VZCZCXRO9146
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHAE #0338 2741347
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 011347Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ASMARA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0514
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RUMICEA/JICCENT MACDILL AFB FL
RHRMDAB/COMUSNAVCENT
RUEPADJ/CJTF-HOA J2X CAMP LEMONIER DJ
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ASMARA 000338 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR AF/E 
LONDON AND PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHERS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2019 
TAGS: ECON ENRG PGOV ER
SUBJECT: HOW LONG WILL WE HAVE ELECTRICITY? 
 
REF: A. ASMARA 177 
     ¶B. 08 ASMARA 558 
 
Classified By: CDA Melinda Tabler-Stone for reason 1.4(d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Eritrea's main power generators in Massawa 
have approximately 30 days left of vital lubricants.  Without 
timely delivery of new lubricant, Eritrea could experience 
rolling brown outs or even massive black outs, according to 
Total's managing director, Mohammed Gpebo (protect). 
Although Total is cooperating with the Eritrean government 
(GSE) to ship the lubricants, it is very unlikely they will 
arrive before the remaining supply depletes.  Gbepo named 
several ways in which the generators' operations could be 
extended by several days or weeks, however, these plans all 
hinged on the generator equipment being at a certain 
standard, which seems questionable given information Gbepo 
provided on the generators in June (ref A).  End Summary. 
 
¶2. (C) Gbepo told Poloff he received a call September 15 from 
the power plant's manager that the lubricants necessary to 
run the generators would run out in 30 days.  Total is the 
sole supplier for these lubricants (reftel B), purchasing 
them from Dubai.  However, the GSE did not, until September 
17, provide a guarantee from the Commercial Bank of Eritrea 
worth $950,000 to purchase 480 drums.  Gbepo estimated the 
lubricants would take 40-45 days to ship from Dubai, or 
possibly a few days less if the GSE can pony up an additional 
$6,000 to pay for a faster ship. 
 
¶3. (C) Gbepo claimed there are several ways the plant could 
extend the remaining lubricant until the shipment arrives. 
For instance, the plant manager could use only 15 days worth 
of the remaining lubricant, and then "cut" the dirty 
lubricant with the last 15 days worth, adding another 10 days 
to the machine's life.  The manager could also shut down one 
or two of the four generators, which would temporarily shut 
down any factories (i.e. soap, cement, the brewery), but 
would be enough to power homes.  Another option would be to 
institute blackouts, say, every day from 2am-5am. 
 
¶4. (C) The power plant in Massawa is good quality, Gbepo 
continued, but it has not been properly maintained (ref A). 
The machinery might be too decrepit to use run on dirty 
lubricant or tolerate repeated shutdowns/startups.  While 
Gbepo does not believe the country will experience a complete 
power failure in the near future, he did not see how the GSE 
will continue to get the hard currency it needs to purchase 
the lubricants and other needed accessories. 
MCMULLEN