR. 
To his supporters, he remains a highly charismatic leader who 
harkens back to the days of Emperor Bokassa - for whom he was 
Prime Minister - and for his symbolic status as the first 
Central African President to be democratically elected. To his 
detractors, he is a war criminal who invited Libyan soldiers and 
then Congolese mercenaries to the country, sparking off a period 
of chaos, murder, and rape in Bangui and the interior as he 
attempted to hold on to power during various mutinies and coups. 
Many think he should follow Jean Pierre Bemba before the 
International Criminal Court. 
 
¶3. (SBU) Patasse's homecoming from his Togolese exile is seen by 
many as Bozize's attempt to destabilize the opposition Movement 
for the Liberation of Central African People (MLPC) before the 
elections. The most well established and organized opposition 
party, the MLCP and its candidate, Martin Ziguele (Ref B), stand 
as the most credible threat to Bozize's reelection bid. Ziguele, 
who was Patasse's  Prime Minister, privately lobbied Patasse not 
to return and has publically condemned his attempt to reclaim 
leadership of the party. Though the MLCP's members have stayed 
loyal, with the exception of a few defections from around 
Patasse's home town of Paoua, Ziguele is clearly feeling some 
pressure. According to the local press, the MLCP recently sent a 
delegation to Patasse seeking a compromise. To date, there is no 
evidence that one has been reached. In the end, both men have 
very healthy egos and a significant amount of mutual bad blood 
over Ziguele's denunciations of the former President during the 
2005 elections and proceeding years. It therefore seems unlikely 
that a reconciliation will be reached and Patasse will most 
probably run as an independent candidate. 
 
¶4. (SBU) Logically, the arrival of Patasse is a boon for Bozize: 
the distraction it brings to the MLCP is significant and the 
back and forth between Ziguele and Patasse reaffirms to the 
public that Ziguele is intimately linked to the upheavals of the 
former president's rule. But Patasse could pose problems for 
President Bozize as well, due to his popularity in the northwest 
and his legendary ability to incite crowds through bursts of 
populist rhetoric. Thus, there are apparently two divergent 
camps on how to deal with Patasse among Bozize's closest 
advisors: 
 
--  Those who believe that Patasse cannot be trusted and that 
everything should be done to destabilize him. 
 
-- Those who see him as a relative - Patasse and Bozize are 
related by marriage - who should be nurtured as a thorn in the 
side Ziguele. 
 
BANGUI 00000250  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
The face to face meeting between Patasse and Bozize on November 
9 suggests the later group is winning out. The meeting was 
apparently cordial and striking in that Patasse was so 
deferential to Bozize. 
 
¶5. (SBU) COMMENT: Public opinion is very difficult to gauge in 
the CAR as reliable polling is nonexistent, but discussions by 
officers at Post with people across a broad spectrum of Central 
African society all come to the same basic conclusion that 
Patasse is not the same force he was previously and that his 
time has passed. The French Ambassador reminded the Ambassador 
in a recent conversation that whatever one might begrudge 
Bozize, his eight years in power have brought relative stability 
to a city - Bangui makes up nearly a quarter of the country's 
population - shaken by Patasse's excesses and unhinged attempts 
to maintain power. 
 
¶6. (SBU) It is entirely possible that Patasse knows he cannot 
beat Ziguele and Bozize, but hopes his run for the presidency 
will give him enough credibility that he can reclaim the fortune 
he lost during the coup of 2003 or demand a ministerial position 
from whomever is in the best position for the second round of 
the elections. Regardless of whether his run is for political 
position, financial gain,  or  simple pride, Patasse should not 
be viewed as Bozize's principal challenger and Bozize remains 
the most likely victor in the upcoming elections. END COMMENT. 
COOK