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DE RUEHDU #0100/01 2881324
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 151324Z OCT 09
FM AMCONSUL DURBAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 1511
INFO RUCNSAD/SADC COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDU/AMCONSUL DURBAN 0889

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DURBAN 000100 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
FOR AF/S, INR 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV SF
SUBJECT: INKATHA FREEDOM PARTY YOUTH DEMAND LEADERSHIP CHANGE 
 
REF: DURBAN: 50 
 
DURBAN 00000100  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary.  Members of the Inkatha Freedom Party Youth 
Brigade (IFPYB) aggrieved by the recent expulsion of their 
leaders staged several demonstrations outside the party's 
headquarters in Durban.  Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) leaders 
have called for order and condemned IFPYB calls for party leader 
Prince Mangosuthu Buthelezi to step down.  His leadership may be 
coming to an end, regardless.  End Summary. 
 
Call for New Leadership 
 
¶2. (U)  In the 2009 election, the IFP won only 22.4 percent of 
the votes in its former stronghold of KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) 
(Reftel).  The IFPYB in KZN blamed party leaders for the IFP's 
dismal performance at the polls and immediately called for the 
removal of current leaders, including Buthelezi.  On May 17, the 
IFP KZN Executive Committee released a press statement accusing 
certain IFPYB members of `failing to present their case to the 
IFP National Council and of inciting an illegal demonstration 
outside of the party's head office in Ulundi.'  As a result of 
this `illegal' action, the IFP Executive Committee expelled from 
the KZN Provincial Executive Committee of the IFPYB its 
Provincial Chairperson, Deputy Provincial Chairperson, Deputy 
Provincial Secretary, Provincial Treasurer, Deputy Provincial 
Treasurer, Provincial Publicity Secretary, and Deputy Provincial 
Publicity Secretary.  Expelled KZN Provincial Chairperson 
Skhumbuzo Khanyeza insisted to local media that their grievances 
with the IFP were supported by the majority of IFPYB members and 
prominent party leaders as well. 
 
¶3. (U)  On August 17, about 100 members of the IFPYB 
demonstrated outside the party's head office in Durban demanding 
that their leaders be reinstated and that IFP leadership be 
changed.    Demonstrators carried posters accusing IFP General 
Secretary Musa Zondi and IFP National Organizer Albert Mncwango 
of being behind a plot to expel IFPYB leaders.  They also 
carried posters calling for Prince Buthelezi to step down as 
party leader.  Demonstrators heckled Zondi when he tried to 
address them. 
 
 
¶4. (SBU)  On August 31, Pol/Econ Officer witnessed from his 
31st-floor office window a clash between IFPYB supporters of 
Zondi and those of IFP National Chairperson Zanele 
KaMagwaza-Msibi for the position of party president taking place 
outside of IFP's Durban head office.  Police eventually used 
rubber bullets to disperse the vociferous yet peaceful crowds. 
Zondi told Pol/Econ Assistant that the IFP is `disturbed' by the 
actions of some of its IFPYB members and is calling for calm. 
In a public statement, Zondi distanced himself and 
KaMagwaza-Msibi from the actions of the youth and asked that 
they stop using his and KaMagwaza-Msibi's name to advance their 
political interests - an assertion that was repeated at a press 
conference by both on October 8.  On September 2, IFPYB National 
Chairperson Patricia Lebenya-Ntazi issued a press statement 
condemning the anti-Buthelezi statements that were made during 
the August protest.   `Prince Buthelezi was democratically 
elected in 2004 as President of the party for a full five year 
term, a mandate which has not yet expired,' she said. 
 
Buthelezi Undecided 
 
¶5. (SBU) Buthelezi is shocked by the recent actions of members 
of the IFPYB, according to independent political analyst Protas 
Madlala.  Addressing students at Mangosuthu University of 
Technology (MUT), the Prince castigated those causing rifts in 
the party and said they do not respect the IFP and its 
constitution.  He added that it was up to MUT students to 
protect and defend his legacy.  Madlala argues that Buthelezi is 
still accessing his options but is likely to fight to keep his 
position.   When asked by local media if he planned to step down 
as IFP president, the lusty 83-year-old retorted, `When you look 
at me, do I look like I'm ready for the rocking chair?' 
 
IFP Elections and the Next Party Leader 
 
¶6. (SBU)  The current IFP leadership's term of service expired 
at the end of September 2009.  However, according to the IFP 
constitution, leaders must remain in office until a general 
conference is held and new leaders elected.   Although a date 
has not been set, Lebenya-Ntazi told Pol/Econ officer on 
September 14 that leaders plan to hold elections before the end 
of the year.  Lebenya-Ntanzi subsequently told Pol/Econ 
Assistant that the conference is likely to be held in January 
¶2010.  Expelled youth leader Irvin Barnes has accused the 
current leadership of trying to cling to power by postponing the 
General Conference.   Secretary General Zondi denied these 
 
DURBAN 00000100  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
allegations and told local media that the delay is a result of 
not all party branches being ready for the conference. 
 
¶7. (SBU) KaMagwaza-Msibi and Zondi are the two most likely IFP 
leaders to succeed Buthelezi.  They both, however, continue to 
distance themselves from IPF supporters who have called for 
their election as the next party president.  Indeed, when asked 
by local media on October 8 whether they would run against the 
Prince at the next IFP National Conference, both KaMagwaza-Msibi 
and Zondi said, `No.' 
 
¶8. (SBU) KaMagwaza-Msibi is a strong contender and is supported 
by many IFPYB members and the IFP Women's Brigade.  She has a 
track record of service delivery as a mayor of a large rural 
district where the IFP continues to get more than 90% electoral 
support.  She showed herself during the campaign to be a skilled 
and influential politician and tireless champion of the IFP. 
However, she will face strong objections from the key party 
constituency, the traditional leaders and conservatives who will 
have difficulty being led by a woman.  KaMagwaza-Msibi also 
appears to have lost the support of Buthelezi because of rumors 
that she is behind the youth revolt in the party. 
 
¶9. (SBU) Zondi also enjoys support from members of the IFPYB and 
appears to still have the ear of Buthelezi.  Zondi as the 
Secretary General of the party has control over local party 
structures and this might work in his favor.   However, he is 
seen by many IFP members as too rooted in the past; too 
intellectual; and as having no vision for the party's future. 
 
 
Comment 
 
¶11.  (SBU) The IFP is facing its first internal revolt since its 
inception in 1975.  Buthelezi's leadership is being challenged 
openly for the first time as well.  Contacts of Pol/Econ 
Assistant indicate that there is growing mistrust among IFP 
leaders especially between Buthelezi and KaMagwaza-Msibi and 
between Zondi and KaMagwaza-Msibi.  While Buthelezi has always 
managed to retain his position in the party without difficulty, 
it seems this time around it is going to be a hard battle 
between the conservatives and the reformists in the party.  The 
writing on the wall is clear, and Buthelezi may decide to avoid 
a humiliating loss and not stand for office.  It still remains 
unclear, however, who the Prince would support if he were to 
step aside.  His choice will likely determine the future of his 
beloved party - and his legacy. 
DERDERIANJ