VZCZCXRO4298
OO RUEHCHI RUEHDT RUEHFK RUEHHM RUEHKSO RUEHPB
DE RUEHGP #1057/01 3030706
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 300706Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY SINGAPORE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 7379
RHEHAAA/WHITE HOUSE WASHDC IMMEDIATE
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHZU/ASIAN PACIFIC ECONOMIC COOPERATION
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHHMUNA/CDR USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 SINGAPORE 001057 
 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR THE PRESIDENT FROM THE CHARGE D'AFFAIRES 
STATE PLEASE PASS TO USTR 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2019 
TAGS: PREL ECON MARR OVIP POTUS SN ASEAN
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR THE PRESIDENT'S TRIP TO SINGAPORE 
 
Classified By: CDA Daniel Shields, for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1.  (C) Mr. President, Singapore is abuzz over your return to 
Asia.  Your visit, in the wake of your historic 
changing-of-the-generations meeting in Washington with 
Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, has the potential to change 
fundamentally perceptions of the United States in the region. 
 Your presence in Singapore is widely interpreted as 
confirming that, in Secretary Clinton's words, "the United 
States is back" in Southeast Asia.  Through your 
participation in the main event coming up here in Singapore 
-- the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders 
Meeting -- as well as through your meetings with Singapore's 
leaders and the first-ever U.S.-ASEAN Summit, you have an 
excellent opportunity to demonstrate American leadership on 
the global economic recovery, to enhance the already 
excellent relationship between the United States and 
Singapore, and to forge a new era in America's relationship 
with ASEAN. 
 
Singapore Right Now 
- - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2.  (C) Singapore, as one of the world's great ports and 
trading hubs, has long made its living from the global 
economy.  In this context, the severe problems that swept 
through the world economy hit Singapore particularly rapidly, 
plunging the city-state into the worst recession it has 
experienced since independence in 1965.  Even in the depths 
of recession, however, the Government of Singapore, which had 
accumulated large reserves in the good years, was able to 
cushion the blow for the average Singaporean by passing a 
budget package that saved jobs, largely through training 
programs, and that kept businesses afloat while the country 
waited for its trading partners to recover.  The dramatic 
fall-off in international trade last year harmed Singapore's 
economy, but the resurgence of global trade has brought a 
rapid revival of economic activity.  Singapore officials are 
still concerned that unemployment remains unacceptably high, 
although Singapore's 5.0 percent unemployment rate remains 
low by global standards.  Singaporeans worry that the global 
recovery may not move forward smoothly and predictably.  They 
understand, however, that this is something beyond 
Singapore's control.  Singapore is taking active measures in 
the areas it can control to enhance its growth prospects over 
the medium to long term.  The government recently established 
a public/private Economic Strategies Committee to develop 
recommendations on how to reorient Singapore's economy to 
focus on new industries like green technologies, to enhance 
productivity, and to cope with intensifying competition from 
its neighbors, particularly China and India. 
 
¶3.  (C) U.S.-Singapore economic ties remain strong, but 
Singapore is looking increasingly to Asia and particularly to 
China to spur growth over the long term.  Asia is now seen as 
Singapore's key growth market, as evidenced by the shift in 
new investments by Singapore's Sovereign Wealth Funds away 
from the United States and other developed economies and 
toward Asia (outside Japan) and other developing economies. 
Although we expect to see Singapore continue to engage the 
United States economically, particularly by targeting areas 
of excellence from business and higher education, we expect 
to see Singapore's economic engagement with China increase 
from already high levels, with Singapore investing heavily in 
China's infrastructure and seeking to tap into China's 
prospects for consumer-led growth. 
 
¶4.  (C) On the political front, Singapore's People's Action 
Party (PAP), founded by Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew, remains 
firmly entrenched in power, as it has been since 1959, when 
Singapore first won from Britain a degree of self-rule. 
Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong may not be as charismatic as 
his father Lee Kuan Yew, but the PM has shown himself to be a 
highly competent and effective technocratic leader for 
Singapore.  To be sure, there are voices within Singapore 
calling for more open democracy, but many Singaporeans remain 
more focused on preserving the prosperity and security that 
PAP rule has helped provide.  The Prime Minister shares his 
father's pro-American stance and continues to welcome a 
substantial and enduring U.S. presence in the region. 
Singapore, while extremely tuned in to the opportunities 
presented by the rise of China and India, does not want any 
 
SINGAPORE 00001057  002 OF 003 
 
 
one power to dominate, or play an exclusive role in, the 
region.  Singapore sees a strong and sustained U.S. presence 
as an important hedge against that risk. 
 
¶5.  (C) Singapore remains acutely aware of its small size, 
with a total population at about the five million mark (3.2 
million Singapore citizens, 500 thousand permanent resident 
foreigners, and 1.2 million other foreigners).  As in the 
past, a feeling of vulnerability often drives Singaporean 
policy.  Militarily, Singapore constantly seeks technological 
advantage and is an avid consumer of advanced American (and 
Israeli) defense products.  In foreign policy, the perception 
of vulnerability is manifested in a policy best described as 
"be friends with everyone," which may have benefits in terms 
of relations with its neighbors, particularly Singapore's 
solidarity with ASEAN partners, but has at times put the 
United States and Singapore at odds on issues such as human 
rights in Burma.  But out of the sense of vulnerability comes 
perhaps Singapore's greatest strength:  a continuous drive to 
succeed.  Singapore today remains highly competitive 
precisely because it has willed itself to be number one, 
constantly challenging its people to improve.  As recently as 
September, the Prime Minister said in a widely publicized 
speech: "some people say we can afford to be just a little 
bit more relaxed, no need to be number one all the time, just 
once in awhile will do.  But if you take that attitude, soon 
we will be number two, number three and then eventually we 
will be back at the (village) level again." 
 
U.S.-Singapore Relations 
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6.  (C) Singapore remains a "partner" rather than an "ally," 
but the bottom line is that the relationship is excellent. 
Military cooperation is vigorous, as it has been since the 
United States accepted Singapore's offer of access to 
Singaporean facilities in order to enable the United States 
to maintain an effective regional presence after the former 
U.S. bases in the Philippines were closed.  Our 2005 
Strategic Framework Agreement with Singapore has solidified 
our security ties and Singapore remains a hub for our Pacific 
Command forces' logistics operations.  Singaporean forces 
train at six different locations in the United States. 
Singapore has contributed to the efforts in Afghanistan and 
Iraq and is set to take over command of the Combined Task 
Force 151 counter-piracy operations off the coast of Somalia 
in January.  We receive very good cooperation from Singapore 
on terrorism and nonproliferation issues, although we would 
welcome a more proactive approach on cooperation from 
Singapore Customs regarding the transshipment of dual-use 
goods and other suspect cargoes. 
 
¶7.  (C) The global downturn took a toll on U.S.-Singapore 
trade, which dropped 24 percent compared to last year. 
Nevertheless, tiny Singapore is our top destination in Asia 
for foreign direct investment -- ahead of Japan and China. 
Singapore is our 12th largest export market.  The United 
States runs one of our largest bilateral trade surpluses with 
Singapore, due to Singapore's status as a regional trade hub. 
 Our economic relationship has come to be defined by our Free 
Trade Agreement with Singapore.  In the first five years 
since the FTA came into effect in 2004, U.S. exports grew by 
over 74 percent.  Although Government-Linked Corporations 
(GLCs) continue to play a major role in Singapore's economy, 
Singapore shares America's strong belief in the power of 
markets and trade and has been an influential partner in 
global economic fora. 
 
¶8.  (C) Our bilateral relationship is at a historic high and 
continues to deepen and broaden.  Our mid-sized Embassy 
houses 18 different federal agencies who are actively engaged 
with Singaporean counterparts in managing our relationship. 
Over 20,000 Americans live in Singapore and an estimated 
1,500 American companies have a presence in Singapore.  Many 
Singaporean parents yearn to get their children into American 
universities and Singapore is recruiting American students to 
its excellent universities. Approximately 650,000 passengers 
transited between the United States and Singapore in 2008. 
 
Key Opportunities From Our On-The-Ground Perspective 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
 
SINGAPORE 00001057  003 OF 003 
 
 
¶9.  (C) Your Washington advisors will no doubt brief you on 
the substance of your meetings here, but we thought it might 
be useful to close by highlighting some of the key 
atmospherics surrounding your visit and how these factors may 
affect what the United States can accomplish during your 
visit and beyond. 
 
¶10.  (C) First and foremost, the widespread recognition that 
the United States is back in the region cannot be overstated 
and offers an opportunity to capitalize on a new level of 
acceptance of America's regional role.  With the global 
economic recovery being led by Asian economies, this is an 
opportune moment to press for open financial and trade 
initiatives -- whether new, or ones we may have shied away 
from in the past -- which would lay the groundwork for 
mutually beneficial growth for years to come. 
 
¶11.  (C) Some in Singapore, while acknowledging that the 
United States may be back in the region, wonder how long this 
will last.  Singapore, as it seeks to preserve some room to 
maneuver in a region of rising giants, wants to see a strong 
and stable U.S. presence.  The mood here appears receptive to 
enhancing and deepening U.S. engagement in the region over 
the long term, sending the message -- and taking the actions 
to back it up -- that we are here to stay in the region as, 
in Secretary Gates' phrase, "a resident power." 
 
¶12.  (C) Not uncharacteristically, Singapore is obsessing 
these days about its place in the world, whether it is 
anxiety over Indonesia somehow surpassing it (few 
Singaporeans would admit it, but there is jealousy here that 
Indonesia is formally in the G-20 and Singapore is not), a 
fear that jobs are shifting to China or elsewhere, or even 
worries that complacency could in the long term threaten 
Singapore's stability.  Any reassurance that you would give 
that Singapore remains a valued partner and important 
international player would be well received and likely pay 
dividends down the road. 
 
¶13.  (C) Although Singaporeans publicly avoid using the term 
"ally" when describing the bilateral relationship, Lee Kuan 
Yew has told visiting U.S. officials privately that Singapore 
considers itself an "undeclared ally" of the United States. 
America's unfettered access to Singapore's naval and air 
facilities, Singapore's support in Afghanistan and Iraq, and, 
more recently, Singapore's work with Chile to block 
Non-Aligned Movement consensus in support of Iran's position 
at the IAEA in September are all evidence that this 
city-state, which wants to "be friends with everyone," still 
sees its American friends as first among equals.  As Lee Kuan 
Yew made clear in Washington, Singapore does not want to see 
the East Asian region defined in closed or racial terms and 
wants the United States to be part of any new East Asian 
framework.  Your visit provides a powerful symbol of the 
American engagement in the region that Singapore so clearly 
wants and needs.  In this context, while Singapore prefers to 
do its diplomacy quietly and behind the scenes, we should not 
shy away from asking Singapore for explicit support on major 
or controversial issues that are important to us, 
particularly when we can make a clear link to Singapore's own 
interests. 
 
¶14.  (C) Your Embassy welcomes you to Singapore.  We will do 
everything we can to work with your team from Washington to 
make your visit a success that surpasses even the high 
expectations that surround it. 
 
SHIELDS 
 
Visit Embassy Singapore's Classified website: 
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/eap/singapore/ind ex.cfm