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C O N F I D E N T I A L FRANKFURT 002274 
 
DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/CE 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL AT 2019 
TAGS: ECON PGOV GM
SUBJECT:  GREENS KINGMAKERS IN SAARLAND ELECTION 
 
CLASSIFIED BY PBERRY FOR REASON 1.4 (B) 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary: Saarland voters gave incumbent Minister-President 
and Christian Democrat Peter Mueller a political lashing in the 
August 30 state parliamentary elections, and showed their continued 
affection for former Social Democratic Party (SPD) chief and current 
Left Party leader Oskar Lafontaine.  National CDU leaders may now 
have to re-calculate their campaign messages and focus for the four 
remaining weeks before national parliamentary elections.  A new look 
at the Greens may be in order.  The Saarland results have made the 
Greens, which Sunday afternoon still were nervous about remaining in 
parliament, the kingmakers in building the next Saarland government. 
Both Mueller and current SPD leader Heiko Maas were already wooing 
the Greens Sunday night, with Mueller seeking a CDU-Free Democratic 
Party-Green coalition and Maas an SPD-Left-Green government. 
Negotiations will almost certainly extend past the 27 September 
Bundestag vote. 
 
¶2.  (C) The results of the Saarland elections point to the bizarre 
nature of German politics at the moment.  The CDU lost the elections 
but the SPD didn't really win.  The Left Party made substantial gains 
but does not know how to manage its newly found power.  The Greens 
may be the kingmaker but they may seek to stall a decision on their 
future membership of a SPD-Left Party coalition until after the 
parliamentary election, which will result in a longer period of 
political uncertainty in a state to which many political analysts 
will be looking in coming weeks.  End Summary. 
 
¶3.  (SBU) The CDU and SPD both suffered losses on Sunday, when strong 
voter turnout appears to have benefitted Lafontaine's Left Party the 
most.  The CDU lost 13 points from 2004 but remained the largest 
party with 34.5 percent of the vote and 19 seats in parliament.  The 
SPD fell 6.3 percent to win 24.5 percent and 13 seats.  The Left had 
a strong third-place showing with 21.3 percent and 11 seats.  The two 
smaller parties both increased their share of the vote, the FDP from 
5.2 to 9.2 percent (five seats) and the Greens from 5.6 to 5.9 
percent (three seats).  Turnout was 67.6 percent, up from 55.5 
percent in 2004. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) CDU Minister-President Mueller conceded publicly election 
night that he had not expected such large losses, calling them 
"painful," but insisted that as the largest party the CDU has the 
right to head the next government.  He added he would talk to all the 
parties except the Left Party but was seeking a "Jamaica" 
CDU-FDP-Green coalition (which represent the parties with the colors 
black/green/yellow).  He rejected any suggestion that he might have 
to step down as minister-president to form such a government.  The 
Social Democrats celebrated the Sunday results despite their own 
losses, their worst since Saarland became part of the Federal 
Republic.  SPD leader and minister-president candidate Maas told U.S. 
Consulate officials that if it was up to him, negotiations could 
quickly produce a red-red-green (SPD-Left-Greens) government.  He 
stressed publicly that the CDU's campaign against a red-red 
government had failed and that the left-leaning parties won a clear 
majority.  Lafontaine clearly relished the Left Party's unexpectedly 
strong showing and also called for a red-red-green alliance. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) The Greens looked just as happy as the Left Party in post 
election interviews and are likely to make full use of their position 
as kingmaker in a future coalition.  Greens Caucus chief Hubert 
Ulrich joked that "we are very popular tonight" and rejected repeated 
attempts by the press to suggest a preferred coalition.  He said it 
was up to the other parties to come to them with a coalition proposal 
but that the Greens would take their time and base their decision on 
policy substance.  The Greens want to reverse Mueller's introduction 
of university tuition payments and are seeking much stronger support 
for public transportation than has occurred under Mueller, but they 
are closer to the CDU and FDP in supporting the phasing out of coal 
mining. 
 
¶6.  (SBU) At the same time, Ulrich called Lafontaine's campaign to 
keep the Greens out of the parliament "not nice" but said the Greens 
were "professionals" who would not let personalities get in the way 
of agreement.  Lafontaine, in a gesture to the Greens, repeated his 
intention to stay out of any government he would not head.  Overall, 
the Greens are torn between the intensity of their dislike for 
Mueller versus the Left Party, now that their campaign goal of an 
SPD-FDP-Greens alliance failed to gain a parliamentary majority. 
Ulrich noted that any decision would have to be approved by the party 
rank-and-file and that negotiations with either side would be very 
difficult. 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment: Although the final results of Sunday's vote remain 
wide open, they already show the continued decline of the so-called 
major parties and the need to consider new coalition alternatives 
that can give a well placed party influence beyond its size.  Both 
the CDU and SPD will work hard to woo the Greens, and the FDP and the 
Left Party have reasons to be flexible as well.  The only road to 
power for the Left Party is via an SPD-Left-Green coalition, and the 
FDP will have to make concessions to the smaller Green party if it 
wants to achieve its first ever participation in the Saarland 
government.  Either coalition would set a precedent for Saarland and 
for Germany. 
 
¶8.  (C) The election results also reflect the need -- and apparent 
willingness of party leaders at least in Saarland, where all of the 
parties are to the left of their national leadership -- to adjust to 
this changed political landscape.  The Greens may find themselves in 
the enviable position of determining Saarland's political future but 
their future decision over which parties to support in Saarland's 
coalition negotiations will undoubtedly have national implications. 
The Greens' Co-Party Chairman Cem Oezdemir quickly noted that "the 
SPD is closer to us than the CDU."  This means that the SPD, Left 
Party, and Greens stand a reasonable chance of forming the next 
government while at the same time fulfilling two key objectives of 
the Left Party: (1) CDU Party Chairman Peter Mueller's political 
demise, and (2) the creation of the second SPD-Left Party coalition 
in a German state after Berlin.  If Thuringia charts a similar 
course, followed possibly by Brandenburg (September 27) and 
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (2010), then a total of five states would be 
represented by SPD and Left Party state governments, prompting 
speculation that this particular political constellation could serve 
as a successful model for the 2013 parliamentary elections.   End 
comment. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Berlin. 
ALFORD