VZCZCXRO9158
PP RUEHLH RUEHPW
DE RUEHIL #2285 2611406
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 181406Z SEP 09
FM AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4951
INFO RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 0894
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON 1333
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 5488
RUEHPW/AMCONSUL PESHAWAR 6887
RUEHLH/AMCONSUL LAHORE 7865
RUEHKP/AMCONSUL KARACHI 2262
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL

C O N F I D E N T I A L ISLAMABAD 002285 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/18/2019 
TAGS: PARM KNNP PREL KTBT PGOV MNUC PK
SUBJECT: PAKISTAN WILL OBSERVE CTBT CONFERENCE, BUT 
CONCERNED ABOUT POSSIBLE INDIAN NUCLEAR TESTS 
 
REF: STATE 95946 
 
Classified By: Anne W. Patterson for reasons 1.4 (b) (d) 
 
¶1.  (C) PolOff raised GOP participation in the Comprehensive 
Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Article XIV Conference (reftel) with 
MFA Disarmament Director General Irfan Yusuf Shami on 
September 18.  Shami reported that Pakistan will be an 
observer at the conference, as it has been since 1998.  He 
indicated that an officer from the Pakistani mission in New 
York probably would represent the GOP.  Although he welcomed 
the offer of bilateral discussions on the sidelines of the 
conference, he did not believe Pakistan would be represented 
at an appropriate level. 
 
¶2.  (C) Shami stated that the GOP is worried about signals 
from India that it is considering a new round of nuclear 
explosive tests.  These signals, coupled with the recent 
launch by India of a nuclear-powered submarine and its 
ongoing investment in anti-ballistic missile systems, 
suggests an arms race in progress, he asserted.  Reiterating 
previous remarks by Pakistani Foreign Minister Qureshi that 
Pakistan would not automatically follow a tit-for-tat policy 
should India test, Shami expressed concern at the possibility 
that India would conduct new nuclear tests and then 
immediately sign the CTBT.  "Such a scenario would be 
extremely difficult for Pakistan," he said.  He urged the USG 
to pressure New Delhi to not conduct new nuclear tests. 
 
¶3.  (C) Comment: Shami's statements reveal some concern in 
Islamabad about Pakistan's strategic position vis-a-vis 
India.  Earlier, in the context of U.S. and allied demarches 
on the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty, GOP officials had 
expressed dismay about India's nuclear submarine launch, 
arguing that it changes the strategic equation on the 
sub-continent.  With the advent of the nuclear testing debate 
in India, the concerns in Islamabad appear to have ratcheted 
up a degree, such that Foreign Minister Qureshi decided to 
weigh in on September 9 saying Pakistan is "disturbed" by the 
reports from India, but "Pakistan is capable of protecting 
its interests."  While a repeat of the May 1998 nuclear tests 
seems remote at this juncture, Pakistani concerns bear 
further watching.  End comment. 
PATTERSON