VZCZCXYZ0931
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHSM #0629/01 2790912
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 060912Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 4773
INFO RUCNAFG/AFGHANISTAN COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STOCKHOLM 000629 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2029 
TAGS: PREL PMIL PGOV KPAO AF SW
SUBJECT: SWEDISH DEFENSE MINISTER ON AFGHANISTAN: "PLEASE 
DO NOT EXCLUDE YOUR PARTNERS" 
 
REF: A. STOCKHOLM 478 
     ¶B. STOCKHOLM 440 
 
Classified By: Amb. Matthew Barzun, reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In his October 2 meeting with the Ambassador, 
Swedish Defense Minister Tolgfors spoke primarily about 
Afghanistan.  Highlights included: 
 
-- Security in Sweden's PRT was good during the elections but 
is declining overall.  Swedish  troops are patrolling more 
aggressively as a result.  Sixty more troops will be deployed 
by the end of the year, taking the total to 500. 
 
-- Swedish aid to Afghanistan is up, reaching approximately 
$170 million for the next three years.  The MOD is pushing 
for more civilian resources in the interagency, but Tolgfors 
himself is keeping a low profile on the issue to avoid 
highlighting the "imbalance" between military and civilian 
resources. 
 
-- Support for the Afghanistan deployment is low among 
members of the largest opposition party.  Tolgfors is doing 
what he can to "keep them on board." 
 
-- Regarding the ongoing review of Afghanistan policy, 
Tolgfors asked that ISAF contributors be involved. "Please do 
not exclude your partners," he said. 
 
End Summary. 
 
Security Declines Mean More Troops, More Patrols 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶2. (C) Noting he had returned from Afghanistan less than two 
weeks ago, Tolgfors said the security situation in Sweden's 
PRT was good during the presidential elections, with greater 
than 50% voter turnout and all 136 polling centers operating 
without any security problems.  But overall, security was 
declining.  Tolgfors noted a "balloon effect" of increased 
pressure against insurgent forces in the South pushing 
"pockets of Taliban" northward into Sweden's PRT.  In 
response, Sweden is now actively patrolling areas "where we 
know we don't have full control because we don't want the 
others to get control there."  Sweden will increase its troop 
presence in Afghanistan from the current 440 to 500 by the 
end of this year, he said.  "Not just the numbers will 
increase but also their capacity, with more heavy equipment 
and an additional OMLT," he added.  The military was having 
no problem recruiting volunteers for international missions, 
and a recent recruiting drive for next year's Afghanistan 
deployment brought in 15 times more applicants than available 
spots. 
 
Military Pushing for More Development Aid 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) On the development side, Swedish aid in multilateral 
and bilateral channels will reach nearly $170 million U.S. 
dollars over the next three years (Ref A).  Sweden's armed 
forces had taken the lead in the Swedish interagency in 
pushing for a "comprehensive approach" to Afghanistan with 
Chief of the General Staff Sverker Goransson pushing for more 
resources to go to civilian aid agencies.  Tolgfors noted 
that he was not speaking too much publicly about the need for 
more civilian aid himself because he did not want to 
highlight the imbalance between military and civilian 
commitments.  Rebalancing could occur in one of two ways he 
noted, "and we don't want to see them drop troops but rather 
increase the civilian presence." 
 
¶4. (C) Tolgfors commented that Sweden and other ISAF members 
had done a good job helping the Afghan National Army but had 
done a poor job with respect to the Afghan National Police. 
Sweden currently has six police in Afghanistan but is 
planning to increase that number by the end of the year (Ref 
B).  "We have the ambition to double our support to the EUPOL 
Mission," he said, but noted two problems: the political 
issue that governments find it hard to justify publicly 
removing police from their own streets, and the practical 
problem that --  unlike with soldiers -- there is no 
tradition of sending police on international deployments. 
 
Political Support for Afghan Deployments 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶5. (C) Asked about Swedish public support for the Afghanistan 
mission, Tolgfors said that 68% of voters who back the 
four-party ruling coalition government are in favor of the 
Swedish military presence in Afghanistan, but the 
corresponding figure for supporters of the largest opposition 
 
party, the Social Democrats (SDP), is 33%.  To date the SDP 
leadership has been in favor of the Afghanistan deployments, 
which were initiated under the previous SDP government. 
Tolgfors said he was committed to be fully open with the SDP 
on the Afghanistan mission because he wanted to "keep them on 
board."  He noted that the SDP foreign policy spokesman Urban 
Ahlin had met with him for an extensive briefing the week 
before.  Asked about reports that the Greens, coalition 
partners of the SDP, had recently begun to change their views 
on the continued military presence in Afghanistan, Tolgfors 
said that they were under pressure and were now talking only 
about the need for a withdrawal plan. 
 
"Don't Exclude Your Partners" on Afghanistan Review 
--------------------------------------------- ------ 
 
¶6. (C) Turning to the COMISAF initial assessment and the 
ongoing U.S. strategic review of Afghanistan, Tolgfors 
stated, "when it comes to an evaluation of what is being 
done, please do not exclude your partners."  He noted "real 
concern" among the EU Member States during the September 
28-29 informal EU Defense Ministerial in Goteborg, adding 
that "there are 28 NATO members but 42 nations contributing 
to the military mission in Afghanistan, and so the ISAF 
format is essential for consultations and evaluations."  It 
is important that the international community not discuss an 
end date for ISAF's presence in Afghanistan or discuss how 
many casualties it can accept before pulling out, Tolgfors 
said.  Rather, it is important to make clear that ISAF will 
stay until the mission is done.  As with the Balkans, it is 
essential that we maintain an "in together, out together" 
public posture with respect to Afghanistan, Tolgfors stated. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶7. (C) The governing coalition has a seven-seat majority in 
the 349-seat Parliament and could in theory force through 
legislation this fall extending the Swedish deployment 
through 2010.  However, no post-War Swedish government has 
ever before sent troops abroad without consensus among the 
main governing and opposition parties.  So once again, the 
Government will need the opposition Social Democrats to 
support its annual Afghanistan bill. 
BARZUN