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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 FRANKFURT 002523 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/AGS 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL GM
SUBJECT: Merkel Under Pressure in Germany's Southwest 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; not for internet distribution. 
 
 
¶1.    SUMMARY:  No clear predictions can be made in Germany's 
southwest states as to which parties will prevail in the upcoming 
federal election.  Polls show that the Christian Democrats (CDU) 
have lost ground in Baden-Wuerttemberg (B-W), typically a CDU 
stronghold, however have gained slightly in Rheinland-Pfalz, making 
the overall situation somewhat of a wash.  The Social Democrats 
(SPD) also lag in the three states discussed in this cable, Hesse, 
Rheinland-Pfalz, and Baden-Wurttemberg, while the smaller parties, 
primarily the Greens and Free Democrats (FDP), are making up their 
losses.  Voter turnout due to malaise and dissatisfaction with the 
Chancellor Merkel also may be an issue. END SUMMARY. 
 
 
Considerable Unrest in Baden-Wurttemberg CDU 
-------------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  The latest poll publicized 10 days before the national elections 
caused shock waves in the B-W CDU.  The B-W Christian Democrats are 
presently at 34% of the popular vote, a decline of 5.2% compared to 
¶2005.   Although leading B-W Christian Democrats downplayed the 
results in public statements calling them "snapshots", the shock 
goes deep.  For the southwest CDU, typically one of the strongest 
CDU areas in the country, this result would be a historic low.  B-W 
CDU Secretary General, Thomas Strobl, and CDU caucus chief Stefan 
Mappus have publicly called upon the rank and file to mobilize. 
Strobl also indirectly criticized the campaign of Chancellor Merkel, 
which focused more on her as a candidate than on party policies. 
Regional dissatisfaction with Merkel is attributed to the impression 
that she sided with VW over the Baden-Wurttemberg based Porsche 
during the Porsche-VW deal.  An imprudent joke she made last year 
about southwest German accents also continues to anger some CDU 
members who view her as a Northerner who does not understand them. 
 
¶3. While the outlook for the CDU is poor, the B-W Social Democrats 
are not faring much better.  The SPD has dropped by 8.1% down to 
22%, the worst result in the last 56 years.  Deputy SPD Caucus Chief 
Nils Schmid told Consulate representatives that Foreign Minister 
Steinmeier's strong showing in the televised debate has helped, but 
they need two more weeks of campaigning to make up votes.  The 
smaller parties in B-W are benefiting. The FDP polled at 18%, up 
6.1% from 2005 election, the B-W Greens at 15 %(up 4.3%) and the 
Left Party at 7% (up 3.2%).  FDP contacts say that they want to 
prove that they are the third strongest party in Baden-Wuertemberg 
on Sunday. 
 
 
SPD Party in Rheinland-Pfalz Struggling 
--------------------------------------- 
 
¶6. Reports from Rheinland-Pfalz (R-P) indicate that the SPD is also 
struggling there.  Polls place them at 28% (down 6.6% compared to 
2005), the lowest ever since 1953.  CDU party chief, Christian 
Baldauf, stated that he views these results as an indication that 
the SPD's predominance in the state is coming to an end, after it 
has been the governing party there since 1991. The CDU, however, and 
the smaller parties, FDP, Greens, all show gains.  The CDU in 
particular is polling at 39%, which is up 3.9% from 2005.  Current 
polls put the FDP at 14%, Greens at 8% and the Left at 7%. 
 
 
SPD in Hesse Still Recovering 
----------------------------- 
¶7. In Hesse, the SPD is also struggling after the loss of 
credibility it experienced last year when party leader Andrea 
Ypsilanti tried to form a coalition government with the Left Party 
and failed.  The Hesse SPD Party currently is hoping for 25% (as 
opposed to the 35.6% it reached in 2005).  According to a senior SPD 
party official, many Hesse SPD members feel angry with the national 
SPD Chair Franz Muentefering, whom they think encouraged Ypsilanti's 
failure in 2008.  He expects Muenterfering to fail in national 
politics due to dislike for him in the party. 
 
¶9. The ruling CDU party currently expects around 34% of the vote 
(33.7 in 2005), according to a high ranking official in the Hesse 
State Chancellery.  The CDU fears low voter turnout, however, in 
part because, as per this official, Chancellor Merkel has alienated 
some of the Catholic, conservative base. The FDP Caucus Chief in 
Hesse, Florian Rentsche, echoed this sentiment.  Although the FDP 
expects a respectable 11 to 14% in Hesse (11.7% in 2005), Rentsche 
doubts that a CDU-FDP coalition will be possible because of CDU 
members not voting. He additionally says that the Chancellor has 
lost some of her conservative base by being too liberal and that 
she's also perceived by local members as too "Northern." 
 
¶10. The Greens hope to gain on Sunday due to the SPD losses. Their 
Hesse Chair Tarek al-Wazir told Consulate representatives that he 
expects the Greens to have the third strongest showing with 12% 
(10.1% in 2005). 
 
FRANKFURT 00002523  002 OF 002 
 
 
 
 
¶11. COMMENT: Regional issues do play a role in influencing how 
Germans will vote on Sunday.  However, it is not clear that 
indications from our district, including dissatisfaction with 
Chancellor Merkel and the possibility of low voter turnout, will be 
strong enough to upset the status quo: Merkel as the candidate 
favored to stay in power.   END COMMENT 
 
ALFORD