VZCZCXRO8523
PP RUEHAST RUEHCI RUEHDBU RUEHLH RUEHNEH RUEHPW
DE RUEHBI #0406/01 2961653
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 231653Z OCT 09
FM AMCONSUL MUMBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7506
INFO RUCNCLS/ALL SOUTH AND CENTRAL ASIA COLLECTIVE
RUEHBI/AMCONSUL MUMBAI PRIORITY 2736
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 8728
RUEHCI/AMCONSUL KOLKATA PRIORITY 1925
RUEHCG/AMCONSUL CHENNAI PRIORITY 2137
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 MUMBAI 000406 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV IN
SUBJECT: CONGRESS-LED COALITION WINS AGAIN IN MAHARASHTRA, BUT 
POLITICAL WINDS ARE SHIFTING 
 
REF: A) MUMBAI 397; B) MUMBAI 382; C) MUMBAI 369; D) MUMBAI 364 
 
MUMBAI 00000406  001.2 OF 004 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  The Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) 
Democratic Front (DF) alliance returned to power a third time, 
reaching the half-way mark in a 288 member house.  The Congress 
emerged clearly as the strongest party in the state parliament, 
continuing to ride the wave of national pro-Congress sentiment. 
The party will now have a much freer hand in choosing the Chief 
Minister and key portfolios in the coalition's next iteration. 
The other three major parties in the state - the NCP, the Shiv 
Sena, and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) -- all suffered an 
erosion of their 2004 tallies.  Without a doubt, the inadvertent 
architect of the DF win was the emergent Maharashtra Navnirman 
Sena (MNS).  The MNS won only 13 seats, but caused the defeat of 
Shiv Sena-BJP alliance candidates in nearly 40 seats throughout 
the state.  The Shiv Sena and BJP are both looking for 
explanations for their third straight loss, as the parties 
expected to capitalize on significant anti-incumbency 
sentiments.  While regrouping, the Sena and the BJP will have to 
re-evaluate the power equations within the coalition, and 
attempt to address the MNS challenge.  Going forward, observers 
hope that the strong Congress hand in the coalition will 
minimize the politicking and poor governance of the previous two 
DF governments.  End Summary. 
 
 
 
Contours of a Win: Will Governance Improve With a Stronger 
Congress 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----------- 
 
 
 
¶2. (SBU) Maharashtra voters have again chosen the 
Congress-Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) coalition, the 
Democratic Front (DF),for another term, giving the Congress 
Party a healthy mandate.  Of the state's 288 assembly seats, the 
DF won 144, or exactly half of the seats, and expects to gain 
more as party rebels who ran and won as independents return to 
the fold.  With 82 seats to the NCP's 62, the Congress is now 
the unquestioned leader of the coalition, and will likely regain 
many of the most important state ministerial portfolios, such as 
Home and Finance, which it ceded to the NCP in the previous two 
governments.  In the 2004 elections, the Congress won 69 seats 
to the NCP's 71, and intra-coalition politicking took the place 
of governance, as ministers and party members fought over the 
spoils of office.  With a stronger hand for the Congress, it is 
hoped that its leaders will prove more efficient and effective 
leadership, and will be less beholden to the whims of smaller 
parties and factions. 
 
 
 
¶3. (SBU)  The Shiv Sena-Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) coalition 
lost considerable ground in the state race.  The BJP lost ten 
(from 56 to 46), and the Shiv Sena 18 (from 62 to 44), making 
the BJP the senior coalition partner.  Raj Thackeray's 
Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) won 13 seats, six of them in 
Mumbai, leaving the party as the second most powerful in the 
city.  The vote share of all four major parties decreased in the 
election, making way for the MNS which drew 5.7 percent of the 
state-wide vote.  While it is still not a major force in the 
state assembly with 13 seats, the MNS directly caused the defeat 
of Shiv Sena or BJP candidates in 11 constituencies in Mumbai, 
and in nearly 30 constituencies in Pune, Thane, and Nasik, 
throwing the election to DF candidates. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Current Chief Minister Ashok Chavan took credit for 
the Congress' strong showing, arguing that the DF's development 
plans appealed to voters.  Most voters, however, would disagree, 
as the DF's performance was widely considered to have been 
dismal; indeed, 11 incumbent state ministers lost their seats. 
Here again, the Congress was helped by the same trends that 
aided its victory in the national elections in May - strong 
support for the national Congress government in New Delhi, the 
declining Shiv Sena-BJP coalition, and the disruptive effect of 
the new MNS.  In the race for CM, the party could stick with the 
more youthful Ashok Chavan, who replaced former CM Vilasrao 
Deshmukh after the Mumbai attacks in December 2008, instead of 
other old party stalwarts, such as former CM and current Union 
Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, and a former Shiv Sena CM, 
Narayan Rane, now with Congress.  However, some have speculated 
that a dark horse candidate, Dalit Rohidas Patil, could also be 
the choice of Congress leaders in Delhi.  Either way, with this 
 
MUMBAI 00000406  002.2 OF 004 
 
 
comfortable victory, the Congress will not need a well-heeled 
coalition manager, such as Deshmukh. 
 
 
 
Shiv Sena and BJP: Introspection, Consolidation Time 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------- 
 
 
 
¶5. (SBU) BJP leaders were quick to blame the MNS for their 
defeats in many races, especially in major urban centers.  The 
Shiv Sena-BJP coalition had hoped to capitalize on 
anti-incumbency in the state, though failed to find a single 
issue -- among many potential ones -- on which to capitalize, 
and are genuinely befuddled by the verdict of voters.  (Note:  A 
Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh leader told Congenoffs that their 
internal pre-election survey of Maharashtra constituencies 
showed that 57 percent of voters wanted "change" in government. 
End Note.)  Observers feel that this had more to do with the 
lack of leadership within the coalition rather than a lack of 
issues; infighting between BJP state President Nitin Gadkari and 
national BJP leader from Maharashtra Gopinath Munde did the 
party no favors.  Hoping to deflect blame, Gadkari pointed out 
that the party did better in rural areas of the state, where 
agricultural underdevelopment and farmer suicides were most 
prevalent, though the party lost seats in every area of 
Maharashtra, except for coastal and western Maharashtra. 
 
 
 
¶6. (SBU) The Sena's performance was worse than observers 
expected.  While Shiv Sena leader Uddhav Thackeray has not given 
an official comment about the verdict yet, it is clear that 
they've lost their commanding base in the Mumbai to the MNS, and 
have been severely dented elsewhere in the state.  Most blame 
party president Uddhav Thackeray's leadership for the debacle. 
Having assumed control from his ailing father, Balasaheb 
Thackeray, Uddhav's unassuming leadership has been seen as 
professional by some, and as un-charismatic and uninspiring by 
others; either way, he has been unable to claim the kinds of 
loyalties and support that his father once enjoyed.  However, 
noted political scientist Suhas Palshikar told Congenoffs that 
Uddhav has a long term vision for his party, and is willing to 
accept a short term defeat to re-orient and re-shape the party 
for longer term success. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (SBU) The verdict will also shift the balance of power 
between the two parties.  For the first time in the over 20 
years of their alliance, the BJP has won more seats than the 
Shiv Sena.  According to their pre-agreed formula, the post of 
"Leader of the Opposition" should now go to the BJP. 
Reportedly, Gadkari and Gopinath Munde met with the Thackerays 
to press their case.  However, Uddhav is not likely to honor 
this agreement:  although the BJP has a slightly larger number 
of MLAs, the Shiv Sena has the bulk of the senior leaders in the 
coalition who would not wish to serve under the leadership of a 
more junior, less-experienced BJP legislator.  (Note:  Neither 
Munde nor Gadkari are MLAs. End Note.) 
 
 
 
NCP Accepts Role as Second Fiddle Player 
 
---------------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶8. (SBU) The NCP did better than pundits and pollsters 
predicted.  Moreover, eight NCP rebels - NCP members who had to 
cede the official seat to a Congress candidate -- won against 
Congress candidates as independents.  Most are from Western 
Maharashtra, and close to regional NCP leader Ajit Pawar, NCP 
leader and Union Agricultural Minister Sharad Pawar's nephew. 
It is widely believed that these rebels will be welcomed back 
into the party, to buttress the party's strength within the DF 
coalition.  Bowing to the new power formulation in the state, 
Pawar acknowledged publicly that choosing the CM was the 
Congress' prerogative and that allocating the ministries would 
be handled amicably. 
 
 
 
 
MUMBAI 00000406  003.2 OF 004 
 
 
The Biggest Winner:  Raj Thackeray 
 
----------------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶9. (SBU) The most significant development in the state elections 
is the arrival of Raj Thackeray's MNS.  Raj Thackeray walked out 
of the Shiv Sena in November 2005, and floated his own party in 
March 2006.  After securing a few seats in city government 
elections in 2007 in Mumbai, Nasik, and Pune, Raj quickly became 
a national figure by opposing north Indian migrants in 
Maharashtra, and claiming to be the true representative of 
Marathi speakers in the state.  While his tactical use of 
violence turned off many in cosmopolitan Mumbai and elsewhere in 
India, he was successful at tapping into latent Marathi 
regionalism, especially in urban areas.  In the May 2009 
national parliamentary election, the MNS captured 21 percent of 
the vote in Mumbai, causing the defeat of Shiv Sena-BJP alliance 
candidates in all six parliamentary seats in Mumbai.  While his 
role as a spoiler was recognized, many commentators still 
questioned his ability to rise above political stunts and 
rhetoric and win political power. 
 
 
 
¶10.  (SBU) Belying these conjectures, the MNS attracted an 
important share of the youth and women vote in urban areas, 
filling the desire for fresh faces and new issues.  He won 13 
seats in Mumbai, Thane, Nashik and rural seats in Kalyan and 
Pune.  MNS registered one win in distant Marathwada 
(south-central Maharashtra) too.  The MNS caused the defeat of 
nearly 40 Sena-BJP candidates in Mumbai, Pune, Nasik, and Thane 
districts, by splitting the Marathi vote between Sena and MNS, 
or by pushing the Hindi-speaking migrant vote to the Congress. 
As Uddhav Thackeray bitterly commented throughout the campaign, 
"Raj is working with the single minded objective of finishing 
the Shiv Sena."  The MNS has won six seats in Mumbai city, 
compared to the Shiv Sena's four, despite the Shiv Sena having 
controlled the Mumbai city government for over twenty-five 
years. 
 
 
 
¶11.  (SBU) On his party's performance, Raj told the media, "With 
my 13 members, I will show Maharashtra what an effective 
opposition can do."  In one line, Raj belittled the Sena and 
BJP's performance as opposition, a continual theme during his 
campaign.  Overall, no one knows what kind of party the MNS will 
be in power.  Other than a few vague nods to development, 
employment and Marathi pride, it is not clear what the party 
stands for, and how it can constructively contribute to the 
problems faced by the state.  His candidates were an unusual 
combination of thugs and educated professionals, with many fresh 
faces among them, and it is hard to predict how they will 
operate together as legislators.  Moreover, it is an open secret 
that the Congress has often provided support to the MNS 
candidates on a constituency-by-constituency basis, knowing the 
damage the party will do to Shiv Sena.  Will the MNS now turn on 
the Congress, and confront it in the assembly?  Or will Raj seek 
to continue the long-standing family feud that has characterized 
much of the political rhetoric on the campaign trail?  This will 
bear watching. 
 
 
 
¶12.  (SBU)  Comment:  The strong mandate for the Congress will 
likely lead to the re-appointment of Ashok Chavan as CM.  Though 
initially considered as a stop-gap arrangement until the state 
elections, Chavan presided over two successful campaigns.  For 
most of this time, according to local businessmen, he worked to 
re-orient the lines of payments away from his predecessor into 
his own coffers.  Due to coalition politics, this state has been 
governed by its strong bureaucracy, though many believe it is 
now running on fumes.  Now, it is hoped that he - or whoever 
takes the top spot - will have some mandate to govern.  The 
chastened NCP will now focus on party rebuilding and absorbing 
rebels to buttress the numbers.  BJP leaders Gadkari and Munde, 
who had seemed to bury their hatchet for the duration of the 
campaign, are likely to return to their internecine fights.  The 
Shiv Sena has difficult choices ahead:  Uddhav can continue to 
blame Raj for his party's grass-roots failures, or try to renew 
the party organization, inducting fresh faces rather than 
relying on trusted old guard.  Raj Thackerary and his MNS are 
the newest players, and the most interesting to watch.  If he 
can bring about cohesion and coherence to his motley thirteen, 
 
MUMBAI 00000406  004.2 OF 004 
 
 
and serve as a pro-development force, then he could do justice 
to his party's name, the Army to Rebuild Maharashtra.  Doing so 
would be quite a leap from his tough, rabble-rousing, political 
origins.  End comment. 
FOLMSBEE