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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 NEW DELHI 002196 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2020 
TAGS: PREL PTER PINS MAPP IN
SUBJECT: PM SINGH TO MILITARY CHIEFS: BE READY BECAUSE "OUR 
NEIGHBORHOOD SITUATION HAS WORSENED" 
 
Classified By: Political Counselor Uzra Zeya.  Reason: 1.4 (b,d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: In a much-publicized October 20 speech to the 
senior commanders of India's armed forces, Prime Minister 
Manmohan Singh urged the military to "be prepared to face 
onslaughts" in light of "regular intelligence reports of 
imminent attacks" in India.  Pointing out that India is 
threatened by "both State and non-State actors" (read 
Pakistan), the PM observed that the "overall situation in our 
immediate neighborhood has worsened" over the past year. 
Turning to the issue of military preparedness, Singh stressed 
the need for maximum self-reliance in defense technology 
because "the availability of critical technology from foreign 
countries is still subject to various technology denial 
regimes."  In an oblique reference to past 
procurement-related scandals, the PM reminded the chiefs that 
defense deals must be conducted with transparency and 
probity.  The speech can be seen as an alert to the Indian 
armed forces, a reminder to the Indian public that they 
continue to face a substantial risk of terrorist attacks, and 
a form of cover against opposition allegations of GOI 
complacency in the event that such attacks do occur here. 
End Summary. 
 
"Regular Reports of Imminent Terror Attacks" 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2. (U) Singh's annual address to the "Combined Commanders 
Conference" began by thanking the Indian armed forces for its 
"stellar role in assisting the civil authority in meeting the 
challenges in Jammu and Kashmir and tackling insurgencies in 
the North-East."  He went on to state that the November 2008 
Mumbai terror attacks "confirmed our worst fears" about 
terrorism and reminded India that "there are both State and 
non-State actors involved in the business of terrorism" 
(Note: At the risk of stating the obvious, we point out that 
Singh was referring to Pakistan).  While Singh warned that 
India must "avoid kneejerk reactions" to such attacks (a 
clear defense of Singh's decision not to retaliate openly 
against Pakistan after the Mumbai attacks), he urged military 
leaders to "be prepared to face onslaughts" in light of 
"regular intelligence reports of imminent attacks" in India 
and because the "overall situation in our immediate 
neighborhood has worsened" over the past year.  The recent 
attack on the Indian Embassy in Kabul was "yet another grim 
reminder of the forces we are pitted against." 
 
¶3. (U) Turning to the issue of military preparedness, the 
Prime Minister stated that his government is "fully committed 
to the modernization of Armed Forces and ensuring their 
military superiority and technological edge."  He maintained 
that "the availability of critical technology from foreign 
countries is still subject to various technology denial 
regimes" so India must "achieve maximum self-reliance in the 
critical areas of defense technology."  He reminded the 
chiefs that even though the military's procurement budget has 
increased markedly, they must conform to the "highest 
standards of transparency, probity, and public 
accountability."  In a related post-speech development, 
Defense Minister Antony announced that the GOI would 
introduce on November 1 new guidelines for defense 
procurement that will place special emphasis on transaction 
transparency. 
 
Reaction 
-------- 
 
¶4. (C) Embassy contacts were a bit surprised by Singh's 
"deteriorating neighborhood" comment and pointed out that in 
fact, rather than deteriorating, most of India's neighbors 
have achieved relative stability.  As Dr. Sushant Sareen of 
the Institute of Defense Studies and Analyses put it, 
compared to previous years Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and 
even the Maldives are doing a lot better now.  The experts 
held that PM Singh was referring primarily to the chaos in 
Pakistan and Afghanistan -- and perhaps obliquely to recent 
tensions with China.  Ajai Sahni of the Institute for 
Conflict Management emphasized that Singh's "neighborhood" 
comments referred to the "spiral of violence in the Punjabi 
 
NEW DELHI 00002196  002 OF 002 
 
 
heartland of Pakistani stability" and also to Afghanistan, 
and only secondarily to China.  Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Foreign 
Affairs Editor of the "Hindustan Times" daily, encouraged us 
not to read too much into the comments about the worsening 
neighborhood, as he perceived the speech as primarily focused 
on internal military reforms. 
 
¶5. (C) Contacts also opined that the PM's emphasis on 
technological self-reliance and on transparent procurement 
practices underlines his concerns about corruption and 
bureaucratic bottlenecks in the current system.  Sandeep 
Dikshit, Defense Correspondent for "The Hindu" newspaper, 
said that Singh's focus on modernization, acquisition of 
arms, and engagement of youth in the services boldly 
underlined the major tasks ahead to address these 
long-pending difficulties and make the Indian armed forces 
capable of addressing threats like terrorism and insurgency 
in India and what India sees as the worsening situation in 
Pakistan.  Defense industry blogger and analyst Manohar 
Thyagaraj told us that Singh's line about "foreign technology 
denial regimes" was a clear and direct reference to USG 
reluctance to transfer technology to India. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶6. (C) PM Singh's speech can be seen as an alert to the 
Indian armed forces to be prepared for potential conflict, a 
reminder to the Indian public that the country continues to 
face a substantial risk of terrorist attacks, and a form of 
cover against opposition allegations of GOI complacency in 
the event that such attacks do occur here.  Singh's comments 
about India's indigenous defense technology needs highlight 
potential commercial opportunities for American companies, 
while the PM's thinly-veiled complaint about foreign 
reluctance to share technology identifies a potential 
obstacle.  GOI focus on procurement transparency means that 
U.S. companies should be attractive partners for an India 
looking to instill greater public accountability into its 
procurement practices, although local defense analysts opine 
that recent allegations of corruption involving 
representatives of some U.S.-based companies may tarnish the 
hitherto sterling reputation for probity of American firms. 
ROEMER