VZCZCXRO4214
RR RUEHDBU RUEHFL RUEHKW RUEHLA RUEHNP RUEHROV RUEHSL RUEHSR
DE RUEHAG #1190/01 2680825
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
R 250825Z SEP 09
FM AMCONSUL HAMBURG
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE
RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HAMBURG 001190 
 
State for EUR/AGS 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958:  DECL 9/25/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT:  Bundestag Election, Northern Germany:  Regional 
Perspectives on the National Debate 
 
REF:  Berlin 1179 
 
CLASSIFIED BY:  CG Karen Johnson for reasons 1.5 b/d. 
 
¶1.  (C)  SUMMARY:  Heading into the September 27 national elections, 
a majority of northern Germans appears to be leaning in favor of the 
Christian Democratic Union (CDU), mirroring national opinion. 
Hamburg's successful CDU/Greens government is viewed as a possible 
role model for a national level coalition, but the Greens still lag 
behind the Free Democratic Party, the CDU's preferred coalition 
partner, just three days before national elections, and has very 
little chance of pulling ahead.  Due to an apparently unbridgeable 
divide between the FDP and the Greens, a coalition between the CDU, 
FDP and the Greens (the so-called "Jamaica coalition") appears 
unrealistic.   END SUMMARY. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
Hamburg CDU Focuses on the Undecided 
--------------------------------------------- ----- 
 
¶2.  (SBU) The Hamburg CDU decided to concentrate its heaviest 
campaigning efforts during the time immediately prior to the 
election, noting that most voters make up their minds in the last two 
to three weeks before an election.  Activity is expected to peak in 
the last three days before the vote on September 27.  According to 
the CDU Hamburg State Party Manager, the CDU has focused its efforts 
on swing voters since they will have the biggest impact on the 
outcome.  The CDU is following the same strategy in Lower Saxony. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
The Greens:  Campaigning on Hamburg Success 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶3.  (C) Lower Saxony's Greens Caucus Leader Stefan Wenzel told 
Consulate contacts that he believes the CDU would prefer a coalition 
with the Greens to a renewed Grand Coalition with the SPD, citing the 
relatively successful Black/Green coalition in Hamburg.  (Comment: 
The Greens, however, are currently polling at 11 percent, about two 
points behind the FDP, the CDU/CSU's preferred coalition partner.  It 
is unlikely that the Greens will be able to draw more support than 
the FDP.  End comment.)  Wenzel noted that the Greens perceive the 
Hamburg coalition as a "reliable partnership of equals," with both 
parties cooperating with mutual respect and accomplishing real 
results. 
 
¶4.  (C) Asked about the views of Federal Greens Chairperson and 
leftist frontrunner Juergen Trittin concerning a CDU/Greens 
coalition, Wenzel responded that coalition talks would not fail 
because Trittin's personal ambitions and interest in stepping out of 
Joschka Fischer's shadow are incentives for him to engage in 
coalition negotiations.  He added that Federal Greens Chairperson 
Renate Kuenast and Cem Oezdemir would also be prepared to enter into 
a coalition with the CDU. 
 
------------------------------------------ 
The FDP:  At Odds with the Greens 
------------------------------------------ 
 
¶5.  (SBU)  Lower Saxony FDP Caucus Leader Joerg Bode expressed the 
view to Consulate personnel that it would be difficult to form  a 
national CDU/CSU-Greens coalition, but he rightly predicted that a 
statement in favor of a coalition with the CDU would emerge from the 
FDP party convention that was held on September 20.  If a CDU/CSU-FDP 
coalition emerges from the elections, Bode predicts that the 
cooperation between the two parties will be smooth, as it has been in 
Lower Saxony over the past six years.  Bode stressed that the CDU and 
FDP would likely succeed in budget consolidation without causing a 
revolt on the streets. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
SPD:  "Caught in a Race It Cannot Win" 
--------------------------------------------- -- 
 
¶6.  (C) SPD Hamburg Caucus Leader Michael Neumann acknowledged to 
Consulate/Embassy officers in a recent meeting that the SPD is 
"caught in a race it cannot win."  Neumann noted that despite 
contentious election topics such as the controversy over the proposed 
permanent nuclear storage site in Gorleben or renewed calls to ban 
the right-wing extremist National Democratic Party (NPD), SPD 
chancellor candidate Frank-Walter Steinmeier will not capitalize on 
CDU/SPD differences.  He stated that the SPD will inevitably be 
fractured internally and subsequently shift to the left due to 
personal ambitions within that wing, regardless of who wins this 
election.  Neumann lamented the lack of rational discourse on the 
future course of the SPD, and predicted a move to the left would lose 
centrist voters, while failing to regain the voters previously lost 
to The Left. 
 
¶7.  (SBU)  According to local CDU officials, the SPD party suffers 
from several basic challenges, including:  1) lack of appealing 
personalities, 2) lack of credibility, and 3) lack of competence. 
Polls indicate that voters perceive the SPD more favorably than the 
CDU only with regard to social justice issues; in all other 
competence areas the CDU scored better (e.g. domestic security, labor 
issues, and finances).  The CDU believes that up to 30 percent of SPD 
voters will consider voting for the CDU based solely on Chancellor 
Merkel's personal popularity. 
 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
The Left:  Running on an Anti-Establishment Platform 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶8.  (SBU)  Although strong pockets of leftist support do exist in 
northern Germany, there has been little indication of any surge in 
popular support.  Rallies have clearly brought the party faithful 
together, but the appeal has not expanded significantly beyond the 
traditional constituencies.  As in the national campaign, locally The 
Left emphasizes increasing income disparities and throws blame for 
the economic crisis at the feet of "the establishment."  The Left is 
already represented in the parliaments of Bremen, Hamburg, 
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and Lower Saxony.  According to a Forsa poll 
of September 19, the Left could receive up to 6 percent in the 
upcoming Schleswig-Holstein vote and thereby enter the S-H parliament 
for the first time.  However, nothing expressed by any Consulate 
contacts indicates a belief that The Left will gain much more 
regionally than the percentage forecast in national polls. 
 
-------------------------------- 
The Extremist Right (NPD) 
-------------------------------- 
 
¶9.  (SBU)  Despite a well-publicized presence in northern Germany, 
right-wing extremist  parties, such as the neo-Nazi NPD, are not 
considered a viable option.  Political observers throughout the 
region do not believe that any of these parties would even come close 
to mustering the required 5 percent hurdle to enter the Bundestag. 
In reality, if any of the right-wing extremist parties gain votes, 
these will probably be "lost" as a percentage too small to factor 
into the total party shares.  This will lower the total required to 
build a coalition for the more mainstream parties (reftel). 
 
--------------- 
COMMENT 
--------------- 
 
¶10.  (SBU)  Post's conversations with senior CDU, FDP, SPD and Greens 
representatives suggest that this election cycle is likely to result 
in a continuation of "business as usual," German-style.  Some of 
Merkel's remarks in her campaign rally underscore the continuing 
importance of traditional German views:  the relevance of social 
market economic principles, their role as an anchor of German 
stability, and the need to export these principles to the world.  Her 
emphasis on the ability of a strong chancellor to "set the course 
right" implies that she sees her role -- and Germany's -- as a steady 
rudder in a time of turmoil.  Absent any last-minute surprises, 
Merkel's personal popularity is likely to appeal to many voters in 
northern Germany, and lead to the CDU's continued role as a senior 
coalition partner.  Regardless of which junior partner steps into the 
coalition, the resulting government  will continue to cooperate 
closely  with the United States, and work to enhance German-American 
ties.  End comment. 
 
¶11.  (SBU):  This message has been coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
 
JOHNSON