VZCZCXRO0396
RR RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN RUEHTRO
DE RUEHYD #0867/01 2871541
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 141541Z OCT 09 ZDS
FM AMEMBASSY YAOUNDE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0354
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/DIA WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 YAOUNDE 000867 
C O R R E C T E D  C O P Y (MODIFIED TEXT IN PARA 7) 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019 
TAGS: CM PGOV PHUM
SUBJECT: CAMEROON'S DISORGANIZED OPPOSITION SDF 
 
REF: A. YAOUNDE 724 
     ¶B. YAOUNDE 792 
 
Classified By: PolOff Erik Martini for reasons 1.4 (b) and (c) 
 
Summary 
------- 
 
¶1.  (C) Uncertainty over prospective presidential candidates, 
problems with internal party discipline, and a divisive 
corruption issue threaten the status of the Social Democratic 
Front (SDF) as Cameroon's largest opposition group.  Adding 
to Cameroon's political uncertainty are promises of 
demonstrations by both the SDF and other opposition 
activists.  While elections in 2011 remain distant, political 
pressure continues to build, especially as some fear 
President Biya may advance the election date.  End summary. 
 
No Presumptive SDF Presidential Candidate 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (C) Kah Walla, SDF leader and member of the Douala City 
Council, recently told poloff discussions were underway in 
the SDF to put forward a consensus party presidential 
candidate.  She hinted the SDF would not nominate John Fru 
Ndi, the longtime SDF leader and former presidential 
candidate, but she would not specify an alternative.  She 
said many in the SDF were looking for new, younger 
leadership.  Neither Walla nor prominent Douala-based SDF 
parliamentarian Jean Michel Nintcheu would deny they were 
interested in running for president when asked separately by 
poloff.  In a another meeting with poloff, SDF Secretary 
General Elizabeth Tamajong, who is considered close to Fru 
Ndi, would not speculate on the SDF candidate, insisting that 
a party convention would choose. 
 
Discipline Problem an SDF Nuisance 
--------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) While the SDF contemplates its presidential 
candidate, an internal discipline problem continues to dog 
the party.  On May 20, SDF leadership announced a general 
boycott of the Cameroonian National Day celebrations, citing 
the deplorable state of the nation.  Serge Simeon Noumba, the 
only SDF parliamentarian from the West Region, broke with the 
leadership and participated in a parade in his home region. 
Since then, the SDF has been agonizing over how to respond to 
his indiscipline, especially because expelling Noumba would 
deprive them of their "group" status in the parliament. 
(Note:  The SDF needs to retain 16 out of a total of 180 
seats in parliament to be considered a "group."  It currently 
has just 16 seats, while the next largest opposition 
representation in parliament holds only one seat.  A 
parliamentary group allows the party to have a seat on the 
steering committee, which governs parliament and conducts 
business on behalf of parliament when parliament is out of 
session.  The group chair and vice-chair are also entitled to 
official government residences.  End note.)  The SDF recently 
announced that a decision on the matter would be postponed 
until November. 
 
Declaration of Assets Controversy Adds to SDF Woes 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶4.  (C) The SDF leadership has been further tested by Article 
66 of the constitution, which requires government employees 
to declare their personal assets.  Intended to fight 
corruption and increase transparency in government, the 
article is widely ignored, unenforced and unimplemented, most 
famously by President Paul Biya himself.  Fru Ndi announced 
several months ago that he would declare his assets but 
recently said he would not follow through, rightly pointing 
out he is under no legal requirement to do so, as he is not a 
government employee.  Nonetheless, media reports on Fru Ndi's 
stance have been critical, wondering why he would not take 
the high road and draw the distinction between himself and 
President Biya in more stark terms, especially since he had 
promised to disclose his assets.  Nintcheu, one of the few 
government officials to have declared his assets, told poloff 
many in the party were upset with Fru Ndi's decision. 
 
SDF Hints at Unrest 
------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Nintcheu told poloff he would personally lead 
peaceful anti-government protests, as he did in February, 
¶2008.  He planned to demand specifically the reconstitution 
of ELECAM, Cameroon's controversial electoral commission, and 
reform of the electoral code.  Kah Walla also separately 
promised protests with similar demands.  Both believed 
 
YAOUNDE 00000867  002 OF 002 
 
 
President Biya would never make significant changes to the 
electoral machinery without protests.  They also thought it 
highly probable Biya would change the election date (ref A) 
to prevent the opposition from organizing.  Nintcheu said 
Cameroonian youth were at the point of revolt.  In a recent 
meeting with Ambassador, Fru Ndi said the average Cameroonian 
had fallen below "floor" level (i.e. public opinion has hit 
rock bottom) and none of the problems sparking the 2008 
violence had been solved. 
 
Other Opposition Voices Echo Political Uncertainty 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶6.  (C) SDF concerns are consistent with vibes from other 
opposition activists.  One independent journalist recently 
told poloff he believed political and economic conditions 
were worse than in 2008.  Bernard Njonga, civil society 
activist and director of the Citizen Association for the 
Defense of Collective Interests, promised he would lead 
protests at the end of August in Douala, although the 
protests turned into muted "cultural gatherings" dubbed as a 
national tour throughout the month of September.  Hilaire 
Kamga, Director of the prominent human rights NGO "The New 
Rights of Man," recently told Pol/Econ Chief he plans to roll 
out a major civil society platform for change in October.  In 
a recent meeting with Ambassador, Progressive Movement party 
parliamentarian Jean Jacques Ekindi said ELECAM does not yet 
have a full budget and has not received any equipment or 
resources from the old election commission.  He also noted 
that Cameroon's election law does not even conform to the 
2008 constitutional revision.  On whether President Biya 
would advance the election date, Ekindi believed ELECAM's 
lack of preparedness would act as a deterrent. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Despite the failure of major protests to materialize 
so far in 2009, the threat of political unrest could build as 
the election draws nearer.  On the other hand, vague 
statements about protests and youth revolts create a sense 
that the SDF would prefer to fall back on hackneyed rhetoric 
than attempt a strategic approach to political change.  By 
raising the possibility of a new "consensus candidate," the 
SDF demonstrates that it can think outside its box.  However, 
it is not clear they have done any outreach to other parties, 
or disgruntled elements within the CPDM, to organize a viable 
candidate.  Our sense is that at this point other party 
leaders would not rally behind an SDF candidate.  We are also 
dubious that current discussions about the need for a newer, 
younger candidate will survive what will surely be a full 
court press by John Fru Ndi to ensure that he continues to 
carry the standard of the SDF.  These elements combined lead 
us to believe that, whether or not Biya advances the election 
date, the opposition is likely to be unprepared.  We will 
continue to advocate for improved election machinery (ref B) 
and a healthy political competition.  End Comment. 
PETERSON