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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BEIJING 002866 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2029 
TAGS: PHUM PREL PGOV CH EZ LO GE SCUL
SUBJECT: SUBJECT: SCHOLAR SAYS PRC EFFORTS TO CURB OVERSEAS 
DISSIDENT ACTIVITIES VARY ACCORDING TO INFLUENCE OF 
COUNTRIES INVOLVED 
 
BEIJING 00002866  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Classified By: Classified By: Political Minister Counselor Aubrey Carls 
on for reasons 
1.4 (B/D) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  PRC efforts to curb Chinese dissident 
activities abroad are directly proportional to PRC 
perceptions of influence of the countries involved, according 
to a Chinese scholar.  For example, China will take some 
action should its demands that no "controversial" figures 
attend the October 14-18 Frankfurt Book Fair (where China is 
the Guest of Honor) not be met, because China considers 
Germany an influential country.  In contrast, the PRC is 
unlikely to go beyond harsh words in response to dissident 
activities conducted in smaller countries, such as the Dalai 
Lama's recent visits to Slovakia and the Czech Republic, our 
contact asserted.  German Embassy contacts confirmed Chinese 
skittishness over dissident participation at the Frankfurt 
Book Fair, while Czech and Slovak diplomats downplayed 
repercussions over the Dalai Lama's visits.  End Summary. 
 
China to Make an Example of Germany If Offended 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶2. (C) In a September 29 meeting with PolOff, Euro-Asian 
Social Development Research Institute European Studies 
Professor Ma Xipu said that the high-profile nature of the 
Frankfurt Book Fair and China's status as Guest of Honor had 
prompted the PRC to insist to Fair organizers that nothing 
objectionable be allowed to occur, particularly the 
attendance of high-profile dissidents, such as the Dalai Lama 
or Rebiya Kadeer.  Professor Ma said provocative acts by 
dissidents occurred in many countries, but Beijing reserved 
retaliatory responses for influential countries, such as 
Germany.  Ma claimed that retaliation would be aimed at 
sending a clear message to Germany that the bilateral 
relationship could be impacted and the Book Fair itself 
undermined.  Any response would also be calculated to send a 
clear message to the United States, especially in light of a 
possible future meeting between the President and the Dalai 
Lama, Ma added.  In contrast, Ma suggested, September visits 
by the Dalai Lama to the Czech Republic and Slovakia were 
unlikely to result in anything more than the strident voicing 
of PRC objections. 
 
Wrangling over Dai Qing's Participation 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) In a September 24 meeting with PolOff, German Embassy 
Cultural Affairs Officer Conrad Hassler said that the Book 
Fair organizers had sent ten invitations to the General 
Administration for Press and Publications (GAPP) for a 
September 12 symposium titled "China and the World - 
Perceptions and Realities" to be distributed to Chinese 
invitees, including dissident author Dai Qing.  Dai did not 
receive her invitation, however, so the private PEN Society 
issued her an invitation, which was required to obtain a 
German visa.  Dai's flight to the event was cancelled for 
unknown reasons and she was forced to make last-minute 
alternate travel arrangements, according to Hassler.  He 
added that a deal had been reached between the Book Fair 
organizers and GAPP to allow Dai to attend as an audience 
member but not make statements or appear on a discussion 
panel.  However, Dai did in fact participate in a panel that 
included a former Chinese Ambassador to Germany, who left in 
protest along with his whole delegation, although they all 
eventually came back.  Hassler said the PRC Ambassador later 
characterized his walk-out as an act of "freedom of 
expression." 
 
Book Fair Organizers Caught Off Guard by Chinese Reaction 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶4. (C) Hassler said that the Book Fair organizers had not 
anticipated these problems, noting that PRC objections had 
not surfaced until recently even though the Book Fair had had 
a contract with the GAPP since in 2007.  With some 600 events 
planned, and an official 500-person Chinese delegation led by 
Vice President Xi Jinping expected, organizers did not wish 
to create problems for their guest of honor country.  Hassler 
 
BEIJING 00002866  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
stated Germany was firm in its position that the Book Fair 
was a private event, and the German government could not make 
some of the guarantees Beijing sought.  For example, GAPP 
officials at the 11th hour objected to the Taiwan stand at 
the fair labeled (including in the printed catalogues) 
"Taiwan" (which was also the case in past Fairs). 
 
Opening Ceremony, Rebiya Kadeer Appearance Concern PRC 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶5. (C) Hassler said the PRC was especially nervous about the 
Fair's opening ceremony October 14, adding that China had 
still not publicly announced its keynote speaker for the 
ceremony.  Of particular concern to Chinese officials was the 
potential attendance of dissident Rebiya Kadeer.  Hassler 
said that Rebiya Kadeer might attend as an author, but he did 
not expect her to be featured at any events.  Her 
participation remained uncertain, however, as the Fair 
organizers seemed unsure how to handle the situation, 
according to Hassler. 
 
PRC Strategy: Consistent in Words but Selective in Action 
--------------------------------------------- ------------ 
 
¶6. (C) Negative outcomes at the Book Fair would certainly 
affect bilateral relations between Germany and China, 
insisted MFA European Affairs Department Germany Division 
Deputy Director Du Xiaohui September 29.  Likewise, MFA 
European Affairs Department East European Division Third 
Secretary Li Hun told PolOff September 22, the Dalai Lama's 
visits to Bratislava and Prague had affected bilateral 
relations, especially with the Czech Republic because the 
Czech Prime Minister had met with the Dalai Lama, whereas in 
Slovakia he did not meet with any government officials. 
Separately, Professor Ma assessed that negative effects on 
relations with Slovakia and the Czech Republic would not go 
beyond words, "since they were not big countries with 
influence." 
 
Slovaks, Czechs on Dalai Lama Visits: Life Goes On 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶7. (C) During a September 14 meeting with PolOff, Slovak 
Embassy Political Counselor Miroslav Tomo insisted his 
government had not known about the Dalai Lama's invitation 
from NGOs until reported by the press, and the PRC had no 
choice but to condemn the visit.  However, he emphasized, no 
Slovak leadership met with the Dalai Lama due to the fact 
several economic bilateral initiatives were being pursued. 
Tomo mentioned Slovakia's small size made it hard to attract 
PRC interest, but bilateral economic ties, important to 
Slovakia, were growing, particularly in automobiles and 
electronics.  In addition, he said the Slovakian Minister of 
Transport would soon visit to discuss the building of 
logistic and transport projects in China. 
 
Czechs Not Worried 
------------------ 
 
¶8. (C) Czech Embassy Political Counselor Ivana Grollova told 
PolOff September 18 that the Czech government was not worried 
about possible Chinese retaliation.  She said the Chinese 
rhetoric was the "same as usual," and since Czech economic 
interests with China were almost entirely within the EU 
framework, the Czech Republic could "hide behind" the EU, 
minimizing bilateral economic effects. 
 
HUNTSMAN