VZCZCXRO8958
RR RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHDK #1245 2741127
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 011127Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY DAKAR
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3141
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE

UNCLAS DAKAR 001245 
 
SIPDIS 
SENSITIVE 
 
DEPT FOR AF/W, AF/RSA, DRL AND INR/AA 
PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINS PINR KDEM SG
SUBJECT: Senegal-President Wade announces he will run for a third 
term 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary: In a September 18, 2009 interview he gave to VOA's 
French to Africa service, Senegalese President Abdoulaye Wade 
announced that he was going to run for a third term in office. 
Immediately, opposition leaders derided the decision saying that 
this was just a ploy by the President to sideline the succession 
question until he could better position his son, Karim Wade to 
replace him. End Summary. 
 
Yes he Can 
---------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) Under Senegal's former constitution there were no term 
limits for the office of president.  Wade was elected in 2000 under 
that constitution.  In 2001, Senegal adopted a new constitution 
which introduced a limit of two consecutive terms for the presidency 
and reduced the length of the mandate to five years.  However, this 
was not applied retroactively to Wade's first term because he was 
elected before the new constitution came into force.  For that 
reason, his first term was seven years and the two consecutive term 
limit commenced with his second term, which began in 2007.  However, 
in a subsequent amendment the Senegalese National Assembly, at the 
behest of President Wade, extended the term of office back to seven 
years.  This change was not applied retroactively to Wade's current 
term, which will be for five years and end in 2012.  So, barring 
another change, the next president will be elected for seven years. 
 
More Changes Afoot? 
------------------- 
 
¶3. (SBU) Another announcement that has the opposition up in arms is 
the as yet unanswered rumor that the National Assembly is preparing 
another constitutional amendment to change the election of president 
from two rounds to a first-past-the-post system.  President Wade has 
so far demurred and is gauging public sentiment as he knows full 
well that, under the current system, it is unlikely that either he 
or his chosen heir could win the necessary 50 percent in order to 
avert the need for a second round during the presidential elections 
slated for 2012.  However, should the constitution be amended, there 
is a fair chance that a Democratic Party of Senegal (PDS) candidate 
could win in 2012, especially since the opposition remains 
hopelessly divided, despite claims to the contrary.  On Sunday, 
September 27, PDS Deputy Amadou Gallo Ndiaye went as far as to tell 
a gathering of local party leaders in the northern city of Louga 
that the matter had already been taken care of, as the Assembly had 
already drafted a law to change the constitution.  "It is official 
the Presidential election will be done in one round," he stated 
boldly.  In response, Ousmane Tanor Dieng, the leader of the 
Socialist Party, said, "This would be the straw that breaks the 
camel's back."  He characterized the proposition as another example 
of the backsliding of Senegal's democracy, accusing Wade of trying 
to rig his re-election. 
 
 
Why the Announcement? 
--------------------- 
¶4. (SBU) Ever since he won re-election in 2007, President Wade has 
had to face continual calls to reveal who his chosen successor will 
be.  At the same time, his PDS has continued its inexorable 
disintegration as leading party members such as former Prime 
Ministers Macky Sall and Idrissa Seck were either ousted or left in 
disgust at his autocratic and increasingly erratic leadership style. 
 That being said Wade remains the only constant in the maelstrom of 
Machiavellian political intrigue that surrounds him.  As long as he 
remains in full control of the State's vast patronage apparatus he 
will be able to keep his satraps in line until such a time he either 
revamps the PDS or announces a successor. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶5. (SBU) Rumors of changes to the electoral code in what is an 
obvious ploy that favors the PDS are disconcerting.  What's worse is 
that, with full control of the National Assembly and a carefully 
massaged message that changes to the electoral code make fiscal 
sense, means that Wade's latest maneuvers might actually be enough 
to persuade the Senegalese electorate that the change is warranted. 
Meanwhile, the President's announcement that he will run for a third 
term has opinion makers divided between whether or not he is doing 
it to calm the political scene down or if he is actually serious. 
In any event, President Wade continues to exhibit a stubborn 
resistance to relaxing his seeming stranglehold on the political 
process.  End Comment. 
 
SMITH