P 011315Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY BUCHAREST
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9938
INFO EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY

C O N F I D E N T I A L BUCHAREST 000669 
 
 
STATE FOR EUR/CE ASCHEIBE 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2019 
TAGS: PGOV RO
SUBJECT: COALITION COLLAPSES AS PSD MINISTERS RESIGN 
 
REF: BUCHAREST 662 
 
Classified By: DCM Jeri Guthrie-Corn, reasons 1.4 (B) and (D). 
 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY. On October 1 President Traian Basescu 
dismissed Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Dan 
Nica of PSD and appointed Regional Development Minister 
Vasile Blaga of PDL to assume both portfolios. PSD chairman 
Mircea Geoana responded by announcing that all PSD members of 
the PDL/PSD coalition government would resign.  With less 
than two months until the November 22 presidential election, 
PDL leaders are weighing their options for keeping the 
government of PM Boc in place while still supporting 
President Basescu's re-election bid.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (U) On the morning of October 1, President Traian Basescu 
signed the order dismissing Interior Minister and Deputy PM 
Dan Nica of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and replacing 
him on an interim basis with Blaga, who is also Secretary 
General of the Liberal Democratic Party (PDL). The political 
crisis had erupted two days earlier when PM Emil Boc informed 
PSD leaders that he would replace Nica (reftel). 
 
¶3. (U) Basescu,s decision to dismiss Nica followed the 
failure by PSD and PDL to negotiate a mutually acceptable 
compromise on Nica's fate and/or replacement.  As reported 
reftel, Basescu had appealed publicly to Boc to work with 
PSD, going so far as to suggest that Nica be replaced with an 
opposition politician or a neutral technocrat, but PSD 
leaders dismissed these offers as political posturing.  PSD 
chairman Geoana insisted that Boc retract his dismissal of 
Nica or that President Basescu refuse to sign it, accusing 
Basescu of political manipulation.  Late on September 30 
Nica, in his capacity as Deputy PM and the senior PSD member 
of the Cabinet, announced that all PSD ministers would resign 
"within 30 minutes" if his dismissal were actually carried 
out.  Nica later refused Basescu's request that he alone 
resign from the Cabinet as a graceful way of resolving the 
crisis. Once Basescu's chancellery announced that Nica had 
been fired, Geoana hastily called a meeting of the PSD 
leadership just after noon on October 1.  Geoana emerged from 
the meeting to announce to the media that all nine PSD 
cabinet ministers would submit their resignation.  Geoana 
also reiterated his charge that blame for the crisis lay 
entirely with President Basescu,s electoral machinations. 
 
 
NOW WHAT? 
--------- 
¶4. (C) PDL deputy chairman Adrian Videanu later told the 
media that the party is considering all constitutional means 
of keeping the Boc government in place.  There are 
essentially two options: having incumbent PDL ministers 
assume "double duty" and take over the vacant portfolios as 
"interim minister"; or bringing in outside technocrats and/or 
members of the opposition Democratic Union of Hungarians in 
Romania (UDMR). 
 
¶5. (C) We expect  PDL to opt for a one-party "interim" 
cabinet for the time being, as the Constitution allows 
interim ministers to serve for 45 days without Parliamentary 
approval.  Media reports suggest that under this scenario Boc 
himself would assume the Education portfolio, while Defense 
Minister Stanisoara or Justice Minister Predoiu would take 
over Foreign Affairs, Transportation Minister Berceanu would 
cover Agriculture, Finance Minister Pogea would handle Labor, 
and Tourism Minister Udrea would oversee Environment. 
Romanian law gives the Prime Minister 15 days to respond to a 
minister's resignation, after which it takes effect 
automatically if the PM has not yet acted.  Should Boc choose 
to take no action, the interim ministers could serve until 
December 1, beyond the November 22 first round of the 
Presidential elections. 
 
¶6. (C) The second option of a PDL-UDMR-independent technocrat 
government would require parliamentary approval, and despite 
ongoing negotiations with individual MPs from other parties 
it is uncertain that PDL could muster the necessary votes for 
approval of a new Cabinet.  Also, to date UDMR has not agreed 
to any form of coalition with PDL before the presidential 
elections, apparently preferring instead to limit itself to 
parliamentary support of PDL initiatives.  Indeed given the 
short time before the election there seems no incentive for 
UDMR to do anything else. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment:  PSD seems clearly to have emerged from this 
crisis as the big loser.  Having lost resources, government 
positions and patronage in the short-run (reftel), their best 
hope appears to be an even more aggressive anti-Basescu 
campaign.  In addition, PSD's departure from government 
allows them to avoid co-responsibility for any actions that 
Boc or Basescu may take between now and the election.  For 
PDL and Prime Minister Boc in particular, the challenge now 
will be to govern the country and manage the party, while at 
the same time supporting Basescu's re-election campaign. 
However, there is no guarantee that either government or PDL 
party interests will fully coincide with the president's 
agenda.  End comment. 
 
 
GITENSTEIN