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O 251530Z SEP 09
FM AMCONSUL FRANKFURT
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 1883
INFO RUCNFRG/FRG COLLECTIVE IMMEDIATE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002525 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV GM
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS COULD IMPACT SAARLAND  COALITION 
BUILDING 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
 
¶1. (U)SUMMARY: Saarland, the small, picturesque German state on the 
French border, remains in transition following its August 30 state 
elections, when no party won a clear majority.  Despite its 
uncertain state, the Saarland parliamentary session opened this week 
on September 23.  Speculation about possible coalitions continues, 
with no clear answers.  A Social Democratic Party (SPD)-Left-Green 
(Red-Red-Green) or a Jamaica coalition (SPD-Green-Christian 
Democratic Union) appear the most likely.  The long-shot may be a 
CDU-SPD Grand Coalition.  A decision is expected following the 
Greens' statewide convention on October 11th.  All parties agree 
that the national interest in their coalition negotiations will 
decrease following the national parliamentary election on September 
¶27.  END SUMMARY 
 
 
LEFT PARTY AS PROBLEM CHILD 
---------------------------- 
 
¶2. (SBU)The Left Party, which pulled 21.3% of the vote in the August 
30 elections, entered the Saarland parliament for the first time 
this year.  They did so with a bang.  Rolf Linsler, the chairman of 
the Left Party, opened the session as he was the "Chairman of 
Seniority" (Chairman most senior in age.) Rather than stick to the 
usual non-partisan comments, Linsler delivered an energetic speech 
on how changes in German culture (due to the failures of past 
governments) had resulted in political gain for the Left Party.  All 
other parties uniformly viewed these comments with disapproval.  The 
chairman of the FDP, Christoph Hartmann, told us that this opening 
was emblematic of the Left Party and their occasionally problematic 
personality.  He anticipated that a Jamaica coalition would result, 
since the Greens have noted their discomfort with Left Party 
personalities. 
 
 
THE GREENS IN POWER 
 ------------------- 
 
¶3. (U)All parties continue to view the Greens Party as the 
"Kingmaker" in Saarland, since the Greens' chosen coalition will 
prevail.  The Greens will have its party members make the decision 
on coalition partners. They are holding three regional meetings in 
the coming weeks, with the final decision to be made on October 11th 
at a Saarland state party convention.  Formal discussions between 
the Greens and the SPD and the CDU began earlier this month, while 
the Greens met with both the Left Party and the Free Democratic 
Party (FDP) on September 24 and 25 following the Parliamentary 
Session. 
 
¶4. (SBU)According to Green parliamentarian, Markus Schmitt, a 
Red-Red-Green government appears to be the most likely, because the 
parties are closer on key issues.  Although Schmitt acknowledges 
personality tensions between the Left Party and Greens, he said that 
they would not be a determining factor, as the strength of Green and 
SDP relations would allow a Red-Red-Green coalition to succeed. 
Schmitt personally prefers a CDU-FDP-Green (Jamaica) government, as 
he feels such a coalition would set an example for the national 
level. 
 
 
HEIKO MAAS AND A DISPLACED CDU 
 ------------------- 
¶5. (SBU)In the meantime, the CDU General Secretary, Stefan Toscani, 
has been required to move to a new office in the Parliament building 
so that the Left Party could occupy his old one (The Left leader 
Oscar Lafontaine literally took over Toscani's old room).  This 
apparently was not meant as a symbolic move since The Left actually 
did need space in the building.  Toscani still believes that the CDU 
could have a place in government.  He, like Schmitt from the Greens, 
believes that a Jamaica coalition would be ideal, because it would 
set a precedent, serve as a model for the national level, and would 
work well. He posited however that the SPD was striving to make a 
Red-Red-Green government because its leader, Heiko Maas, desperately 
longs to become Minister-President and eventually rise to the 
national level. 
 
¶6. (SBU)Both Toscani and SPD Leader Heiko Maas himself also 
acknowledged that a Grand Coalition is not entirely out of the 
question.  Generally, the CDU and SPD in Saarland do not get along 
well; however, according to Maas, if a Grand Coalition forms 
nationally, pressure may come down to form one in Saarland.  Maas 
and his SPD colleague, parliamentarian Ulrich Comercon, however, 
favor a SPD-Left-Green coalition, saying that it would succeed 
because the SPD and Left agree ideologically.  Comercon also 
assessed that the Greens would not want to govern with the CDU 
because the CDU had antagonized them in the past. Comercon further 
highlighted the popularity of Lafontaine in Saarland as the reason 
 
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for why the Left should be in government. 
 
 
¶7. (SBU) Comment: The coalition options in Saarland remain open, 
with rampant speculation on all fronts.  Whether close party 
ideologies can overcome personality differences with regard to The 
Left Party remain to be seen.  Ultimately, what happens in the 
national election on September 27 may also influence how things 
unfold in Saarland, given both CDU and SPD comments that a Grand 
Coalition remains possible.  End Comment. 
 
¶8. (U) Consulate General Frankfurt coordinated this report with 
Embassy Berlin 
 
 
 
ALFORD