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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 YAOUNDE 000903 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2019 
TAGS: CM ECON PGOV SOCI
SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S INCONVENIENT TRUTH: THE 2005 CENSUS 
REVEALS IMPORTANT CHANGES 
 
REF: YAOUNDE 504 
 
Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Scott B. Ticknor for reasons 1.4 (d) and 
(e). 
 
¶1.  (C)  Summary:  A contact in the United Nations Population 
Fund (UNFPA) office in Yaounde recently shared with us a 
confidential summary document of the 2005 census conducted by 
the UNFPA and the Government of Cameroon (GRC).  The report 
was never released, apparently because of its political 
sensitivity.  Only the third census done since independence, 
the survey estimated a total population of 18 million in 
2008, expected to rise to 21.2 million by 2015.  Population 
growth is depicted as relatively high, slowing in recent 
years because of low fertility and high infant, juvenile and 
maternal mortality.  The census pointed to high growth in the 
three northern regions, despite evident migration of men from 
these and several other parts of the country.  The study 
found rapid urbanization, including a doubling in size of 
Yaounde and Douala between 1987 and 2005. 
 
¶2.  (C)  Summary continued:  The census results have 
important political implications, suggesting that the Grand 
North and the major cities should be getting more resources 
and attention.  Revelations of major population shifts would 
also have an impact on electoral districts, prompting 
questions about the state of voter registers.  Because of its 
political sensitivities, we do not expect the government to 
publish this census for some time, if they decide to do so at 
all.  The government claims to be factoring census results 
into planning, although there is no way to confirm this. 
Until the data is published, planning within the Cameroon 
government is likely to be out of sync with reality, possibly 
leading decision-makers into even greater difficulties with 
disgruntled, under-served populations.  End summary. 
 
Background 
---------- 
 
¶3.  (U)  The UNFPA, the Cameroonian Census Bureau and the 
former Ministry of Planning and Territorial Administration 
conducted a national census on November 11-December 6, 2005, 
Cameroon's third census since independence in 1960 (previous 
censuses were in 1976 and 1987).  The exercise employed over 
17,000 census agents and covered 85% of the population, a 
slightly less representative sample than in previous 
censuses.  The results are reportedly supported by 
post-census data. 
 
¶4.  (C)  The results of this census have never been 
published.  For the past four years, the international 
community and Cameroonian observers have pressed the GRC to 
publish the census, pointing out the difficulty of national 
planning without accurate demographic data.  The Ambassador 
has raised the need to publish the census on numerous 
occasions at senior levels of government.  Minister of 
Economy, Planning, and Rural Development Louis Paul Motaze 
told Ambassador that the census was awaiting approval from 
the presidency, which he thought was concerned that some 
information in the census had been manipulated by "elites." 
He assured Ambassador that census results were being factored 
into GRC long-term planning (reftel). 
 
The Big Picture: Growth in the North and the Cities 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  According to provisional census results, 
Cameroon's total population more than doubled in the past 30 
years, from 7.6 million in 1976 to 10.5 million in 1987 and 
17,123,688 in 2005.  The census projects a total population 
of 18 million by January 2008 and 21.2 million by 2015 - an 
increase of about 20 percent over ten years. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  The most populous of Cameroon's ten regions (with 
over 2 million inhabitants) were the Extreme North (3.1 
million people), Center (2.9 million, 56% of whom were in 
Yaounde) and Littoral (2.3 million, 74% of whom were in 
Douala), followed by the West (1.8 million), North West (1.7 
million), North (1.6 million) and South West (1.3 million). 
The least populated regions were Adamaoua (about 887,000), 
the East (797,000) and the South (555,000).  Overall 
population density was 36.7 inhabitants per square kilometer 
(up from 22.5 in 1987), with the most densely populated 
regions (in descending order) being the West, Littoral, North 
West and Extreme North regions. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  In descending order, Mfoundi Department (greater 
Yaounde), Wouri Department (greater Douala), and the 
Adamaoua, North and Extreme North regions had the highest 
 
YAOUNDE 00000903  002 OF 003 
 
 
population growth from 1987-2005, while the Littoral (minus 
Douala), North West, Center (without Yaounde), and West had 
an average annual growth below 2%.  According to the census 
summary, this reflects migration from the North West and West 
because of high population density and pressure on arable 
land, as well as pressure within the Littoral and Center to 
migrate to Douala and Yaounde.  According to the census 
summary, these growth patterns lead to projections that in 
2008, the most populous regions would be the Extreme North 
(18.2% of the total), West (10.3%), North (10.1%) and Douala 
(10.1%). 
 
A Story of Migration and Poverty 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  While 50.6% of the total population is comprised 
of women and 49.4% of men, half of the regions (Adamaoua, 
North, and especially the Extreme North, Northwest and West) 
have significantly more women than men.  According to the 
census summary, this largely reflects internal migration 
toward Yaounde, Douala and the agro-industrial areas of the 
South West region. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  The census found a rapid increase in urbanization, 
from 28% of the total population living in cities in 1976 to 
37.9% in 1987 and 46.4% in 2005.  The total number of 
inhabitants living in urban areas and the total number of 
cities with over 50,000 inhabitants doubled from 1987 to 
¶2005.  During this period, the population of Mfoundi 
Department (greater Yaounde) more than doubled to 1.64 
million and the population of Wouri Department (greater 
Douala) more than doubled to 1.7 million.  The next most 
populous cities, in descending order, were:  Bafoussam, 
Garoua, Maroua, Bamenda, Ngaoundere, and Kumba. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  The census reported 2.7% average annual 
population growth between the last two censuses, with slower 
than average growth (2.5%) in the period 2002-2005.  The 
average annual growth between the 1976 and 1987 censuses was 
slightly higher, at 2.8%.  The 2005 census cites 1991-2004 
government demographic data to argue that the slower 
population growth is explained in part by a drop in the 
fertility rate (from 5.8% in 1991 to 5% in 2004), a rise in 
infant mortality (65% to 74% during this period), and 
substantial increases in juvenile and maternal mortality - 
all reportedly linked to economic difficulties and rising 
unemployment. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶11.  (C)  President Paul Biya and the ruling Cameroon Peoples 
Democratic Movement (CPDM) party are increasingly in campaign 
mode for the scheduled 2011 presidential elections (to be 
followed by parliamentary polls in 2012).  Biya has called 
for jump-starting the economy to help avoid a repeat of 
nationwide riots in 2008 brought on by a combination of high 
prices, poverty and political discontent.  The election and 
the presidential succession process will be a delicate 
balance, with interests in Biya's center and southern 
heartland competing against northerners eager to regain power 
(former President Ahmadou Ahidjo was from the North), 
frustrated westerners (predominantly the wealthy but widely 
resented ethnic Bamilekes) and the anglophone areas of the 
North West and South West, whose residents often feel 
marginalized. 
 
¶12.  (C)  Most Cameroonian observers have surmised that 
President Biya was withholding the census for political 
reasons.  The UNFPA summary reinforces this view.  Biya is 
focused on politics, not economics.  He may feel that 
releasing a census showing higher growth in the northern 
regions could weaken his political hand, undermine his 
ability to manipulate election results (the census is crucial 
for election planning), and lead to calls for redistributing 
wealth and power.  The declining social indicators, rapid 
urbanization and gender disparities in some areas reinforce 
other evidence that rural poverty has been on the rise - also 
an uncomfortable truth in a more politically sensitive 
period. 
 
¶13.  (C)  We can't evaluate the quality of the census and 
don't have a complete data set.  The UNFPA contact who gave 
us the summary later called in a panic to say he wasn't 
supposed to give it to us because the government hadn't 
approved it and he urged us not to reveal that we had it. 
Given the political sensitivities of the report and the 
government's recalcitrance over the past four years, we don't 
expect to see the census published any time soon; the 
 
YAOUNDE 00000903  003 OF 003 
 
 
presidency may try to doctor the final version or release it 
late enough to mute its political implications (such as 
possible changes to the voter register and/or redistricting 
for the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections). 
The government may be using some of the census data in its 
economic and social sector planning.  Until the data is 
published, however, most planning in Cameroon will likely be 
based on 22-year-old data that doesn't reflect the country's 
rapid urbanization and growing poverty, and the rising 
demographic importance of the north. 
PETERSON