VZCZCXRO4971
PP RUEHPA
DE RUEHAB #0640/01 3031413
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 301413Z OCT 09
FM AMEMBASSY ABIDJAN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5489
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USAFRICOM STUTTGART GE PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0271

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABIDJAN 000640 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM SOCI IV
SUBJECT: RENEWED SKIRMISH OVER NATIONALITY DELAYING 
ELECTORAL LIST PUBLICATION 
 
REF: A) ABIDJAN 626 B) ABIDJAN 629 
 
Classified By: Ambassador Wanda L. Nesbitt for reasons 1.4 (b/d) 
 
¶1. (C) Summary: Publication of the provisional electoral list 
remains stalled; key Ivorian leaders cannot agree on how to 
deal with 1.9 million cases in which names on the list have 
not been matched with a historical record.  President Gbagbo 
reportedly favors immediate publication of a list that 
distinguishes confirmed from unconfirmed voters, but would 
require the latter to present proof of nationality. The 
opposition adamantly opposes this approach which it believes 
undermines the foundation of the Ouagadougou Political Accord 
(OPA). PM Soro is trying to broker a solution with the 
support of Facilitator Blaise Compaore and, according to SRSG 
Choi, has asked the electoral commission to do additional 
record checks. Choi believes it will be at least another 
month before the preliminary list is published. If that is 
the case elections cannot be held before March 2010. End 
Summary 
 
¶2.  (SBU) As noted in ref A, 2.7 million of the 6.3 million 
individuals who registered during the identification/ 
enrollment process were not found when the names were checked 
against a set of historical records. Secondary checks reduced 
that number to 1.9 million.  The political parties agree that 
some percentage of the 1.9 million are Ivorian and should be 
able to vote; they also agree that some are people who 
registered using fraudulent documents and are not Ivorian. 
They have fundamentally different views, however, about how 
to resolve the problem. 
 
FPI CONCERN: FOREIGNERS WILL BECOME IVORIAN 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶3.  (SBU) President Gbagbo's FPI has long feared that 
foreigners (26% of Cote d'Ivoire's population is from 
neighboring countries) who have no right to vote would 
infiltrate the electoral process. First Lady Simone Gbagbo 
and other leading FPI officials have publicly expressed 
skepticism about the 1.9 million and the FPI appears to 
genuinely believe that most are probably not legitimate 
voters.  The FPI is therefore insistent that names not found 
in a historical record be separated out and these individuals 
required to present proof of nationality during the four week 
period set aside for resolving disputed cases. The FPI also 
maintains that historical record checks were always 
envisioned and that the opposition agreed to these checks 
even before the OPA was signed. FPI leaders, such as Sokouri 
Bohui, one of the party's founding members, are insisting in 
press interviews that historical record checks were always 
intended to  confirm the nationality of everyone on the list. 
The FPI believes the opposition is being duplicitous. 
 
RDR/PDCI CONCERN: IVORIANS WILL BE LABELED FOREIGNERS 
--------------------------------------------- --------- 
 
¶4. (SBU)  The opposition, particularly Alassane Ouattara's 
RDR party, has been equally adamant that the FPI approach is 
unacceptable.  Amadou Gon Coulibaly, campaign manager and 
spokesperson for RDR president Alassane Ouattara, explained 
the RDR perspective to Ambassador on October 26. Coulibaly 
stressed that the FPI tried the same approach in 2006 and 
failed because there are too many incomplete and/or 
inaccurate records in Cote d'Ivoire. Coulibaly said the OPA 
was a major breakthrough because it allowed Ivorians to 
register to vote using only a birth certificate or jugement 
suppletif (the document issued through the audience foraines 
or mobile courts process.)  For the RDR, this was an implicit 
recognition of the fact that many Ivorians have no other 
documentation and it wants that understanding to be honored. 
The RDR believes that most of the 1.9 million are legitimate 
voters and that all should be considered Ivorian unless proof 
to the contrary is located. They see the FPI position as a 
maneuver to exclude new voters and are insisting on a clean 
electoral list that does not categorize Ivorians. 
 
¶5. (C) Coulibaly explained the difference between the FPI and 
the RDR over the purpose of "historical record checks". The 
RDR's view, Coulibaly said, has always been that historical 
record checks could be conducted to identify foreigners, 
thereby addressing the FPI's stated concern. Relevant records 
would include refugee lists, the list of foreigners who were 
issued resident cards, etc.  Coulibaly shared with Ambassador 
a letter the RDR sent to the CEI (Independent Electoral 
Commission) in July 2009, proposing that three specific sets 
of records be consulted. Coulibaly said the RDR never 
received a response, and never agreed to the twelve 
historical records that were ultimately selected. The RDR 
maintains that were it possible to confirm everyone's 
 
ABIDJAN 00000640  002 OF 002 
 
 
nationality through a historical record, the audiences 
foraines process would not have been needed. 
 
LIST NEEDS TO NUMBER AT LEAST 5 MILLION 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) SRSG Choi briefed the diplomatic community October 
29 on efforts to resolve this dispute.  According to Choi, PM 
Soro has asked CEI president Mambe to conduct another round 
of record checks to reduce the 1.9 million by as many names 
as possible.  Choi pointed out that the 2000 voter list 
contained a little over 5 million names; it would be 
politically untenable for the CEI to produce a list in 2009 
with fewer names (only 4.4 million were confirmed after the 
first check.)  Soro believes the CEI must try to positively 
confirm at least 5 million.  However, this will delay even 
further the publication of a preliminary list. Choi thought 
it would be at least another month before a new list was 
compiled and ready for posting. He acknowledged that he would 
not be able to certify the electoral list if any of the major 
parties/candidates deemed it unacceptable. Choi stressed, 
however, that he sees no sign that any of the parties have a 
hidden political agenda and that the available data indicate 
that no party has a particular advantage with regard to the 
1.9 million, who are spread throughout the country. Choi 
would not speculate about a new election date.  He thought it 
important for the electoral list dispute to be resolved and a 
final list agreed upon by the end of the year. EU 
representatives reaffirmed their calculation that a minimum 
of three months are needed between publication of the final 
list and election day. They estimate March 2010 to be the 
earliest realistic timeframe. 
 
¶7. (C) Comment: Contacts at the French Embassy tell us that 
the CEI is still under pressure from President Gbagbo to 
publish the list as soon as possible (Gbagbo told the press 
October 29 that the list would be available on November 3) 
but the CEI is evidently following instructions from PM Soro 
to continue whittling down the 1.9 million. Soro appears to 
have the support of Blaise Compaore in this approach, 
underscoring the critical role the Facilitator still plays. 
This episode demonstrates that CEI is not, and perhaps cannot 
be, truly independent given the political sensitivities that 
surround its work. 
 
¶8. (C) Comment Cont'd: The controversy over the preliminary 
electoral list also highlights the deep divisions that remain 
over the national identity issue. SRSG Choi has been 
criticized for advocating a political solution, but we 
believe his approach is the right one. Nationality in Cote 
d'Ivoire is not a technical calculation but a very sensitive 
political issue that could once again spark violent clashes. 
Exchanges between the political parties are becoming 
increasingly heated and we anticipate they will become even 
more rancorous as the process drags on. Embassy will 
encourage the GOCI to continue moving forward and will 
support Choi's efforts to impress upon Ivorians the fact that 
too much progress has been made to allow the process to now 
unravel. 
 
NESBITT