VZCZCXRO6775
RR RUEHAST RUEHDH RUEHHM RUEHLN RUEHMA RUEHPB RUEHPOD RUEHSL RUEHTM
RUEHTRO
DE RUEHKO #1925/01 2320534
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
R 200534Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 5586
INFO RUEHZN/ENVIRONMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY COLLECTIVE
RUEHME/AMEMBASSY MEXICO CITY 0642
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL 7191
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 0528
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA 5986
RUEHNAG/AMCONSUL NAGOYA 3402
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA 8316
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE 9793
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO 6499
RUEHGV/USMISSION GENEVA 3577
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK 6819
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEHRC/USDA FAS WASHDC 8649
RUEAUSA/DEPT OF HHS WASHINGTON DC
RHMFIUU/DEPT OF HOMELAND SECURITY IA WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHMFIUU/USFJ

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 TOKYO 001925 
 
UNCLAS TOKYO 
 
 
DEPT FOR OES/IHB AMBASSADOR LOFTIS 
DEPT FOR EAP/J, EAP/EX, CA 
USDA PASS TO APHIS, FAS FOR BURDETT 
HHS PASS TO CDC 
HHS FOR OGHA 
DEPT PASS TO AID/GH/HIDN 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: KFLU AEMR AESC CASC KFLO TBIO KSAF KPAO PREL PINR
AMGT, MG, EAGR, JA 
SUBJECT: MGSF01 AUGUST 19 UPDATE ON H1N1 OUTBREAK IN JAPAN 
 
REF: TOKYO 1171 and previous 
 
TOKYO 00001925  001.2 OF 002 
 
 
¶1.  (U) Summary: Three people have died from the H1N1 virus in Japan 
during the past week, Japan's first H1N1 related deaths, and the 
National Institute of Infectious Diseases (NIID) is reporting 
nationwide infection rates that are at epidemic levels.  On August 
19, the Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare announced that H1N1 
has reached the full-scale epidemic stage in Japan and requested 
that the public take measures against further infections.  End 
Summary. 
 
H1N1 APPROACHES EPIDEMIC LEVELS IN JAPAN 
---------------------------------------- 
 
¶2.  (U) The H1N1 infection rate in Japan has increased dramatically 
this summer.  The latest NIID report (for the August 3-9 period) 
indicates an average of 0.99 patients per facility exhibiting 
flu-like symptoms, based on a nationwide reporting network of 5000 
designated medical institutions.  This approaches the epidemic 
threshold of one patient per facility and represents a sharp 
increase over 0.55 infected patients per facility noted in the July 
27-August 2 report.  The total number of nationwide infections was 
estimated to be 60,000 during the August 3-9 reporting period.  On 
August 19, the Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, Yoichi 
Masuzoe, held a press conference declaring an epidemic and asked the 
public to take preventive measures.  NIID estimates that 79 percent 
of the influenza cases reported from May 5, 2009 to August 9, 2009 
have been H1N1. 
 
¶3.  (U) According to the NIID report, H1N1 has entered a full-scale 
epidemic stage in Okinawa with an average of 20.36 patients reported 
per facility.  Separately, Okinawa Prefectural Government (OPG) 
officials report that the influenza infection rate in Okinawa 
prefecture continued to increase between August 10 and August 16; 
they estimate that there are currently 20,000 H1N1 infected patients 
in Okinawa prefecture, with an average of 29.6 cases per facility. 
This new data triggered the OPG to issue a public warning that 
Okinawa is experiencing an influenza epidemic on August 19.  U.S. 
military public health officials in Okinawa are also reporting a 
spike in flu-like symptoms on U.S. bases compared to last year. 
Experts note that while influenza infection rates do tend to spike 
during the summer months in Okinawa, this increase is larger than 
usual. 
 
¶4.  (U) Five other prefectures surpassed the 0.99 infections per 
facility denoting an epidemic: Nara (1.85), Osaka (1.80), Tokyo 
(1.68), Nagasaki (1.50), and Nagano (1.44) during the latest 
reporting period.  (Note.  We do not have data on absolute numbers 
of infected persons in Japan since the NIID only publishes the 
results of a survey of 5000 designated medical institutions.  The 
NIID methodology controls for population size in prefectures.  End 
note). 
 
JAPAN'S FIRST H1N1 RELATED CASUALTIES 
------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (U) The first three H1N1-related deaths have been confirmed in 
Japan.  On August 15, a 57 year old man suffering from kidney and 
heart illness in Okinawa became the first person to die of H1N1.  On 
August 18, a man in his late 70s, also suffering from kidney 
disease, died in the city of Kobe from H1N1.  On August 19, a female 
patient in her 80s suffering from multiple myeloma died of 
complications associated with H1N1 in Nagoya. 
 
TOKYO 00001925  002.2 OF 002 
 
 
 
¶6.  (U) A senior researcher at NIID commented in the Nikkei 
Newspaper that a full-fledged outbreak of influenza is expected on 
Honshu, Japan's largest and most populous island, after schools 
re-open in September.  The Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare 
(MHLW) expects to secure vaccine for 14-17 million courses by the 
end of this year and hopes to start inoculations in October. 
 
ROOS