VZCZCXYZ0012
RR RUEHWEB

DE RUEHTH #2064/01 3241613
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 201611Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ATHENS
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1116
INFO RUEHTH/AMEMBASSY ATHENS

UNCLAS ATHENS 002064 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECON PHSA KPIR CH GR
SUBJECT: Greek Shippers Drowning in the Wake of Economic Pressures 
 
REF: ATHENS 1611; ATHENS 1581 
 
¶1.  (SBU) SUMMARY.  A seafaring nation for millennia, the 
resilience of the Greek shipping industry is being tested seriously 
for the first time since it rose to modern prominence in the 1960s. 
As the global economic crisis continues, and the demographics of 
international trade shift, the Greek shipping industry is straining 
to maintain its global status.  EconOffs attended the 3rd annual 
Greek Shipping Summit on November 3, and the 9th annual Navigator 
conference on November 4, where it was clear that Greek shippers 
are feeling increasing pressure on multiple fronts, including: 
increased piracy; new environmental, safety, and labor regulations; 
China's expanding role in the industry; and recent changes in 
domestic political portfolios.  How the Greek shipping industry 
addresses these challenges will impact the transport of U.S. 
exports-25 percent of which are carried by Greek-owned ships.  END 
SUMMARY. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Greece controls the world's largest merchant fleet in 
terms of dead weight tons (DWT), with 4960 vessels-33 percent of 
which are Greek-flagged.  (Note: Greek-flagged vessels make up 
approximately 6 percent of the world total.  End Note.)  The 
industry employs 250,000 individuals (though few Greeks), and 
includes 25,000 seafarers and 1200 shipping companies.  Second only 
to tourism, shipping contributed 18 billion Euro to the Greek 
economy in 2008, and shipping receipts account for approximately 
6-8 percent of Greece's GDP.  As a result of the recent global 
economic crisis, Greece's shipping income fell 31.3 percent in the 
first eight months of 2009, and shippers are bracing for the 
situation to get worse before it gets better. 
 
 
 
------------------------------ 
 
Piracy's Economic Toll 
 
------------------------------ 
 
 
 
¶3.  (SBU) Stelios Drakakis, Head of the Marine Insurance Division 
of ISB Hellas, reported that piracy has cost the global shipping 
industry an estimated 16 billion USD.  He noted that there have 
been 309 attacks (at least 10 of which were against Greek-owned 
ships) by pirates in the first nine months of 2009-more than all of 
¶2008.  With attacks on the rise and average ransom payments at 1 
million USD, the industry is struggling to combat this financial 
drain on both shipping companies and government coffers alike. 
Egypt's Suez Canal revenues, for instance, are projected to fall 
from 5 billion USD in 2008 to 3.1 billion USD in 2010. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Most Greek shippers support current International 
Maritime Organization (IMO) piracy guidelines, but many continue to 
debate best practices for mitigating the threat of piracy now and 
in the future.  Some in the industry are lobbying for the Gulf of 
Aden to be declared a "Naval War Zone" and for international forces 
in the Gulf to conduct operations against the pirates.  This would 
affect any insurance clauses with "war exclusions."  Currently, 
most general maritime insurance policies cover piracy, but 
individual underwriters often remove it, thereby creating the need 
for supplemental war risk insurance and increasing the cost to 
transport goods. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Greek shippers have been open with us about the 
possibility of Greece signing the New York Declaration on best 
practices for merchant vessel self protection, but the GoG is 
resisting (see reftel A).  Greece is, however, an active 
participant in the Contact Group. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
-------- 
 
Companies Struggling with Strength of Shipyard Capacity 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
-------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) As demand for drybulk and other cargo declines alongside 
global GDP, the industry is facing an oversupply of shipyard 
capacity.  With the recent decline in available credit, and most 
shipping companies over-leveraged, many are seeking to cancel or 
renegotiate the price of previously ordered ships.  According to 
Philip Embiricos, former president of the Baltic and International 
Maritime Council (BIMCO), more than 50 percent of deliveries 
scheduled for 2010 and later are still without secured financing. 
Michael Bodouroglou, CEO of Paragon Shipping, stressed that 77 
percent of the world order book would need to be cancelled to bring 
supply and demand to the ideal equilibrium (with a 10 percent 
difference).  Shippers are concerned that even without financing, 
shipyards will continue to fill all outstanding orders to maintain 
shipyard employment.  Though politicians do not agree, Embiricos 
argued that industry representatives should pressure governments to 
cut shipyard capacity. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------- 
 
The Struggle to Accommodate New Regulations 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------------- 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) Greek ship owners are hoping that the UN Climate Change 
Conference does not yield what they perceive to be extreme 
restrictions on their emissions.  International shipping currently 
accounts for 2.7 percent of global CO2 emissions, and without a 
change in practice, shipping CO2 emissions will reach 7,000 million 
tons per year in coming years (38 percent of the global CO2 cap 
according to Copenhagen plans).  Implementing additional 
restrictions on this industry, however, will be difficult, as ship 
owners already consider themselves held to unfairly high emissions 
standards, with some arguing that EU environmental regulations and 
emissions standards should either be abolished or financially 
subsidized by the government.  For the last several years, Greek 
shippers have looked to the United States as an ally against 
excessive EU environmental positions in the IMO.  Fearing a shift 
in U.S. support, several recently traveled to Washington to take 
the pulse of congressional staff. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Other new regulations affecting the industry include new 
tugboat safety regulations proposed by the United States for U.S. 
harbors, which will subject tugboats (previously uninspected) to 
formal safety inspection by the U.S. Coast Guard.  The regulations 
are expected to be in place by January 2010, but will be open for 
industry comment beforehand. 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) The Maritime Labor Convention (MLC) of 2006 is expected 
to be in place by December 2011, after most European countries 
ratify it in 2010.  Vessels over 500GT engaged in international 
shipping will be required to carry a Maritime Labor Certificate, 
which attests to the working and living conditions of the vessel 
and compliance with flag state laws.  All flag states will have to 
review current national legislation to ensure MLC compliance. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
------ 
 
China's Position in the Changing Shipping Demographic 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---------------------- 
------ 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) China's role in the shipping industry-direct and 
indirect-mirrors its rising position in the global economy.   As 
Chinese domestic construction expands as a result of its rapidly 
growing and competitive economy, its demand for iron ore imports 
and related shipping services also is increasing.  Shifting labor 
demographics mean that Chinese demand for imported energy and 
construction materials will increasingly be met by ships manned by 
Chinese seafarers.  Greek fleets have used primarily Filipino, 
Chinese, Indian, and Ukrainian seafarers, but the pool of available 
seafarers is ageing, with a general shift away from the profession 
everywhere except China.  Though the number of Filipino workers in 
the global market is steadily increasing (many going to the Middle 
East), the number of Filipino seafarers is also declining.  As a 
result, China is likely to displace the Philippines as the next 
 
largest supplier of seafarers.  Greece has not been successful in 
attracting its own youth into the merchant marine and is 
contemplating how to make the sector more attractive to Greek 
graduates and recent immigrants to Greece who suffer from high 
unemployment. 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) Conference participants were also seized with China's 
increasing role in shipbuilding.  China recently surpassed South 
Korea as the world's largest shipbuilder, with 34.7 percent of the 
market.  China has a comparative advantage as a result of its cheap 
labor and availability of land to expand shipyards, and it has 
gained additional market share by offering generous loan terms to 
foreign buyers and domestic shipbuilders.  The Chinese also have 
started to purchase some of the shipyard overstock that Greek and 
other western European ship owners cannot absorb given the current 
lower cargo demand.  These ships are purchased cheaply and 
immediately incorporated into the Chinese shipping fleet, according 
to Denis Petropolis of Braemer Seascope. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU) On shore, Beijing-based China Ocean Shipping Company 
(COSCO) has secured a 35-year concession to manage one of two 
existing terminals and to rebuild a third terminal at Piraeus, 
Greece's largest port and the top container port in the eastern 
Mediterranean.  This controversial 4.3 billion Euro deal between 
COSCO and the Piraeus Port Authority (OLP), which will expand 
Greece's role in Mediterranean shipping and transport, sparked a 
series of recent strikes by Greek dockworkers that cost businesses 
and the Greek government tens of millions of Euro in lost revenue 
(see reftel B).  Despite the labor tensions, China is not backing 
away from the terms of the deal, and the GoG has said it will 
enforce its terms. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------------- 
 
Shipping Takes a Hit in the Reshuffle of Ministries 
 
--------------------------------------------- --------------------- 
 
 
 
¶13.  (SBU) Following Greece's October 2009 elections, and the 
installation of a PASOK government, the Ministry of Mercantile 
Marine, Aegean Sea and Island Policy was split up, with commercial 
shipping issues now falling under the Ministry of Economy, 
Competitiveness, and Shipping.  Industry representatives are 
clearly annoyed at the change, and sense that their issues might 
get less attention than they have been accustomed to.  One of the 
conference speakers even argued that the industry should "revolt" 
against the dismantling of the Ministry of Mercantile Marine.  That 
Minister Louka Katseli cancelled her keynote address to the 
Navigator conference at the last minute did not help, and was noted 
by one of the speakers. 
 
 
 
 
 
¶14.  (SBU) Comment:  Greece's shipping industry is facing a diverse 
set of new challenges at a time when the global economic crisis is 
already dampening shipping demand.  Greek shippers are confident 
that they will weather this storm, but their role as the industry 
giant could erode in the long-term as China and other new actors 
offer competitive alternatives and expand their presence in the 
sector.  With 25 percent of U.S. exports being moved by Greek-owned 
ships, how Greek shippers address these challenges, and whether 
they do so successfully, will affect the nature of how U.S. goods 
are moved to international markets. 
Speckhard