VZCZCXRO6827
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0160/01 2950923
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 220923Z OCT 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1187
INFO RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1278

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000160 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  10/21/2019 
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM ECON TH
SUBJECT: RED-SHIRTS, YELLOW-SHIRTS CONTINUE DIALOGUE AT A SLOWER 
PACE 
 
REF: A. CHIANG MAI 138 (BEGIN DIALOGUE) 
     ¶B. CHIANG MAI 132 (DOWNPLAY RECONCILIATION CALL) 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000160  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Alex Barrasso, Chief, Pol/Econ, CG Chiang Mai. 
REASON: 1.4 (d) 
-------------------------- 
 
Summary and Comment 
 
-------------------------- 
 
 
 
¶1.  (C) In separate meetings with red-shirt and yellow-shirt 
groups, leaders told CG they want to move ahead with their 
fledgling reconciliation efforts, though they are afraid of a 
backlash from extreme elements on both sides.  Nonetheless, they 
have met repeatedly, established a plan of work, and set goals. 
Meanwhile, the private sector and academic representatives that 
initially called for a reduction in violence for the benefit of 
Chiang Mai's economy are becoming more involved. 
 
 
 
¶2.  (C) Comment: Though it is picking up steam, the dialogue 
process is still fragile, and any number of unfortunate events 
could derail it.  Over the past few days, Rak Chiang Mai 51 
(RCM51) - the pro-Thaksin group with the most violent record - 
has verbally threatened red-shirt leaders participating in the 
reconciliation process via its radio station.  Separately, at a 
two-day seminar organized in Chiang Mai by United Front for 
Democracy Against Dictatorship (UDD) leaders from Bangkok 
attended by approximately 800 red-shirt supporters from the 
north, the UDD leaders intimated they wanted to provoke a 
political showdown in Bangkok.  Continued threats by RCM51 or 
street violence between red-shirts and yellow-shirts could bring 
the process to a screeching halt.  We will continue to emphasize 
the need for political demonstrations to be peaceful, and for 
change to come about in accordance with the rule of law.  End 
Summary and Comment. 
 
 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
Consulate Engages Red-Shirts, Yellow-Shirts 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
 
 
¶3.  (C) As part of Mission Thailand's effort to engage political 
actors on both sides of the spectrum, CG opened separate 
meetings with local red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups with an 
identical message: we recognize that both sides have genuine 
political differences; political demonstrations are normal in a 
democracy, but they must be peaceful and not interfere with the 
functioning of the government; change must take place 
peacefully, be constitutional, and be undertaken in accordance 
with the rule of law.  He added that honest and open dialogue 
are key to a functioning democracy, and expressed the hope that 
red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups could find political space for 
that exchange of views. 
 
 
 
¶4.  (C) Violence serves no one, continued the CG; it only harms 
Thailand's image and damages the economy.  The U.S. will not 
take sides in Thailand's political debate, he added, but we will 
speak out when actions taken by either side threaten democracy. 
CG sited the U.S. response to the 2006 coup, and statements 
condemning the 2008 seizures of Bangkok's airports and 2009 
violence in Pataya as examples. 
 
 
 
¶5.  (C) Leaders of three red-shirt groups told the CG that 
sustainable change can come about in Thailand only when the 
voices of the majority are heard.  On average, only 26 million 
of Thailand's 35 million eligible voters cast ballots, they 
asserted, with roughly 14 million voting for pro-red-shirt 
candidates and some eight million for the Democrat Party, with 
the rest of the vote divided among smaller groups.  Although 
both red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups think they can seize 
power and run the country, neither side can sustain a grip on 
power without partners, they argued.  Hence, if the red-shirts 
want to run Thailand, they need to find like-minded groups with 
which to work.  Both red-shirt and yellow-shirt leaders agreed 
that in order to make tangible progress, both sides need to shed 
their colors. 
 
 
 
¶6.  (C) The red-shirt leaders spoke of creating a "mass party" 
that would not be a Phuea Thai puppet.  We do not want our 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000160  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
members to be political pawns, one exclaimed.  Of the 11 MPs 
that represent Chiang Mai, only one is "acceptable," he added. 
We need to involve the people directly in politics and promote 
candidates who represent them in upcoming elections, he said. 
Another opined that a mass red-shirt party might be able to find 
common ground and work with the New Politics Party, though their 
ideologies are very different. 
 
 
 
¶7.  (C) Both red-shirt and yellow-shirt leaders related that 
they had met twice as a group to agree on goals.  Since our 
meeting with them, the two sides have met a third time.  Though 
they have not resolved their political differences, both sides 
appear to be working towards an arrangement that would allow 
them to peacefully express their views without intimidation by 
the other. 
 
 
 
¶8.  (C) Both groups acknowledged they have undertaken this 
effort mainly to help revive Chiang Mai's economy and prevent a 
welcoming image for tourists.  One yellow-shirt leader expressed 
the hope that through joint public activities and the peaceful 
passing of major upcoming festivals such as Loy Krathong, the 
King's Birthday and Buddhist New Year, both sides could restore 
international confidence in Chiang Mai's ability to play host to 
tourists and show off its traditional culture.  If all goes 
well, he opined, we might be able to have a joint declaration 
renouncing violence by Buddhist New Year (March 2010). 
 
 
 
¶9.  (SBU) Meanwhile, the private sector and academic figures who 
issued the initial call for reconciliation between both sides 
(Ref B) held a news conference on October 21 reaffirming their 
support for efforts on both sides to revive Chiang Mai's economy 
and promote civil society dialogue.  [We'll have a read-out of 
the conference tomorrow and will have something to add to this 
para] 
 
 
 
------------------- 
 
Obstacles Remain 
 
------------------- 
 
 
 
¶10. (SBU) Despite this progress, several recent events have 
highlighted the fragility of the dialogue process.  Threats 
against one red-shirt leader by the radical pro-Thaksin RCM51 
group prompted him to pull out of a planning meeting the two 
sides held on October 16.  His withdrawal prevented both sides 
and business groups such as the Chamber of Commerce and 
Federation of Thai Industries from holding a press conference 
they had planned for October 19.  Meanwhile, in public comments 
on October 20, the RCM51 leader stated that although he welcomed 
efforts to revive Chiang Mai's economy and promote tourism, he 
would not make peace with yellow-shirts or be seen with them in 
public. 
 
 
 
¶11. (SBU) In separate public comments on the same television 
program, a yellow-shirt representative noted her group's desire 
to find political space for both sides to express their views 
peacefully and without fear of intimidation by the other.  Both 
leaders were reserved about the possibility of reconciliation. 
 
 
 
¶12. (C) Meanwhile, UDD leaders from Bangkok told an 800-strong 
crowd at Chiang Mai's sports stadium that they are planning for 
a major rally in Bangkok in the next few weeks to press for new 
elections as soon as possible.  A local red-shirt leader who 
attended the sessions confided that he believes the UDD will try 
to force the governing coalition from power, either by 
instigating red-yellow violence on the streets of Bangkok, 
thereby provoking a military response, or by simply forcing the 
coalition to step down.  Our contact told us that if this 
"showdown" takes place, it could reverse the progress that 
red-shirt and yellow-shirt groups in Chiang Mai have made in 
recent weeks.  He argued at the stadium for a reconsideration of 
the UDD's plan, but his calls were ignored, he said. 
ANDERSON