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DE RUEHVB #0552/01 2530812
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O 100812Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY ZAGREB
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 9511
INFO RUEHLJ/AMEMBASSY LJUBLJANA IMMEDIATE 6463
RUEHMD/AMEMBASSY MADRID IMMEDIATE 0495
RUEHPG/AMEMBASSY PRAGUE IMMEDIATE 0623
RUEHSM/AMEMBASSY STOCKHOLM IMMEDIATE 0088
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ZAGREB 000552 
 
SIPDIS 
NOFORN 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/01/2019 
TAGS: PREL PGOV HR SI EUC
SUBJECT: EUR DAS JONES' ZAGREB DISCUSSIONS ON SLOVENIA 
BORDER DISPUTE 
 
REF: A. KARAGIANNIS-FREDEN 9/1/09 EMAILS 
     ¶B. FREDEN-HOLTZAPPLE 9/2/09 EMAILS 
     ¶C. LJUBLJANA 281 
     ¶D. ZAGREB 551 
 
Classified By: Rick Holtzapple, PolEcon Counselor, 
for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d). 
 
¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Croatian Foreign Minister Gordan Jandrokovic 
told visiting EUR DAS Stu Jones on September 1 that he 
believed agreement with Slovenia on a way forward in the 
border dispute was near, and that Croatia's EU accession 
negotiations might be able to re-start soon.  He added that 
he was also confident that the two sides could relatively 
quickly reach agreement on the next phase of the process, an 
agreement on how to put the border dispute itself to binding 
arbitration.  Both the Foreign Minister and the President's 
foreign policy advisor confirmed to DAS Jones that they would 
continue to pursue "quiet diplomacy" and avoid to the maximum 
degree possible any public comment on the discussions with 
Slovenia.  END SUMMARY. 
 
¶2. (C/NF) Jandrokovic said he would send a letter to European 
Commissioner Olli Rehn and/or the presiding EU foreign 
minister Carl Bildt of Sweden that would address Slovene 
concerns that no prejudicial decisions have been taken 
regarding the border and confirm Croatia's commitment to an 
EU-led process to return to discussions to agree on an 
arbitration tribunal that would resolve the border dispute 
once and for all.  Once the letter was sent, Jandrokovic 
said, Slovenia is expected to lift its blockade of pending EU 
accession chapters and allow Croatia's EU accession 
negotiations to resume.  Jandrokovic expressed confidence 
that the two countries would then be able to quickly agree on 
an arbitration tribunal.  The only obstacle was how to refer 
to the possibility of a Slovene "junction" with the High Sea. 
 If Slovenia was willing to consider changes that clarified 
that such a junction was not a foregone conclusion, then it 
should not be difficult to reach agreement.  Pressed by DAS 
Jones on whether he was certain the Slovene side was prepared 
to lift its block on accession negotiations even before a 
final agreement on the arbitration process was reached, 
Jandrokovic said the sequence of the deal was clear to both 
sides. (Per Embassy Ljubljana, the Government of Slovenia 
confirms the timing, but insists the reference to Rehn must 
be explicit.) 
 
¶3. (U) DAS Jones said the U.S. is encouraged by the positive 
mood in recent weeks on this issue.  We do not want to 
mediate the dispute, but are certainly supportive of the 
efforts to reach a solution.  We hoped that agreements on 
both the re-opening of Croatia's EU talks, and on an 
arbitration process for the border dispute, could be reached 
quickly. 
 
¶4. (C) DAS Jones also discussed the Slovenia issue with 
President Mesic's foreign policy advisor Tomislav Jakic. 
Jakic noted that Mesic and his office were not directly 
involved in the negotiations with Slovenia.  He also noted 
that it would be a political challenge for the government to 
go back to the parliament with a new version of an 
arbitration agreement after the Croatian parliament had 
already accepted the earlier Rehn proposal in April.  But he 
said that Mesic would support an agreement for third-party 
arbitration, as long as it was based on international law. 
Jakic also agreed that both sides would need to avoid any 
"triumphalist" statements in their official statements, 
although he raised some concern about how the press might 
portray developments. 
 
¶5. (C/NF) COMMENT:  The Croatians are indeed optimistic on 
the chances for reaching agreement with the Slovenes soon. 
Based on REFS A and B, both sides appear to share a common 
view of the way forward.  The process as we understand it 
from the Croatians is as follows (note that this scenario is 
very close hold, even within the Croatian government, where 
perhaps less than a dozen people are familiar with the 
details): 
 
i) the parties agree on a text of a letter saying two things: 
first, that no decisions or documents produced since June 
1991 should prejudice the eventual resolution of the border 
dispute, and second, that Croatia is prepared to return to an 
EU-led or assisted process to agree on an arbitration 
process. This letter would be endorsed in some way by the 
Croatian Parliament, and then sent to Commission Rehn, 
Swedish FM Bildt, or both. Per REF C, it appears the two 
 
parties have reached agreement on this letter. 
 
ii) The Slovenian government would lift its reserves on those 
of Croatia's EU accession chapters current pending in the EU 
Council working group and which have already been accepted by 
the other 26 EU Member States. 
 
iii) The Swedish EU Presidency convenes an Intergovernmental 
Conference (IGC), the first since October 2008, to open 
and/or close as many of fourteen negotiating chapters.  From 
earlier conversations with Croatian officials, we understand 
that in an ideal scenario this Intergovernmental Conference") 
is penciled in by the Swedish EU Presidency for as early as 
September 16. 
 
iv) Bildt, Rehn or both call both parties to a meeting to 
re-convene discussions on an Arbitration Agreement, based on 
the earlier Rehn proposals. 
 
v) An Arbitration Agreement is reached "by the end of 2009". 
Both parliaments presumably need to ratify this Agreement to 
ensure that the arbitration award will be binding on both 
sides.  The Arbitration Tribunal is named and begins its 
work. 
 
vi) Croatia's EU accession negotiations conclude (sometime in 
2010?), assuming other issues such as ICTY cooperation are 
also resolved. 
 
vii) Croatia and all EU Member States, including Slovenia, 
ratify Croatia's Accession Treaty (sometime in 2011?).  In 
Croatia this will require both a public referendum and 
parliamentary ratification.  In Slovenia, it is hoped 
ratification could be done by parliament alone, but the 
requirements for forcing a referendum are relatively easy to 
meet.  Croatia joins the EU. 
 
viii) The Arbitration Tribunal issues its decision or award. 
 
Assuming this process moves forward on lines similar to those 
laid out above, and in particular as the issues arise for 
parliamentary consideration -- first to support the initial 
letter, and later to ratify an actual Arbitration Agreement 
to be make it binding -- we should be prepared to publicly 
voice our support for the process.  END COMMENT. 
 
¶6. (U) DAS Jones has cleared this cable.  Other issues 
discussed during his visit to Zagreb are reported REF D. 
WALKER