VZCZCXYZ0859
PP RUEHWEB

DE RUEHCP #0433/01 2790943
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 060943Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY COPENHAGEN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5215
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/SECNAV WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO BRUSSELS BE 1126

UNCLAS COPENHAGEN 000433 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
STATE FOR OES, EUR/NB 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: ECIN ECON EFIS EWWT MARR PGOV PREL SENV DA GL
SUBJECT: "HIGH NORTH" CONFERENCE DEBATES GREENLAND'S ROLE 
IN A CHANGING ARCTIC 
 
(U) SENSITIVE BT UNCLASSIFIED; PROTECT ACCORDINGLY.  NOT FOR 
INERNET DISTRIBUTION. 
 
¶1.  (SBU) Summary: The Danih Institute for Military Studies 
sponsored a confrence on Arctic security September 23. 
Denmark mintains sovereignty over Greenland, but granted it 
increased autonomy as of June 2009.  Participant vigorously 
debated Greenland's changing role asthe Arctic attracts 
increasing interest due to it untapped natural resources, 
increasing use as sa lanes, and the impact a growing Arctic 
economy could have on the proposed climate change agreement. 
One Greenlandic panelist suggested that a climate change 
agreement could be seen as a subtle form of colonialism which 
could prevent Greenland from realizing its economic and 
political potential.  Another panelist, Danish Fleet Admiral 
Niels Christian Vang, stated that Danish fleet assets may 
well deploy further to the north as trade patterns shift, 
particularly if Greenland's self-rule government is able to 
use some of its expected new revenues to develop 
search-and-rescue (SAR) and other maritime capabilities 
around southern Greenland.  A third speaker produced numerous 
comments with his slightly tongue-in-cheek paper entitled, 
"The 51st State? Greenland between Danish and American 
Ambitions in the Arctic."  End summary. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
(SBU) Independence desired....if it doesn't cost too much 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶2.  (SBU)  The conference kicked into high gear with an 
in-your-face presentation by Prof. Pia Vedel Ankersen, 
University of Greenland, entitled "Greenlandic Politics: 
Communitarian Counter Revolution," which posited that for 
reasons of cultural identity and historical experience, the 
majority of the population of Greenland strongly desires more 
autonomy from Denmark than the June 2009 Self-Government 
Agreement provides.  The professor supported her contention 
with a recent survey that purportedly showed 80 percent of 
Greenlanders desire complete independence from their mother 
country within 20 years.  However, while 38 percent desired 
sovereignty "as soon as possible," a surprising 58 percent 
admitted that independence was not desirable if it meant a 
reduced standard of living.  At present, Denmark's 3.12 
billion kroner (approx. $620 million) annual block grant 
accounts for roughly 60 percent of Greenland's budget in an 
economy totaling 10.6 billion kroner. 
 
¶3.  (SBU)  Ankersen also contended that several independent 
research findings have found a widening gulf between 
generations in Greenland, with younger citizens much more 
energized on the issue of increased autonomy.  Ankersen 
countered suggestions from the audience that perhaps younger 
Greenlanders were simply engaging in idealistic exercises, by 
noting that they show a sound understanding of the 
significant economic challenges that Greenland must resolve 
before further autonomy can be considered.  The Greenlandic 
academic created the strongest reaction by suggesting that 
restrictions on Greenland's economic development as a result 
of a new climate change agreement could be interpreted as a 
subtle means to keep Greenland in its pre-developed state, 
and therefore unable to achieve its eventual goal of 
independence.  As climate change in the Arctic opens up 
access to Greenland's natural resources (inland mineral 
deposits, greater hydroelectric power, and less costly 
offshore oil/gas development), the potential for revenue for 
the island's self-rule government increases.  And this, 
according to Ankersen, may accelerate Greenland's political 
maturation timeline.  The bottom line presented by Ankersen 
was that while progress on autonomy must wait for development 
sufficient to cut the island's dependency on Denmark -- and 
it may be a long wait due to the very low current state of 
economic activity -- real autonomy has become a core belief 
of a new generation of Greenlanders and is unlikely to fade. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
(SBU) While Danish Navy focuses on current issues 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶4.  (SBU)  Following this discussion, Denmark's Fleet Admiral 
Niels Christian Vang discussed territorial security and the 
protection of Greenland's increasingly valuable maritime 
resources.  Referring to the landmark 1933 decision by the 
Permanent Court of International Justice that resolved 
competing claims by Denmark and Norway, Admiral Vang reminded 
his audience that not only did the decision bequeath 
 
sovereignty of the island to Denmark, it also obligated his 
country to patrol and protect Greenland's territorial waters 
-- a responsibility that greatly expanded as the concept of 
the 200 nautical-mile Economic Exclusion Zone was established 
by the 1982 Third UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.  He 
added that larger and larger areas of high-north waters are 
becoming navigable due to climate change, with a concomitant 
increase of demands on Denmark's limited fleet assets. 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Admiral Vang stated that Denmark's recently 
released Five Year Defense Agreement addresses this expanding 
role, specifically that the Danish fleet intends to acquire 
additional high-endurance, ice-capable patrol vessels, as 
well as associated air assets, to increase its maritime 
capability.  Vang pointedly referred to the fact that 
Greenland's still-rich fish stocks are now attracting the 
attention of fishing fleets from areas of the world whose 
traditional fishery grounds have become increasingly 
depleted, particularly from East Asia.  In addition to 
fishery patrols, the Danish Navy will likely soon be asked to 
provide greater services, such as search-and-rescue (SAR) and 
iceberg reporting, to an increasing number of users of 
high-north waters around Greenland -- from transiting 
merchantmen to cruise ships, as well as the crews of oil and 
natural gas platforms expected to be established in the 
not-too-distant future.  Vang and others have previously 
fretted in the Danish and Greenlandic press that Denmark did 
not have sufficient assets to accomplish all the missions, 
particularly SAR in the event of a major civilian maritime 
disaster.  But at this conference, Vang expressed greater 
assurance that Danish naval units could provide the necessary 
coverage given Denmark's recent Five Year Defense Agreement. 
 
¶6.  (SBU)  Although there are many variables in the calculus 
to determine the correct mix of maritime assets required, 
Vang contended that international cooperation, particularly 
among the Arctic nations, is essential to meet expanding 
needs in the most effective and cost-efficient manner.  He 
specifically noted the importance of the U.S. air base at 
Thule as the single most important asset in the developing 
scenario, and said it was essential to keep its capabilities 
undiminished.  He noted that it is farther from Reykjavik to 
Greenland's north coast than from Norway to Gibraltar. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  One final issue the admiral addressed was the 
maritime community's still-elementary knowledge of the 
undersea topography of high-north waters, particularly around 
Greenland, where a maritime mishap would not only heavily tax 
existing SAR capabilities, but depending on the cargo, could 
cause extensive environmental damage.  He presumed the U.S. 
and Russia possess this data, and thought it was time it be 
shared on a broader basis.  Finally, he noted that the North 
Atlantic Coast Guard Forum (established three years ago; its 
next regular meeting is in October) remains the only 
coordination forum in which all five high north littoral 
nations participate.  Vang concluded by urging the assembly 
that the principles of the 2008 Ilulissat Declaration 
(negotiated settlement of disputes; acknowledgment of common 
responsibilities; and cooperation on high-north issues) be 
steadfastly respected, particularly by increasing close 
cooperative engagement. 
 
--------------------------------------- 
(U) Possible Future Paths for Greenland 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Nordic defense expert Professor Clive Archer of 
Manchester University rounded out the conference with a 
slightly sardonic thought game on where Greenland's self-rule 
government may take the island in the coming years.  His main 
thesis was that a Greenland intent on expanding its autonomy 
could proceed in one of three likely directions: 1) place 
greater political distance between it and Denmark, but 
maintain the strategic defense alliance; 2) seek a direct 
strategic defense relationship with the U.S.; or 3) proceed 
in a strictly neutral direction and rely on its presumed 
extensive natural resources to fund its defensive 
requirements.  In brief, the academic argued that despite 
genuine desire for complete independence on the part of an 
increasing number of Greenlanders, option 1 would be the 
likely course of action.  Archer contended that option 2 was 
needlessly provocative -- and he doubted whether the U.S. 
would even be interested.  And option 3 was simply too 
difficult to achieve: the current exceedingly low state of 
Greenland's economic base, even if oil and gas are soon found 
 
in exploitable quantities, as well as its tiny population 
(approx. 56,000), essentially makes this path a pipedream. 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  However, even with this conclusion -- maintaining 
the present relationship with Denmark -- Archer argued that 
Denmark must get used to a new division of responsibilities 
vis-a-vis Greenland.  As Greenland's natural resources 
approach the extraction phase, Denmark must be willing, and 
should want, to cede some control over the protection of 
Greenland's waters.  To counter claims of quasi-colonialism, 
no matter how unfounded, Denmark should enter into a more 
even partnership with Greenland's self-rule government, 
particularly in matters (e.g. maritime patrol/SAR) that the 
Greenlanders themselves may one day have the revenue and 
desire to provide. 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Strong reactions and pointed questions from the 
conference participants, as well as a number of follow-up 
conversations after the event, indicate that many consider 
much of this talk about increased Greenland autonomy to be 
quite a bit above glide slope.  Several participants 
emphasized that Greenland simply has too few people to 
support a viable, independent state.  That said, Greenlandic 
long-term independence aspirations appear genuine. 
FULTON