VZCZCXYZ0000
OO RUEHWEB

DE RUEHHE #0378/01 2881311
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 151311Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY HELSINKI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5209
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 0101
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM PRIORITY 8680
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0980
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RUFGNOA/USCINCEUR VAIHINGEN GE PRIORITY
RUCJACC/USCINCCENT MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L HELSINKI 000378 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2019 
TAGS: AF FI MOPS PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: FINNISH COMMITMENT TO AFGHANISTAN STEADY BUT 
ELECTION SURGE COMING HOME 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Bruce J. Oreck for Reasons 1.4(b) and (d) 
 
 ¶1. (C) SUMMARY:  The commitment of Finnish forces to ISAF 
continues to be a matter of public debate in Helsinki.  All 
political parties (with the exception of the opposition Left 
Alliance) reiterated their support for Finland's current 
policy regarding Afghanistan including maintaining its 
participation in ISAF.  The government's commitments were 
affirmed by CHOD Puheloinen and MOD DG for Policy Jarvenpaa 
in separate meetings with the Ambassador in the last week, 
though each made clear that Finland's "election surge" of 
forces would be withdrawn by October 28.  While not 
optimistic about the prospects of stabilizing Afghanistan, 
around half of Finns polled continue to support Finland's 
current level of involvement there with around 35-40% 
favoring a withdrawal.  Recent casualties among Finnish 
troops have not triggered a change in the public discussion. 
END SUMMARY. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
BROAD SUPPORT FOR GOF POLICY IN PARLIAMENT 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) On October 1 Parliament held a general debate on 
Afghanistan in which some 30 MPs participated.  Finland's 
presence there was supported across the spectrum of parties 
with the exception of the Left Alliance, although support 
within the Social Democratic Party (SDP) was weaker than in 
the governing parties.  SDP leader Jutta Urpilainen, however, 
argued in favor of maintaining Finland's commitment there in 
order to maintain a strong relationship with the U.S. 
Foreign Minister Stubb emphasized that no new troops were 
being asked to deploy and that no date of withdrawal should 
be set in advance.  Defense Minister Hakamies added that 
there was no military solution and that political dialogue 
was necessary.  NOTE: Hakamies has continued to emphasize the 
need for dialogue with what he terms "moderate Taliban" since 
his return from the U.S. in September; he went so far as to 
publicly suggest that the EU nominate Green Party MP Pekka 
Haavisto as a mediator to conduct such a dialogue.  Embassy 
sources indicate that this idea has not been discussed inside 
the GOF and we do not believe that it represents government 
policy.  END NOTE.  The idea of increasing Finland's troop 
presence and changing the mission to one allowing offensive 
action was debated but rejected by most participants.  The 
idea of maintaining or increasing Finland's focus on 
development and humanitarian aid in Afghanistan in the long 
term drew broad support.  This debate took place just before 
four Finnish soldiers serving in ISAF were injured by a 
roadside bomb, two of them seriously enough to be evacuated 
back to Helsinki.  Reaction to the casualties in the media 
has been very muted and the topic does not appear to have 
affected the public debate on the issue. 
 
--------------------------------------------- - 
ELECTION SUPPORT FORCES WITHDRAWING OCTOBER 28 
--------------------------------------------- - 
¶3. (C) In a private meeting with the Ambassador on October 8, 
MOD Director General for Policy Dr. Pauli Jarvenpaa indicated 
a decision would be taken by the Finnish government to 
redeploy Finland's Election Support Force (ESF) troops on 
schedule in late October.  He believed this would occur 
regardless of whether questions over the validity of the 
election were resolved or not.  In a meeting with the 
Ambassador on October 13, GEN Ari Puheloinen, the FDF Chief 
of Defence confirmed that the ESF would be redeployed as 
planned on 28 October.  GEN Puheloinen cited several reasons 
for this redeployment. FDF personnel deployed to support 
crisis management operations must volunteer and are given a 
specific time by contract for their deployment.  These 
contracts for ESF personnel are complete at the end of 
October.  There is no political will (and probably no legal 
standing) to involuntarily extend members of the ESF, and 
indications are that a majority of ESF members would not 
volunteer to extend their contract.  The lead forces in the 
Finnish area of operation are the Swedes, and they are 
preparing to conduct a planned rotation.  During this 
rotation, according to Puheloinen, there would not be 
sufficient quarters to support the ESF if they stayed. 
Lastly, available crisis management funds are limited and an 
extension of the ESF for some indefinite period is not in the 
budget.  NOTE: DG Jarvenpaa specifically stated that funding 
was not/not a reason for the redeployment.  END NOTE. 
 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
POLLING SHOWS FINNS STEADY BUT NOT OPTIMISTIC 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶4. (U) According to a poll published by Helsingin Sanomat on 
September 30, 49% of Finns favor Finland's participation in 
crisis management operations in Afghanistan, 35% would 
withdraw Finnish troops, and 16% have no opinion.  65% 
believe Afghanistan is unlikely or highly unlikely to achieve 
democracy or protection of human rights.  An MTV3 poll on 
September 24 reported that 66% of Finns do not believe that 
ISAF will be able to stabilize Afghanistan while 22% are 
confident that it could.  44% favored Finnish participation 
at current troop levels and 40% favored a total withdrawal. 
ORECK