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C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001285 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/08/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM INR PHUM BL
SUBJECT: BATTLE LINES DRAWN FOR DECEMBER ELECTIONS 
 
REF: A. LA PAZ 1256 
     ¶B. LA PAZ 496 
 
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires John Creamer, reasons 1.4 (b, d) 
 
¶1. (SBU) Summary:  With the passage of the September 7 filing 
deadline, eight parties have registered to contest the 
December 6 elections for Bolivia's presidency and 
Plurinational Assembly (Congress).  Three parties are set to 
split the bulk of the opposition vote, greatly strengthening 
President Morales's already-strong prospects for re-election. 
 Morales's ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party is 
likely to maintain control of the Assembly's lower house, but 
the opposition still has a (slim) chance to keep control of 
the Senate.  End summary. 
 
Four Main Candidates 
-------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU) After an eventful week in which three of six leading 
opposition candidates dropped out of the presidential race -- 
briefly raising expectations that the opposition might form a 
unified front against President Morales -- on September 7 
Morales's ruling MAS party and three leading opposition 
parties officially registered for the December 6 national 
elections.  In addition to President Morales, La Paz-based 
business leader Samuel Doria Medina, former Cochabamba Mayor 
Manfred Reyes Villa, and Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino declared 
their candidacies.  Four other parties also registered, but 
none is considered likely to have a significant impact. 
 
Cardenas Out, Lambasts Opposition Options 
----------------------------------------- 
 
¶3. (C) Former Vice President Victor Hugo Cardenas and former 
President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga both dropped out of the race 
in the final days leading up to the registration deadline. 
Quiroga admitted he had lost popular and financial support in 
his former stronghold of Santa Cruz and could not afford to 
go forward.  Cardenas publicly stated that he did not want to 
splinter the opposition and was leaving the race for the 
country's greater good.  Cardenas told Poloff privately, 
however, that he viewed Doria Medina as too close to the MAS 
and Reyes Villa's advisors as too corrupt.  "If Doria Medina 
loses, he will still have to work with the MAS on roads and 
infrastructure projects; he cannot afford to be too 
critical," said Cardenas. 
 
¶4. (C) Cardenas' complaints summarize popular concerns about 
the two principal opposition candidates.  Doria Medina is 
viewed as running as much to save his large cement business 
from nationalization as to lead the country, while Reyes 
Villa and his team are seen as prone to cronyism and 
corruption.  Reyes Villa worked in various capacities with 
former dictators Luis Garcia Meza and Hugo Banzer as well as 
expelled former President Gonzalo Sanchez de Lozada, all of 
which the MAS is expected to exploit during the campaign.  On 
September 8, in comments to the press, Vice President Alvaro 
Garcia Linera echoed Cardenas' private remarks, labeling 
Doria Medina as "the democratic right" (presumably, the MAS's 
preferred opposition) and Reyes Villa "the authoritarian 
right." 
 
Presidency Not in Danger 
------------------------ 
 
¶5. (SBU) Even if Doria Medina and Reyes Villa campaign well 
against Morales, their fracturing of the opposition vote 
seems to guarantee President Morales' re-election.  Polls and 
Embassy contacts point to a Morales win with a percentage 
similar to his 2005 victory, when he won with 53 percent of 
the vote.  With a relatively strong economy and the solid 
backing of the country's indigenous and working-class 
populations, Morales remains very popular, dominating every 
opinion survey.  Together, Doria Medina and Reyes Villa could 
take perhaps as much as 40 percent of the vote.  The only 
other significant candidate, Rene Joaquino, has not polled 
well nationally and is likely to garner support only in his 
home region of Potosi.  Of the four other candidates, former 
MAS founder Roman Loayza has the potential to take votes away 
from Morales from the left, but polls have shown his support 
at no more than two percent.  The other three candidates have 
barely registered in polls, and their campaigns could take 
away as much support from the opposition candidates as from 
President Morales. 
 
Senate Still in Play? 
--------------------- 
 
¶6. (SBU) The presidential race will likely result in a 
decisive Morales victory, but the race for overall control of 
the Senate -- where all 36 seats are in play -- is closer 
(septel).  Initial polling and Embassy contacts indicate the 
three leading opposition candidates could ally to give the 
MAS a fight.  While the MAS is the dominant party nationwide, 
Reyes Villa, Doria Medina, and Joaquino each have pockets of 
regional support that could add up to a significant number of 
Senate seats. 
 
¶7. (SBU) Reyes Villa could do well in Chuquisaca, Cochabamba, 
Beni, and Pando, while Doria Medina could win seats in La Paz 
(his home department), Oruro, Santa Cruz, and Tarija. 
Joaquino's Alianza Social party is not likely to do well 
anywhere but in Potosi, but his party could win two Senate 
seats there.  If the opposition candidates do not cannibalize 
each other's support, together they could challenge what many 
say is a 20 to 16 lead for the MAS.  A secondary (and more 
realistic) objective for the opposition is to deny the MAS 
the two-thirds majority needed to amend the constitution 
further. 
 
Comment 
------- 
 
¶8. (C) In discussions with a range of opposition senators, 
representatives, and past government members, the mood is 
bleak, with many predicting MAS control of both houses of the 
Plurinational Assembly and a Morales presidential landslide. 
 We view this as the most likely scenario, especially given 
the opposition's inability to unite under a common banner. 
Still, the final constellation of opposition candidates has a 
slim chance of stopping the MAS drive to win the Senate. 
Some give Reyes Villa, a pugnacious and fiery campaigner, a 
chance to capture seats that would otherwise turn to the MAS. 
 Barring some extraordinary, unexpected development, however, 
Bolivia seems headed for five years of unfettered MAS control 
of government.  End comment. 
CREAMER