INFO  LOG-00   AF-00    AGRE-00  CA-00    CIAE-00  INL-00   DODE-00  
      DS-00    EAP-00   DHSE-00  EUR-00   UTED-00  VCI-00   H-00     
      TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    LAB-01   MOFM-00  MOF-00   VCIE-00  
      DCP-00   NSAE-00  OIC-00   OMB-00   NIMA-00  EPAU-00  PA-00    
      MCC-00   GIWI-00  DOHS-00  SP-00    IRM-00   FMP-00   CBP-00   
      BBG-00   EPAE-00  IIP-00   SCRS-00  DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-00   
      NFAT-00  SAS-00   FA-00    SWCI-00  PESU-00  SANA-00    /001W
   
R 011221Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1205
INFO AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA 
AMEMBASSY ASMARA 
AMEMBASSY DJIBOUTI 
AMEMBASSY KAMPALA 
NSC WASHDC
USEU BRUSSELS
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 
USMISSION USUN ROME IT
USMISSION GENEVA

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002083 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID for AFR EGAST, CTHOMPSON 
USAID/DCHA JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA FOR CCHAN; ACONVERY; KCHANNELL; MBEERS; 
APIYAKA DCHA/FFP JBORNS; JDWORKEN; SANTHONY; CMUTAMBA; 
DNELSON; 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
ROME FOR HSPANOS 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
BRUSSELS FOR USEU JADDLETON; PBROWN 
NSC FOR CPRATT 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF KE
SUBJECT: KENYA - 2010 HUMANITARIAN RESPONSE PLANNING 
 
------- 
SUMMARY 
------- 
 
¶1.  On September 23 and 24, the Kenya U.N. Office for 
the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) 
organized the 2010 Kenya Emergency Humanitarian 
Response Plan (EHRP) workshop to asses current and 
projected countrywide humanitarian conditions to inform 
the development of the 2010 EHRP scheduled for release 
in November.  Participants highlighted projected 2010 
humanitarian conditions characterized by continued 
effects of flooding resulting from anticipated enhanced 
2009 October to December short rains; the likelihood of 
continued drought conditions despite heavy 2009 short 
rains; increased conflict and displacement resulting 
from competition for limited resources, as well as 
potential flashpoints associated with Mau forest 
evictions and the constitutional referendum process; a 
continued influx of Somali refuges; and increased urban 
vulnerability.  End summary. 
 
---------- 
BACKGROUND 
---------- 
 
¶2.  The EHRP is an annual inter-agency strategy 
developed by U.N. agencies and non-governmental 
organizations (NGOs) in consultation with Government of 
Kenya (GOK) and donor partners that outlines and 
prioritizes humanitarian response activities as part of 
consolidated appeal. 
 
¶3.  In November 2008, the U.N. released the initial 
2009 Kenya EHRP for USD 392 million, targeting 
remaining post-election violence needs, emerging 
drought conditions, and refugee assistance.  In March 
2009, the U.N. released a revised 2009 EHRP requesting 
an additional USD 189, for a total of USD 581 million, 
in response to increased humanitarian needs associated 
with severe drought conditions and increased food 
insecurity. 
 
¶4.  The U.S. Government (USG) represents the single, 
largest donor, providing an estimated USD 87 million in 
humanitarian assistance to Kenya in 2009 and accounting 
for more than 30 percent of total contributions, 
according to OCHA.  Japan is the second largest donor, 
with USD 24 million in assistance, representing 
approximately 8 percent of total humanitarian 
contributions, followed by the U.K. with USD 11 million 
in assistance. 
 
--------------- 
CURRENT CONTEXT 
--------------- 
 
¶5.  Consecutive seasons of failed rains have resulted 
in acute water shortages in pastoralist regions of 
North Eastern and Eastern provinces; an estimated 28 
percent reduction in the main 2009 long rain harvest; 
and an increase in malnutrition rates and food 
beneficiaries from 1.3 million to 3.8 million since 
August 2008.  Insecurity in some areas of Kenya 
continues to reduce access and impede response efforts, 
including Mandera, Laikipia, and West Pokot districts. 
In addition, the crisis in Somalia continues to fuel 
refugee flows into Kenya. 
 
--------------------- 
Looking Ahead in 2010 
--------------------- 
 
--- Climate Conditions --- 
 
¶6.  The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) reported 
that El Nino conditions are expected to result in 
enhanced rains throughout Kenya during the October to 
December short rains season and extension of the short 
rain season into January 2010.  El Nino conditions are 
expected to result in normal to above-normal rainfall 
in the region, positively impacting agriculture and 
food security but also potentially resulting in 
flooding, reduced access, and increased incidences of 
human and livestock water-related diseases.  However, 
the KMD highlighted the likelihood of continued drought 
conditions in 2010 despite heavy 2009 short rains. 
 
--- Urban Vulnerabilities --- 
 
¶7.  Urbanization represents an increasing trend in 
Kenya and worldwide, with urban residents projected to 
account for half of the Kenyan population by 2020. 
According to Oxfam, approximately one-third of all 
Kenyan urban populations subsist on less than USD 1 a 
day, confronting limited livelihood opportunities and 
significant vulnerabilities.  An absence of 
surveillance, monitoring, and targeted response efforts 
characterize urban areas.  OCHA highlighted the need 
for increased attention and planning to address the 
vulnerabilities of urban populations. 
 
¶8.  In recent months, rising food prices and reduced 
casual labor opportunities have resulted in widespread 
reductions in meal size and frequency among urban 
populations, according to Oxfam.  The long rains 
assessment identified 2.5 million chronically food 
insecure individuals located in urban areas.  Poor 
water, sanitation, and hygiene services and 
infrastructure combined with a high population density 
in urban areas result in increased risk of disease 
outbreaks, such as cholera.  High numbers of unemployed 
youth contribute to general insecurity in urban areas 
and potential escalations in tensions and conflict. 
 
--- Cross-border Issues --- 
 
¶9.  Cross-border tensions and insecurity are expected 
to continue to affect humanitarian conditions and staff 
security in Kenya.  Drought conditions have resulted in 
increased pastoralist and livestock migration from 
Kenya to Ethiopia and Somalia, increasing tensions 
associated with competition for scarce resources and 
the potential for the spread of human and livestock 
diseases, such as cholera, polio, peste des petits 
ruminants (PPR), and Rift Valley Fever in the coming 
months. 
 
¶10.  According to Office of the U.N. High Commissioner 
for Refugees (UNHCR), the current refugee population in 
Kenya is estimated at 486,000 individuals?a significant 
increase from the 2008 refugee population total of 
355,000 individuals.  UNHCR projects that by December 
2009, the total refugee population in Kenya will exceed 
500,000 individuals.  According to UNHCR, approximately 
283,000 refugees are currently located in the Dadaab 
refugee complex in North Eastern Province, in a 
facility originally intended to accommodate a 
population of 90,000 individuals. UNHCR anticipates a 
continued influx of Somali refugees in 2010 that will 
exacerbate current levels of severe overcrowding and 
inadequate service provision. 
 
--- Peace and Reconciliation and Internal Displacement --- 
 
¶11.  The impact and recovery of post-election violence 
(PEV) remains ongoing in Kenya.  In addition, UNHCR 
notes inadequate IDP definitions and tracking 
mechanisms in Kenya.  According to UNHCR, there are 
approximately 300,000 IDPs from previous PEV crises 
between 1992 and 2007 currently in Kenya. 
 
¶12.  Drought conditions have exacerbated resource-based 
conflict in affected areas.  Between June and August, 
the Horn of Africa Intergovernmental Authority on 
Development (IGAD) initiative Conflict Early Warning 
and Response Mechanism (CEWARN) reported 158 security 
incidents and 144 deaths in the Karamoja cluster area 
of Kenya, including 38 cross-border raids.  During the 
same time period, CEWARN reported 60 incidents and 62 
deaths in the Somali cluster of Kenya. 
 
¶13.  UNHCR highlighted potential new threats in 2010, 
including conflict and displacement associated with the 
proposed Mau Forest evictions, pastoralist competition 
for limited resources, El Nino flooding, and the 
release of International Criminal Court (ICC) 
indictments. 
 
----------------------------------------- 
2010 EHRP Sector and Strategic Priorities 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶14.   Participants in the 2010 EHRP workshop identified 
11 sectors for inclusion in the 2010 EHRP, including 
coordination, early recovery, education, food aid, food 
security and agriculture, health, multi-sector refugee 
assistance, nutrition, protection, shelter and non-food 
items (NFIs), and water, sanitation, and hygiene. 
Participants identified four strategic objectives for 
the 2010 EHRP; achieve national and international 
standards in humanitarian service provision; increase 
coordination and linkage mechanisms among relevant 
stakeholders; improve information coordination and 
management; integrate disaster risk reduction and early 
recovery approaches into humanitarian response efforts. 
The finalized 2010 EHRP is scheduled for release in 
November 2009. 
 
------- 
COMMENT 
------- 
 
¶15.  USAID/OFDA staff note that the 2009 EHRP totaling 
more than a half billion USD reflects a blurring of the 
distinction between humanitarian and development 
assistance.  Although USAID/OFDA welcomes the release 
of the 2010 EHRP, projected to exceed the 2009 EHRP 
appeal, USAID/OFDA notes that EHRP has evolved into an 
expansive list of projects and activities intended to 
rapidly address long-term, chronic development and 
infrastructure deficits that are beyond the scope of 
humanitarian assistance.  USAID/OFDA will continue to 
monitor current and evolving humanitarian conditions 
and collaborate with development partners and the 
Government of Kenya to address immediate needs. 
 
RANNEBERGER