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O 010532Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY JAKARTA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 3209
INFO RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 JAKARTA 001451 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP, EAP/MTS, EAP/MLS, EAP/RSP 
NSC FOR J. BADER 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/09/2019 
TAGS: PGOV KDEM ECON ID
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT YUDHOYONO PONDERS CABINET PICKS 
 
REF: A. JAKARTA 1399 
     ¶B. JAKARTA 69 AND PREVIOUS 
 
Classified By: Pol/C Joseph L. Novak, reasons 1.4(b+d). 
 
¶1.    (C) SUMMARY:  Indonesia is abuzz with speculation about 
President Yudhoyono's upcoming Cabinet appointments, which 
are slated to be announced after his October 20 inauguration. 
 Some observers worry that inclusivist Yudhoyono will barter 
2009 Cabinet positions for party support as he did in 2004. 
Most analysts point out, however, that Yudhoyono, fresh from 
a landslide re-election victory, is now better placed to 
recruit more technocrats.  Yudhoyono has indicated he would 
offer Opposition parties Cabinet slots if they climb on board 
and join his parliamentary coalition.  The swirl of rumors is 
bound to continue in coming weeks until Yudhoyono makes 
public his choices.  END SUMMARY. 
 
CABINET ANNOUNCEMENTS EXPECTED AFTER INAUGURATION 
 
¶2.    (C) Indonesia is abuzz with speculation about President 
Yudhoyono's upcoming Cabinet appointments.  Based on 
Mission's soundings, President Yudhoyono is slated to 
announce his Cabinet picks after he is inaugurated for a 
second term on October 20.  Yudhoyono has announced that he 
is considering more than 100 candidates for roughly 40 
Cabinet positions.  He has also said he will not be 
conducting official interviews until after the next 
Parliament is sworn in on October 1.  He is also 
contemplating revising the current Cabinet structure, which 
has been criticized as too large and unwieldy for efficient 
decision-making. 
 
TECHNOCRATS OR POLITICS AS USUAL? 
 
¶3.    (C) Yudhoyono, known for his inclusivist tendencies and 
dislike of discord, bartered about half of the 36 positions 
in his current Cabinet to other parties in order to form a 
(weak) working majority in Parliament.  Critics have pointed 
out that Yudhoyono's pandering to party politics did not 
ensure buy-in in the Parliament (DPR) for his reform agenda. 
They have also criticized the current Cabinet for containing 
representatives of various vested and political interests. 
 
¶4.    (C) Yudhoyono, fresh from his landslide re-election by 
over 60% of the electorate and his party's solid showing in 
the April parliamentary elections, is now better-placed to 
fill his Cabinet with reform-minded technocrats than in 2004. 
 Cabinet members in Indonesia are vital players in reform 
efforts since they, not lower level officials, are often the 
source of reform initiatives.  Analysts see his unexpected 
pick of non-partisan professional economist Boediono (one 
name only) as his vice presidential choice as promising for 
future reform-oriented picks for the Cabinet.  Moreover, as 
Yudhoyono deliberates Cabinet possibilities, Boediono has 
reportedly been a key sounding board.  All that said, 
Yudhoyono's recent presidential campaign cost millions and he 
needs to pay back key contributors. 
 
OPPOSITION -- IN OR OUT OF THE CABINET? 
 
¶5.    (C) President Yudhoyono is also working hard to bring 
Opposition elements into his coalition--and a key lure for 
that effort is Cabinet slots.  Megawati Sukarnoputri who 
leads the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has 
staunchly resisted joining the President's coalition. 
However, her husband, powerful PDI-P patron Taufik Kiemas, 
seems inclined to join forces with the government.  PDI-P 
will be a harder sell than the Golkar Party.  There are 
indications that Golkar will be happy to join Yudhoyono's 
Cabinet if offered the right opportunities. 
 
¶6.    (C) Yudhoyono's allies in the Islamic-oriented parties 
(PKS, PPP, PAN, and PKB) also expect to be rewarded for their 
support of Yudhoyono's campaign.  According to contacts, some 
members of these parties have strongly opposed the idea that 
parties which have opposed Yudhoyono may now be rewarded with 
Cabinet seats. 
 
¶7.    (C) The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which hopes to 
maintain its current three Cabinet slots and possibly gain 
one, has also been displeased with the possibility that 
Yudhoyono might support PDI-P member Taufik Kiemas as Speaker 
of the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR).  (Note: The 
current MPR Speaker, Hidayat Nur Wahid, is a PKS member.  The 
MPR serves as an upper house of parliament, but only has 
symbolic influence.)  Some pundits note, however, that 
 
JAKARTA 00001451  002 OF 002 
 
 
Yudhoyono might want to bring Golkar or even PDI-P into the 
fold as a counterbalance to PKS influence. 
 
POSSIBLE PLAYERS FOR TOP POSITIONS 
 
¶8.    (SBU) Most analysts concur that President Yudhoyono 
will probably give the top positions in the Cabinet to 
technocrats or candidates with professional expertise.  These 
include the three key coordinating ministry positions, the 
position of State Secretary, Foreign and Defense Ministry 
positions, Home Ministry, Finance and Trade Ministry 
positions, and Health and Education. 
 
¶9.    (C) Some of those currently in the Cabinet, 
particularly the successful technocrats, will probably remain 
in the same or related positions.  For example, widely 
admired technocrat Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati, 
currently also holding down the economic portfolio, is 
rumored to be the front runner for Coordinating Minister of 
the Economy or Finance Minister again.  Fellow technocrat 
Mari Pangestu, currently Trade Minister, may also be 
considered for a 2009 cabinet position.  Respected economist 
Chatib Basri might take over the Finance portfolio, but it is 
not clear.  Current State Secretary Hatta Radjasa may move to 
the People's Welfare portfolio.  President Yudhoyono may 
reward close confidantes brothers Andi and Rizal Mallarangeng 
for their service by awarding them the Home Minister and 
Communications Minister positions, respectively.  (Note: a 
third brother, Choel Mallarangeng, ran the president's 
campaign.) 
 
¶10.  (C) Meanwhile, it seems that Hassan Wirajuda is likely 
to stay on as Foreign Minister, though there are some reports 
that he may take over as Defense Minister.  Presidential 
advisor Dino Djalal is reportedly making a play for the FM 
position.  UN PermRep Marty Natalegawa is also believed to be 
in the running if Wirajuda leaves the Foreign Minister 
position. 
HUME