VZCZCXRO2198
PP RUEHCN RUEHGH RUEHVC
DE RUEHHK #1807/01 2661007
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 231007Z SEP 09
FM AMCONSUL HONG KONG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8602
INFO RUEHOO/CHINA POSTS COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 HONG KONG 001807 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR EAP/CM; ALSO FOR DRL 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/21/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PHUM MC
SUBJECT: MACAU LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS: DEMOCRATS 
GAIN ONE SEAT 
 
REF: (A) HONG KONG 1767 (B) 08 HONG KONG 2094 
 
Classified By: Acting Consul General Christopher J. Marut for reasons 1 
.4(b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Results for Macau's September 20 Legislative 
Assembly (LA) were announced near midnight September 22, 
after recounting some 6,500 initially rejected ballots.  A 
record 59.9 percent turnout rate proved largely to support 
the status quo, returning eight incumbents and electing three 
candidates replacing members of the same party.  The one 
significant change was the democratic New Macau Association's 
(NMA) netting one additional seat, giving parties supporting 
eventual universal suffrage four of the twelve 
directly-elected seats.  Meanwhile, a union of two 
traditional associations, the General Union of Neighborhood 
Associations (Kai Fong) and the Women's General Association 
of Macau (Fu Lyun), lost one of its seats.  The ten 
indirectly-elected seats were already determined without 
election, while the seven appointed seats have not yet been 
announced.  While the vote process appeared free and fair, 
there were some instances of campaign irregularities, 
including free or discounted meals (illegal) and rides to the 
polls (ruled legal provided no campaign materials appeared on 
the vehicle).  A last-minute smear-attempt against NMA 
incumbent Au Kam-san may have cost him some votes, but proved 
unable to prevent his return by a considerable margin.  The 
new LA is expected to take office October 15.  End summary. 
 
------------------------------ 
"Democrats" Gain One, Miss Two 
------------------------------ 
 
¶2. (C) Of the three electorally-competitive groups running 
for the Legislative Assembly (LA) on platforms supporting 
eventual elections by universal suffrage -- New Macau 
Association (NMA), the Civil Service Union-backed "New Hope" 
and newcomer middle-class Civic Power -- only NMA made gains. 
 Splitting their incumbents Ng Kuok-cheong and Au Kam-sam on 
to two slates allowed Ng to carry his number two, NMA 
stalwart Paul Chan Wai-chi, to victory (see ref A for an 
explanation of Macau's electoral system).  Au polled enough 
votes to return himself but not his number two.  This result 
was within expectations -- our sense from contacts was that a 
fourth seat for NMA was possible but optimistic.  Their win 
increases the number of pro-democracy legislators from three 
to four, but the impact in the institutionally-weak and 
overwhelmingly pro-government chamber will be more symbolic 
than practical. 
 
¶3. (C) NMA faced some last-minute mud-slinging in the form of 
release of some confidential judicial documents relating to a 
fraud conviction against a member of Au's slate (done in 
absentia - the candidate herself had not even been informed 
of the court case; she is appealing).  Au himself was accused 
of a range of sins, including being a Falun Gong practitioner 
and having done some kind of back-room deal with Chief 
Executive-designate Fernando Chui Sai-on.  IIUM scholar Eric 
Sautede believes these tactics may have cost Au votes among 
new voters who generally support democracy but have no deep 
understanding of individual candidates, and could therefore 
be influenced by negative advertising of this sort. 
 
¶4. (C) More of a surprise was the failure of Agnes Lam 
Iok-fong to take a seat.  Lam's centrist, middle-class 
oriented Civic Power had been gaining momentum, and Lam hoped 
to capture a slice of the newly politically active Macau 
society who nevertheless feel uncomfortable with the more 
"confrontational" NMA (ref B).  Some contacts had predicted 
she would succeed, but she fell about 2800 votes short of 
winning a seat. 
 
¶5. (C) Democratic-leaning Jose Pereira Coutinho had claimed 
in recent weeks that his "New Hope" ticket had enough support 
to seat his number two, Macau Civil Servants' Association 
General Assembly President Rita Botelho dos Santos.  While 
the ticket posted gains on the order of thirty percent over 
2005 (putting its second seat ahead of Agnes Lam), the votes 
were sufficient only to re-seat Coutinho.  While some 
contacts had suggested "New Hope" had a chance, the general 
opinion had been that a second seat for them would have been 
a stretch. 
 
------------------------------ 
Establishment Holds its Ground 
------------------------------ 
 
¶6. (C) The establishment held most of its ground, with some 
tickets posting double-digit vote percentage gains.  Gaining 
nearly 30 percent over its 2005 performance, the Macau 
 
HONG KONG 00001807  002 OF 003 
 
 
Federation of Trade Unions (which also holds the two Labor 
sector indirectly-elected seats) ranked first in vote totals 
and maintained its two seats.  Fujianese community leader 
Chan Meng-kam's United Citizen's Association lost around 18 
percent over 2005, but maintained its two seats.  Chan's 
rumored connections to organized crime do not seem to have 
hurt his popularity, although his reported sweep of 80 
percent of those voters casting ballots from prison is at 
least food for thought.  Casino tycoon Stanley Ho's fourth 
wife Angela Leong On-kei also gained around 20 percent over 
2005, with IIUM's Sautede seeing Leong as Chan Meng-kam's 
main competitor.  The only net loss was suffered by the joint 
General Union of Neighborhood Associations (Kai Fong)-Women's 
General Association of Macau (Fu Lyun) ticket.  Our contacts 
suggest these stalwarts of Macau's "traditional 
associations," though active in providing a range of social 
services, have not adapted as well to an increasingly 
evolutionary political environment, and paid the price. 
 
---------------------------------------- 
Botched Ballots and Questionable Tactics 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶7. (C) Slowing the vote counts were around 6,500 ballots 
initially disqualified as spoilt (about 4.4 percent of the 
total) that the Electoral Affairs Commission ultimately 
decided to examine to see if voter intent could be 
determined.  While rumors have suggested some votes were 
deliberately spoiled by voters who accepted some gift from 
one of the sides but did not wish to cast the vote they had 
sold, most of the error was ascribed to a switch from ballots 
marked by pen to ballots marked by a stamp.  With less than 
1000 votes between the winner of the twelfth seat and her two 
closest competitors, the impact of the 5,467 votes eventually 
declared valid was potentially decisive.  In the end there 
was no change in the election. 
 
¶8. (C) In addition to the attempted Swift-boating of NMA's Au 
Kam-san, there were a number of practices reported in the 
media (including front-page ads supporting electoral slates 
on election day in some Chinese papers) which indicate that 
the execution of Macau elections remains a work in progress. 
Interestingly, the Macau Electoral Affairs Commission ruled 
that electoral committees could provide free transportation 
to voters provided the vehicles contained no election-related 
advertisements.  IIUM's Sautede (strictly protect) reported 
rumors that Angela Leong's campaign pulled the names and 
addresses of her company SJM's employees, then held some 
managers responsible for turning out a quota of voters in 
each polling district on pain of loss of their annual 
bonuses.  Media reported voters were also offered free tea 
and dim sum at the Landmark Hotel and lunch for one pataca 
(about twelve cents) at Fisherman's Wharf.  Both venues are 
owned by David Chow Kam-fai, whose wife Melinda Chan Mei-yi 
ultimately won the seat he is vacating.  A group arrested for 
alleged vote-buying was offering 500-700 patacas (about USD 
63-88) per vote.  Overall, however, Macau's Commission 
Against Corruption reported receiving around 40 percent fewer 
complaints from both the election period and election day 
itself over 2005. 
 
-------------------- 
And Now, the Numbers 
-------------------- 
 
¶9. (SBU) Below are the directly-elected seats in order of 
win.  Other than NMA and "New Hope", all may be reckoned as 
pro-establishment and generally pro-Beijing.  * indicates a 
new member.  Per ref A, each slate leader is reckoned as 
winning the full number of votes, while the number two is 
reckoned at half the total.  No slate won more than two 
seats. 
 
(1) Kwan Tsui-hang, Macau Federation of Trade Unions (running 
as "Union for Development") - 22,101 votes. 
 
(2) Chan Meng-kam, United Citizens Association of Macau (also 
a Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference 
    (CPPCC) delegate) - 17,775 votes. 
 
(3) Ng Kuok-cheong, New Macau Association (running as "New 
Prosperous Macau Association") - 16,907 votes. 
 
(4) Ho Ion-sang, Union for Promoting Progress (joint ticket 
between the General Union of Neighborhood Associations (Kai 
    Fong) and the Women's General Association of Macau (Fu 
Lyun)) - 15,033 votes. 
 
(5) Angela Leong On-kei, Macau Development Alliance (and 
Stanley Ho fourth wife) - 14,541 votes. 
 
HONG KONG 00001807  003 OF 003 
 
 
 
(6) Jose Pereira Coutinho, Macau Civil Servants' Association 
(running as "New Hope") - 13,159 votes. 
 
(7) Au Kam-san, New Macau Association (running as "New 
Democratic Macau Association") - 11,303 votes. 
 
(8) *Lee Chong-cheng, Macau Federation of Trade Unions - 
11,050 votes. 
 
(9) *Mak Soi-kun, Macau Guangdong Union (formerly the General 
Union for the Good of Macau; incumbent Fong Chi-keong 
    returned this time as an indirectly-elected legislator) - 
10,827 votes. 
 
(10) Ung Choi-kun, United Citizens Association of Macau - 
8887 votes. 
 
(11) *Paul Chan Wai-chi, New Macau Association (running as 
"New Prosperous Macau Association") - 8,453 votes. 
 
(12) *Melinda Chan Mei-yi, Alliance for Change (replacing 
husband David Chow Kam-fai) - 8,191 votes 
 
¶10. (U) Indirectly-elected candidates were returned 
uncontested. * indicates a new member. 
 
¶A. Industrial, Commercial and Financial Sector (4 seats): 
*Ho Iat-seng (National People's Congress Standing Committee 
(NPC/SC) Member; Executive Council (ExCo) member). 
Fong Chi-keong (CPPCC delegate, former directly-elected 
legislator) 
Cheang Chi-kong (ExCo member) 
Kou Hoi-in (NPC deputy) 
 
¶B. Labor Sector (2 seats): 
Lau Cheok-va (Vice President of LA; NPC deputy; Macau 
Federation of Trade Unions) 
*Lam Heong-sam (Macau Federation of Trade Unions) 
 
¶C. Professional Sector (2 seats): 
Chui Sai-cheong (younger brother of Chief Executive-designate 
Fernando Chui Sai-on; CPPCC delegate) 
Leonel Alves (ExCo member; CPPCC delegate) 
 
¶D. Social Services, Cultural (includes religion), Educational 
and Sports Sector (2 seats): 
Victor Cheung Lup-kwan 
Chan Chak-mo 
MARUT