VZCZCXRO8678
PP RUEHCN RUEHDT RUEHHM
DE RUEHCHI #0132/01 2610718
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P R 180718Z SEP 09
FM AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1152
INFO RHEHAAA/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEHZS/ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
RUEHCHI/AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI 1236

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 CHIANG MAI 000132 
 
SENSITIVE 
SIPDIS 
 
NSC FOR WALTON 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV ECON PHUM TH
SUBJECT: REDSHIRTS, YELLOWSHIRTS DOWNPLAY RECONCILIATION CALL 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000132  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
Sensitive but unclassified; please handle accordingly. 
 
------------------------------- 
Summary and Comment 
------------------------------- 
 
¶1.  (SBU) According to both anti-government redshirt and 
anti-Thaksin yellowshirt groups based in Chiang Mai, the joint 
private sector-academic community's call for political 
reconciliation to facilitate economic recovery issued in August 
was "misdirected" and does not carry any weight.  While both 
sides expressed a willingness to sit down and work through their 
differences, neither expect the joint statement to have any real 
effect on Chiang Mai's economy.  For their part, redshirt 
leaders see the statement as one-sided, blaming them for 
Thailand's ills, while the yellowshirts wonder why the statement 
named them, arguing they have done nothing to cause trouble for 
local communities in Chiang Mai. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) Comment: While admirable, the joint efforts of the 
private sector and respected academics are unlikely to put a 
stop to redshirt and yellowshirt antagonism in Chiang Mai.  Even 
if they could, we doubt that an economic revival would take root 
as a result.  Though groups on both sides have caused local 
disturbances, blame for the downturn in northern Thailand's 
tourism sector rests more with the global recession (and 
influenza worries) than clashes.  Nonetheless, representatives 
of one redshirt and one yellowshirt group confirmed to us they 
will hold a low-profile meeting the week of September 21 to see 
if they can find some common ground.  End Summary and Comment. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
Private Sector, Academics Call for Compromise 
--------------------------------------------- ------------- 
 
¶3.  (U) At an August 11 press conference,  the Presidents of 
seven local universities and representatives from several 
business groups -- including the Federation of Thai Industries, 
the Chiang Mai Chamber of Commerce, Chiang Mai Tourism Business 
Association, and the Thai Hotel Association -- issued a public 
statement calling on all political groups to put their 
differences aside to "build unity for economic confidence for 
Chiang Mai".  The statement asserts that activities of political 
groups have had a negative impact on investment in the province, 
as well as the tourism and export sectors.  It affirms support 
for the peaceful expression of political views, repudiates 
violence, calls for law and order to be respected and law 
enforcement to be carried out equitably, and appeals for 
political groups not to obstruct the government's efforts to 
provide services to the people. 
 
¶4.  (SBU) Payap University President Dr. Pradit 
Takerngrangsarit, who signed the statement on behalf of the 
seven university presidents, told us that the initial draft of 
the statement read like an anti-redshirt diatribe, and he had 
impressed upon his colleagues that for the statement to be 
effective, it needed to be more balanced.  The final version 
names neither redshirt nor yellowshirt groups, and in our 
estimation, is objective.  (We will e-mail the statement to 
Embassy Bangkok and EAP/MLS.)  Nevertheless, groups on both 
sides have criticized the text, claiming that it singles them 
out, blaming them for Chiang Mai's economic woes. 
 
¶5.  (SBU) Private sector contacts spearheading the effort 
asserted that they were spurred on by a 50-70 percent drop in 
Chiang Mai's tourism-related business since the April 2009 
redshirt riots in Bangkok.  They therefore reached out to the 
presidents of seven local universities, who expressed support 
for their reconciliatory efforts.  The aim of the press 
conference, they said, was to get both sides to keep their 
political differences from negatively impacting Chiang Mai's 
economy.  The opposition redshirts' disruption of the late 
August visits to Chiang Mai of the Finance and Commerce 
Ministers was, in their view, the last straw.  While skeptical 
about the likely impact of their efforts, these contacts hope 
that the website they launched shortly after the press 
conference (http://www.peacechiangmai.com) will help raise 
public awareness of the political conflict's impact on the 
economy. 
 
-------------------- 
Redshirts React 
-------------------- 
 
¶6.  (SBU) The leader of the Rak Thaksin (Love Thaksin) redshirt 
group reacted harshly, noting that Chiang Mai's economic 
difficulties were a function of the global economic crisis 
rather than redshirt-spawned instability.  If investment and 
tourism in Thailand are down overall, he asserted, the decline 
 
CHIANG MAI 00000132  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
will affect Chiang Mai too.  He also claimed that several of the 
contributors to the statement are known to be sympathetic to the 
anti-Thaksin yellowshirts. 
 
¶7.  (SBU) For his part, the editor of the pro-redshirt "Red 
Front" magazine questioned the timing of the statement, 
wondering why Chiang Mai businesses were feeling the pinch now, 
but failed to speak up during the November 2007 seizures of 
Bangkok's two airports by the yellowshirt People's Alliance for 
Democracy (PAD) or the redshirt riots in Bangkok and surrounding 
areas in April 2009.  Meanwhile, the grassroots Confederation 
for Democracy highlighted the need for Chiang Mai law 
enforcement authorities to crack down with equanimity on both 
sides, noting that while action was taken against the region's 
pro-redshirt community radio stations in the wake of the April 
2009 riots, none was taken against the area's pro-yellowshirt 
community radio station for broadcasts in which it incited 
violence. 
 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
Yellowshirts Somewhat Less Displeased 
--------------------------------------------- ---- 
 
¶8.  (SBU) Three Chiang Mai figures associated with the 
pro-yellowshirt People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) also 
shared their views with us.  The leader of the Campaign for 
Popular Democracy said he did not see what blame the PAD bore 
for the economic downturn, aside from the broadcasts of one 
community radio station claiming to represent the PAD that have 
on occasion incited violence.  Our contact characterized the 
operator of that station as "an opportunist," saying he is not a 
true PAD supporter. 
 
¶9.  (SBU) A pro-PAD journalist viewed the reconciliation effort 
as ineffective, arguing that the academics and private sector 
representatives wanted merely to be seen as taking some action 
to arrest the region's economic slide.  He pointed out that the 
heads of several organizations that signed the public statement 
failed to appear at the press conference, perhaps out of fear of 
retribution by redshirt groups.  Though he supports tolerance of 
different opinions, he opined that pro-reconciliation stickers 
and the Peace Chiang Mai website were insufficient to get the 
message across.  He suggested that the radio stations of 
participating universities use airtime to actively promote 
political reconciliation, and that universities allow overtly 
political meetings to be held on their campuses as a sign of 
commitment to the effort.  (Note: Payap's Dr. Pradit was 
non-committal when we asked if his group would attempt to broker 
a reconciliation meeting between Chiang Mai's redshirts and 
yellowshirts.) 
 
¶10. (SBU) Another local PAD figure, who is also a businessman, 
and who lays blame for the downturn in Chiang Mai's tourism 
squarely on the redshirts, opined that the statement will not 
have a strong impact because it does not specify who needs to 
reconcile with whom.  He asserted that what was really needed 
was greater pressure on local law enforcement authorities to 
take decisive action against Chiang Mai's redshirts.  He also 
highlighted the need to restrict political content on community 
radio stations, so as to prevent them from being used to foment 
political disunity.  (Note: Northern groups on both sides of the 
spectrum have used their community radio stations to incite 
violence.) 
 
¶11. (U) This cable was coordinated with Embassy Bangkok. 
MORROW