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      UTED-00  VCI-00   FDRE-01  H-00     TEDE-00  INR-00   IO-00    
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      DSCC-00  PRM-00   DRL-00   NFAT-00  SAS-00   FA-00    SWCI-00  
      PESU-00    /002W
 
R 010622Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY NAIROBI
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 1197
INFO SOMALIA COLLECTIVE
USMISSION UN ROME 
NSC WASHDC
CJTF HOA
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

UNCLAS NAIROBI 002079 
 
 
AIDAC 
 
USAID/DCHA FOR JBRAUSE 
DCHA/OFDA FOR ACONVERY, KCHANNELL, APIYAKA 
DCHA/FFP FOR JBORNS, JDWORKEN, SANTHONY, CMUTAMBA, 
PMOHAN,DNELSON 
AFR/EA 
STATE FOR AF/E, AF/F AND PRM 
USUN FOR DMERCADO 
ROME FOR HSPANOS 
BRUSSELS FOR PBROWN 
GENEVA FOR NKYLOH 
 
E.O. 12958:  N/A 
TAGS: EAID PHUM PREL PREF SO
SUBJECT:  SOMALIA FY 2010 DISASTER REDECLARATION 
 
CORRECTED COPY 
 
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SUMMARY 
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¶1.  According to the U.N. Food and Agriculture 
Organization (FAO) Food Security and Nutrition Analysis 
Unit (FSNAU), nearly 3.8 million people require 
humanitarian assistance in Somalia, representing 50 
percent of the total population and a 17 percent 
increase since January 2009.  The combined effects of 
consecutive seasons of failed or poor rainfall, 
conflict, high food prices, significant population 
displacement, and diarrheal disease outbreaks have 
severely exacerbated food insecurity and resulted in 
increased malnutrition rates throughout Somalia. 
Humanitarian organizations are also expecting enhanced 
rains associated with El Nino conditions during the 
upcoming October to December rainy season to result in 
flooding, reduced access, and increased incidences of 
human and livestock water-related diseases.  It is in 
the interest of the U.S. Government (USG) to provide 
humanitarian funding, the situation is beyond the 
capacity of the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) 
to manage and the Somali people will continue to accept 
USG assistance.  Ambassador Michael Ranneberger 
therefore re-declares a disaster for the complex 
humanitarian emergency in Somalia and requests the 
continued provision of disaster assistance in fiscal 
year 2010.  End summary. 
 
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BACKGROUND 
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¶2.  According to FSNAU, nearly 3.8 million Somalis 
require humanitarian assistance through December 2009. 
The total includes approximately 1.4 million rural, 
drought-affected individuals; an estimated 655,000 
urban poor confronting high food and non-food prices; 
and nearly 1.6 million internally displaced persons 
(IDPs). 
 
¶3.  The majority of affected populations are 
concentrated in central Somalia, accounting for 
approximately 75 percent of the total population in 
need of humanitarian assistance.  Middle Shabelle, 
Mudug, Galgadud, and Hiran regions represent the 
largest concentrations of affected populations. 
However, FSNAU notes the presence of deteriorating food 
security and nutrition conditions among pastoral and 
agro-pastoral communities in northern areas, as well. 
 
¶4.  In the context of escalating insecurity and civil 
conflict, FSNAU also highlights the potential for a 
further deterioration in humanitarian conditions and 
increased impediments and access restrictions 
confronting response efforts in the coming months. 
 
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AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY 
----------------------------- 
 
¶5.  Despite a normal gu season harvest in most southern 
agricultural areas, results of the 2009 post gu 
assessment indicate deteriorating food security 
conditions throughout Somalia.  According to the USAID- 
supported Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS 
NET), poor or failed April to June gu rains in 70 
percent of the country, combined with previous rain 
failure, have led to deteriorating food security and 
intensifying drought conditions in Hiran, Galgadud, 
Nugal, Sool, Sanaag, Togdheer, and Mudug regions.  In 
addition, FEWS NET reports that insecurity along the 
road linking southern and central regions is expected 
to hamper cereal flows from southern regions to cereal- 
deficient areas in central and northern Somalia. 
 
¶6.  In addition, FSNAU reported poor gu rains in parts 
of Lower Juba Region, as well as northern Gedo and 
Bakool regions.  FSNAU projects a 70 percent decline in 
crop production below the five-year average in the 
northern regions of Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, and 
Togdheer.  In northern pastoral areas, humanitarian 
agencies have also expressed concern regarding 
deteriorating livestock conditions and milk production 
due to significant water and pasture shortages. 
 
¶7.  High prices also continue to negatively affect food 
access and increase food insecurity throughout Somalia. 
Although FSNAU reported local cereal prices 40 to 60 
percent lower in June than the same time period in 2008 
in southern regions of Somalia, prices remain 
significantly above long-term averages.  FSNAU notes 
that the positive impact of declining food prices and 
improving labor opportunities have been undermined by 
reduced remittance flows associated with the global 
economic downturn. 
 
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HEALTH AND NUTRITION 
-------------------- 
 
¶8.  Findings from 33 recent FSNAU nutritional surveys 
conducted as part of the 2009 Somalia post gu seasonal 
assessment confirm critical malnutrition conditions in 
central and southern Somalia, as well as parts of 
northwest and northeast regions.  According to FSNAU, 
approximately one in five children is acutely 
malnourished and one in 20 is severely malnourished in 
Somalia, with a national median global acute 
malnutrition rate of 19 percent, significantly above 
the U.N. World Health Organization (WHO) emergency 
threshold of 15 percent.  Currently, FSNAU estimates 
that 285,000 children under the age of five in Somalia 
are acutely malnourished, including 70,000 severely 
malnourished children requiring nutrition 
interventions. 
 
¶9.  FSNAU identified high morbidity, disease outbreaks, 
limited access to basic services, and poor child care 
practices as major contributing factors to elevated 
malnutrition conditions.  Inadequate water and 
sanitation services represent a significant underlying 
cause of increased disease outbreaks and malnutrition. 
According to FSNAU, only an estimated 11.3 percent of 
the rural population has access to adequate levels of 
safe water and 12.6 percent has access to safe 
sanitation facilities, resulting in widespread 
prevalence of diarrhea in young children. 
 
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POPULATION DISPLACEMENT 
----------------------- 
 
¶10.  Since an escalation in renewed conflict beginning 
in early May, fighting has displaced more than 250,000 
individuals as of August 21, according to the Office of 
the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).  Recent 
gu assessment results report a revised IDP displacement 
total of approximately 1.3 million individuals since 
February 2007, in addition to an estimated 275,000 
longer-term IDPs. 
 
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SECURITY AND ACCESS 
------------------- 
 
¶11.  Conflict and increased attacks targeting aid 
agencies have led to temporary suspensions in 
activities and diminishing access, hindering the 
delivery of humanitarian assistance to IDPs and 
conflict-affected populations.  According to the U.N., 
as of August 19, assailants had killed 42 aid workers 
and abducted 33 others in Somalia since January 2008. 
In addition, an increase in armed militia group attacks 
against UN and NGO compounds in recent months has 
resulted in the seizure of humanitarian assets and 
relocation of aid staff.  The volatile and fluid 
environment of southern and central Somalia continues 
to restrict humanitarian access and undermine response 
efforts. 
 
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Potential Flooding 
------------------ 
 
¶12.  FEWS NET reports an increased likelihood of near 
to above-normal rainfall for most of Somalia during the 
next October to December deyr rains positively 
impacting agriculture and food security but also 
potentially resulting in flooding, reduced access, and 
increased incidences of human and livestock water- 
related diseases, including Rift Valley Fever, peste 
des petits ruminants (PPR), and cholera.  In addition, 
heavy rains would exacerbate poor shelter conditions 
among IDPs. 
 
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DISASTER REDECLARATION 
---------------------- 
 
¶13.  As a result of the current and projected 
humanitarian needs in Somalia, I declare that a complex 
humanitarian emergency continues to exist due to 
ongoing insecurity and civil conflict, inter-clan 
fighting, disease outbreaks, population displacement, 
flooding potential, food insecurity, and livelihood 
deterioration.  The situation exceeds the capacity of 
the TFG and local authorities to effectively respond. 
It is in the interest of the USG to provide 
humanitarian assistance and the Somali people will 
accept continued USG support.  Therefore, activities 
that address urgent humanitarian needs and seek to 
reduce the risk and strengthen the resilience of 
vulnerable populations should be eligible for USG 
disaster funding in FY 2010. 
 
RANNEBERGER