P 161348Z NOV 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5530
INFO ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABIDJAN 000687 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/16/2019 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM SOCI IV
SUBJECT: YOUTH VIOLENCE FEARED DURING ELECTIONS 
 
REF: ABIDJAN 675 
 
Classified By: CLASSIFIED BY POLECON COUNSELOR MARY TOWNSWICK 
FOR REASONS 1.4 (b) AND (d). 
 
¶1.  (SBU)  Summary:  International NGOs working on election 
issues, as well as Ivoirian civil society institutions are 
concerned about the potential for violence in the run up to 
elections, particularly among impoverished and unemployed 
youth, who have attached their economic hopes to their 
respective candidates.  They recommend sensitization programs 
on peaceful elections for both party leadership and their 
young followers.  With elections officially postponed from 
November 29, we believe a USG statement calling for elections 
as soon as possible and urging leaders to publicly renounce 
the use of violence to protect the credibility of the process 
could be helpful.  End Summary 
 
¶2. (SBU) In spite of the official announcement of a delay in 
the presidential elections, progress continues to be made, 
with the provisional electoral list now on the internet and 
expected to be posted at all polling places during the week 
of November 16. A four-week contestation period (contentieux) 
will commence once the list has been posted nationwide. 
International NGO's, as well as members of political parties 
and civil society are concerned about the possibility of 
violence, particularly by young people, as the electoral 
process moves into higher gear.  At a roundtable sponsored by 
the Embassy on November 10, representatives of 12 Ivoirian 
human rights organizations expressed concern about the youth 
wings of all political parties.  With youth unemployment 
estimated at over 60 percent, many see little opportunity for 
economic advancement except through political patronage from 
"their" candidate who will, of course, win the election. 
In addition, it is easy to attract large groups into the 
streets by paying them fairly small sums.  Disturbingly, one 
NGO rep noted that young people admire wealthy officials, 
despite them being extremely corrupt.  With little confidence 
in governmental institutions, many youth seem to believe that 
"seule la lutte paie (only struggle pays)." 
 
¶3.  (C)  All major political leaders assure their followers 
that their party will win. (For example, in Divo and 
Yamoussoukro, local officials of all three parties 
steadfastly maintained to emboffs that their candidate would 
carry the region by a large margin.)  While this can be 
dismissed as part of the campaign process, one result could 
well be that supporters of the losing candidates will be 
taken by surprise and believe that the outcome was unfair. 
The NDI country representative told us he was concerned by 
the high level of hate-filled rhetoric from all parties, in 
particular from the PDCI, and planned to arrange a round 
table with the youth leaders to discuss ways to have a 
peaceful election.  Another NGO involved in elections told us 
that the RDR has admitted that its youth wing will be very 
difficult to control.  In a November 12 meeting, Ambassador 
asked PDCI Secretary General DjeDje Mady to discourage party 
members from using violence.  His response was that that if 
the Young Patriots take to the streets, the PDCI youth wing 
will respond in kind. 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  There are several sensitive stages in the 
electoral process.  The time allotted for contesting names on 
the list must be handled well, according to one NGO rep, as 
the question of national identity is particularly 
inflammatory.  A Carter Center representative believes that 
most problems will arise in the aftermath of the election, as 
it would be fairly easy to disrupt the tabulation process. 
 
¶5.  (C )  Comment:  The strong arm tactics used by the 
pro-FPI Young Patriots since 2002 have driven other political 
parties to allow their youth wings to develop a similar 
capacity for violence.  Local NGOs are clearly worried about 
the potential for violence to disrupt the elections and 
tarnish the results.   Now that the election has officially 
been postponed, we believe the time is right for the U.S. to 
make a public statement reiterating our view that elections 
need to take place as soon as possible and calling on 
political party leaders to renounce the use of violence to 
ensure a credible process. 
 
 
NESBITT