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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 13 TOKYO 001769 
 
SIPDIS 
 
DEPT FOR E, P, EB, EAP/J, EAP/P, EAP/PD, PA; 
WHITE HOUSE/NSC/NEC; JUSTICE FOR STU CHEMTOB IN ANTI-TRUST DIVISION; 
TREASURY/OASIA/IMI/JAPAN; DEPT PASS USTR/PUBLIC AFFAIRS OFFICE; 
SECDEF FOR JCS-J-5/JAPAN, 
DASD/ISA/EAPR/JAPAN; DEPT PASS ELECTRONICALLY TO USDA 
FAS/ITP FOR SCHROETER; PACOM HONOLULU FOR PUBLIC DIPLOMACY ADVISOR; 
CINCPAC FLT/PA/ COMNAVFORJAPAN/PA. 
 
E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: OIIP KMDR KPAO PGOV PINR ECON ELAB JA
 
SUBJECT:  DAILY SUMMARY OF JAPANESE PRESS 08/03/09 
 
INDEX: 
 
(1) Selection of next U.S. ambassador (Tokyo Shimbun) 
 
(2) Editorial: LDP Manifesto - Interception of missiles targeting 
the U.S. commendable (Sankei) 
 
(3) Comparison of foreign, security policies: DPJ for equal 
Japan-U.S. relationship; LDP for reinforcing the alliance (Mainichi) 
 
 
(4) "Seiron" column: Mistakes not allowed in foreign and defense 
policies (Sankei) 
 
(5) Editorial: 2009 Lower House election; Raising questions about 
LDP policies; Course of action to achieve goals unclear (Nikkei) 
 
(6) Poll: Aso cabinet, political parties (Asahi) 
 
(7) Manifestos: LDP, DPJ vying with cash handouts to individuals 
(Mainichi) 
 
ARTICLES: 
 
(1) Selection of next U.S. ambassador 
 
TOKYO SHIMBUN (Page 2) (Full) 
Evening, August 1, 2009 
 
Taro Kimura, journalist 
 
U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry said at 
a committee session on July 23: "Today, Japan is probably 
experiencing political turbulence and change. However, there is no 
change in our determination to ensure Japan's security..." 
 
 If DPJ wins general election 
 
On July 23, the confirmation hearing on the nomination of John Roos 
as U.S. ambassador to Japan was held. In the wake of Chairman 
Kerry's remarks at the outset of the session, the U.S. Congressmen's 
interest was focused on the outcome of Japan's House of 
Representatives election, as well as how Japan-U.S. relations will 
turn out if the election brings about a change in government. 
 
Following Kerry's remarks, Roos announced his determination to 
become ambassador to Japan. At the confirmation hearing, Senator 
James Inhofe (Republican, Oklahoma) posed this question to Roos: 
 
"In Japan, the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) reportedly will 
likely make great strides in the Lower House election, defeating the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which has controlled Japan's 
politics for a long time. The DPJ has reportedly criticized the LDP 
for bowing to U.S. demands. In a recent report, as well, a DPJ 
leader reportedly stated that the DPJ wants to build independent and 
fair bilateral relations while distancing itself from the U.S. How 
do you think U.S.-Japan relations will turn out if the DPJ wins the 
race?" 
 
Roos responded to the question: 
 
"I'm trying not to predict the outcome of the election. However, I 
 
TOKYO 00001769  002 OF 013 
 
 
believe that there is deep understanding in U.S.-Japan relations 
regardless of political parties. Therefore, I don't think there will 
be any fundamental change in the bilateral relations. I think the 
remarks of the DPJ leader in question have recently changed to a 
more appropriate direction." 
 
In reference to Inhofe's question, Senator Jim Webb (Democrat, 
Virginia) asked this question: 
 
"It seems that a wave of reforms of government organizations and 
political parties has arrived in Japan for the first time. What kind 
of political dynamics do you think will be brought about by such 
reforms?" 
Roos and Webb exchanged the following dialogue: 
 
Roos: "Since Japan's politics after the election will be decided 
based on the framework of a coalition government, I will probably 
report on it after Aug. 30." 
 
Webb: "I understand why you hesitate to predict the election, but I 
am concerned about what will really happen in Japan." 
 
Roos: "As you know, the LDP gives top priority to the U.S.-Japan 
alliance relationship. Although the DPJ has taken a 'cool' stance 
toward Japan's support for U.S. Forces Japan and its refueling 
mission in the Indian Ocean; according to briefing by the State 
Department, I believe that the DPJ will maintain the strong alliance 
relationship in the end." 
 
DPJ should send policy index to Washington 
 
In addition to the above questions, Roos was asked only one more 
question. It was a question posed by Webb about Japan's economic 
recovery. This situation contrasts sharply with that of 
Ambassador-designate to China Jon Huntsman, to whom a variety of 
questions were posed. 
 
Four days after the confirmation hearing, the DPJ issued a policy 
index featuring the building of close and equal Japan-U.S. 
relations. If the party has prepared an English version, the party 
should send a copy of it to Washington. 
 
(2) Editorial: LDP Manifesto - Interception of missiles targeting 
the U.S. commendable 
 
SANKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
August 1, 2009 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is emphasizing the "ability to 
take responsibility to defend Japan" in its manifesto (campaign 
pledges) for the House of Representatives election. 
 
One of the main points is to "take the necessary security measures" 
to enable the interception of ballistic missiles fired by North 
Korea targeting the United States. In addition, Japan will also 
protect U.S. ships cooperating for missile defense (MD). 
 
Both measures have so far been banned on the ground that they 
constitute the exercise of the right of collective self-defense 
prohibited under the Constitution. While the words, "right of 
collective self-defense," have not been used, we commend the 
proposal to change the constitutional interpretation. 
 
TOKYO 00001769  003 OF 013 
 
 
 
The declaration of the intent to reinforce the Japan-U.S. security 
arrangements and continue participation in the war against terrorism 
is a matter of course for a ruling party. On the other hand, the 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) says it will terminate the refueling 
mission of the Maritime Self-Defense Force in the Indian Ocean next 
January. We would like to see a debate on what is necessary to 
maintain national interest. 
 
It is also characteristic of the LDP to propose an independent 
process of formulating the Constitution. It upholds the political 
neutrality of teachers and disapproves of bringing the ideological 
struggle of the labor unions into the schools. 
 
It is necessary for the LDP to firmly establish policies linked to 
the party's spirit at the time of its founding in 1995 and show the 
people its basic vision for the future of the country. 
 
In terms of restoration of fiscal health, the LDP presents a goal of 
achieving primary balance in national and local government finances 
in the next 10 years, demonstrating its difference with the DPJ, 
which lacks a plan on this issue. 
 
With regard to drastic tax reforms, including the consumption tax, 
the LDP reiterates its standing policy of completing the necessary 
legislative measures (for a consumption tax hike) by FY2011 and 
implementing the increase after economic recovery. We would like to 
hear the DPJ's argument on this. The DPJ is saying that the 
consumption tax will not be increased in the next four years. 
 
There are areas where the two parties compete for popularity with 
their policies, such as the LDP's proposal to make pre-school 
education free and the DPJ's plan to pay out child allowance. The 
ability to take responsibility also means not indulging in excessive 
populism and striking a balance between policy cost and effect. 
 
What the LDP needs to present is a concrete picture of what it wants 
to make of Japan. It has been appealing to the people that it has 
better governing ability than the DPJ in such areas as foreign and 
security policy and fiscal restructuring. It will not be 
constructive if it stops at criticizing the DPJ. 
 
Prime Minister Taro Aso, who wants to continue to lead the country, 
should talk more about his determination and preparedness to do so 
and about a blueprint for this country. 
 
(3) Comparison of foreign, security policies: DPJ for equal 
Japan-U.S. relationship; LDP for reinforcing the alliance 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Full) 
August 3, 2009 
 
Takahiro Hirata 
 
The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) stands for reinforcing the 
Japan-U.S. alliance while the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) wants 
an equal Japan-U.S. relationship. The difference between the two 
parties in their postures toward the United States has become clear 
from their manifestos (campaign pledges). However, the DPJ has 
softened its longstanding position on certain issues, such as the 
revision of the Japan-U.S. Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA), and 
shifted to a "pragmatic line." Therefore, it is unclear what will be 
 
TOKYO 00001769  004 OF 013 
 
 
different after a change of administration. The path to a solution 
to the serious problem facing Japan of North Korea's development of 
nuclear arms and missiles is undefined, and the debate on foreign 
and security policies tends to be overshadowed by domestic policies, 
such as support for child rearing. 
 
Meaning of "self-reliance" vague 
 
At his interview with Mainichi Shimbun on July 31, DPJ President 
Yukio Hatoyama explained what he meant by an "equal Japan-U.S. 
relationship": "We, the DPJ, attach the greatest importance to the 
Japan-U.S. alliance. Based on this premise, it is necessary to break 
away from the politics of relying on the U.S. and establish a 
foreign policy that encourages Japan to become more independent." 
 
The party's manifesto calls for "developing an independent 
diplomatic strategy and fulfilling Japan's responsibility positively 
by engaging in division of labor with the U.S." However, the goal of 
such "self-reliance" and "independence" remains vague. 
 
"Ambiguity" tends to characterize the DPJ's foreign and security 
policies. This is because it is unable to form a consensus among 
diversified opinions in the party, with its members ranging from 
people like Vice President Seiji Maehara, who values the Japan-U.S. 
alliance, to groups of former Japan Socialist Party members who 
oppose overseas missions by the Self-Defense Forces (SDF). 
Consequently, while the party is unanimous in its opposition to the 
policies of the government and the ruling parties, it has failed to 
come up with any concrete alternative proposals. 
 
What will be different if the DPJ achieves a change of government 
after the upcoming Lower House election? The revision of SOFA, for 
instance, to enable the handover of custody of U.S. Forces Japan 
(USFJ) personnel suspected of vicious crimes basically before 
indictment - an important policy that the Social Democratic Party 
(SDP) and the People's New Party (PNP) agree with - has been toned 
down to "suggesting the revision of SOFA" in the manifesto in light 
of "concerns" expressed by the U.S. side. The DPJ will now only 
"work in the direction of reviewing" USFJ realignment plans; it has 
not touched on the relocation of Futenma Air Station (in Ginowan 
City, Okinawa) within Okinawa, a plan it has opposed so far. 
 
The main purpose of the Japan-U.S. agreement on USFJ realignment is 
not the reduction of the burden on Okinawa in the first place. The 
two governments have decided on a strategic policy of extending the 
purpose of the Japan-U.S. security arrangements beyond "security of 
Japan" and "peace and stability of Asia and the Pacific" to include 
"improvement of the international security environment" and of 
reinforcing cooperation and division of labor between the two 
countries. The essence of this policy is the "expansion of 
cooperation under the alliance" with the U.S. forces and the SDF 
collaborating responsively on a global scale. The DPJ's position on 
this is not clear. 
 
Will the DPJ be able to make a decision if asked by the U.S. to 
dispatch more SDF troops overseas? The division of labor with the 
U.S. in its manifesto can also be interpreted to be similar to the 
reinforcement of the division of labor between the U.S. forces and 
the SDF. The DPJ has so far asserted that participation in UN 
military action is possible and it is conceivable that it may decide 
to dispatch the SDF on condition of a UN Security Council 
resolution. 
 
TOKYO 00001769  005 OF 013 
 
 
 
Meanwhile, in addition to the non-supporters of SDF overseas 
missions in the party, the SDP is also opposed to them. If the DPJ 
forms a coalition with the SDP, building a consensus is likely to be 
difficult. 
 
Foreign and security policies could have been one area for the DPJ 
to highlight its emphasis on "Asian diplomacy" and "nuclear 
disarmament," and demonstrate its difference from the LDP 
administration - for instance, by including in the manifesto the 
Northeast Asia denuclearization initiative that Hatoyama had once 
advocated strongly. The fact that this has not been included in the 
party's "five promises," its main policies, reflects the DPJ's 
inability to present a clear picture of an "equal Japan-U.S. 
relationship." 
 
Ideology gone, confirmation of status quo 
 
The LDP declares it will continue the course it has set down as a 
ruling party on the "reinforcement of the Japan-U.S. security 
arrangements and steady implementation of USFJ realignment," 
underscoring its "ability to take responsibility." It has the 
advantage of being able to cite its achievements as a ruling party, 
such as "cooperation in antiterrorism" and "promotion of ballistic 
missile defense." It is incomparably superior to the DPJ in terms of 
clarity. 
 
The party further pledges to "take the necessary security measures" 
to enable the "interception of ballistic missiles targeting the 
U.S." and "protection of U.S. ships engaged in cooperation on 
missile defense." It indicates its intent to go ahead with changing 
the constitutional interpretation of the right of collective 
self-defense, an issue that has been considered since the Abe 
cabinet, and has come out clearly for strengthening the Japan-U.S. 
alliance to counter North Korea's development of nuclear arms and 
missiles. 
 
The LDP manifesto says that the formulation of the "National Defense 
Program Guidelines (NDPG)" toward the end of 2009 will follow the 
recommendation made by the defense policy subcommittee of the 
party's National Defense Division. The SDF does not possess missiles 
or the capability required for attacking enemy bases because Japan 
embraces a policy of exclusive defense. The recommendation calls for 
the question of possessing the capability to attack the base of an 
enemy intending to attack Japan with missiles to be studied. This is 
opposed even by some party members as well as New Komeito. 
 
SDF overseas missions other than for peacekeeping operations under a 
UN resolution or disaster relief, including the refueling mission in 
the Indian Ocean and reconstruction aid in Iraq, have so far been 
authorized by special measure laws (with a limited term). The 
manifesto calls for legislating a permanent "basic law on 
international cooperation." 
 
The LDP has come up with a clear policy of reinforcing the bilateral 
alliance. However, former President George Bush's war on Iraq has 
resulted in divisions in the international community in the war 
against the threat of terrorism. As the world is becoming 
increasingly multipolar with the rise of China and other newly 
emerging economies, is there not a need for an ideology in foreign 
policy beyond the Japan-U.S. relationship? The concept of an "arc of 
freedom and prosperity" proposed by Aso when he was foreign minister 
 
TOKYO 00001769  006 OF 013 
 
 
is a proposal to link an area from Southeast Asia to Central Asia, 
extending to the former East European countries through democracy 
and other universal values. It has once been criticized as an 
"encirclement of China." This was written into the manifesto 
published for the 2007 House of Councillors election. 
 
Aso's ideology in foreign policy is now absent from the new 
manifesto. The passage used now is "the nation can only be defended 
with realistic policies, not with ambiguous ideals." In this sense, 
military cooperation with the U.S. stands out, and a picture of the 
future of East Asia, including relations with China, is absent. The 
LDP's policy is a mere "confirmation of the status quo." 
 
(4) "Seiron" column: Mistakes not allowed in foreign and defense 
policies 
 
SANKEI (Page 7) (Full) 
August 3, 2009 
 
Satoshi Morimoto, professor at Takushoku University Graduate School 
 
Future generations to suffer consequences, bear responsibility 
 
A new administration will be born in September after a hot electoral 
battle is fought. There is a strong possibility that this election 
will mark an important turning point in deciding the future 
direction of Japan's politics, society, and people's lives. The 
people feel an acute need to break away from old politics and 
systems in public finance, employment, education, medical services, 
nursing care, pensions, agricultural administration, 
decentralization of power, and so forth. Their attention is focused 
mostly on issues directly affecting their daily lives, and they feel 
that their lives will not become any better with the old ways. 
Therefore, they have pinned great hopes on the Democratic Party of 
Japan (DPJ). 
 
However, what is more important for this country and its people is 
foreign policy, defense, and security. The people's prosperity and 
growth is impossible without securing the peace and stability of the 
country. Such is the historical truth, whether or not the people are 
paying any attention. Regardless of what form of administration is 
created after the election and what policies are implemented, a 
government not capable of maintaining the peace and stability of the 
country has no business taking the reins of government. Therefore, 
we hope that all parties will go into the election campaign 
presenting their policies on foreign relations, security, defense, 
and crisis management in as concrete terms as possible. Unlike 
economic policy, major mistakes are not allowed in foreign, defense, 
and security policies because future generations will suffer the 
consequences and will have to bear the responsibility. 
 
Stop defense budget cuts 
 
The international situation, including the situation in East Asia, 
is becoming increasingly difficult. Regardless of the composition of 
the next administration, it will have to respond to changes in the 
situation adeptly in the pursuit of national interest. From this 
standpoint, I would like to discuss my expectations of the new 
administration. 
 
First, on policy toward North Korea. The DPRK will continue its 
provocation. It will proceed with the development of nuclear arms 
 
TOKYO 00001769  007 OF 013 
 
 
and missiles, posing a growing threat to Japan. However, it will not 
return to the Six-Party Talks. On the other hand, even if the health 
of the North Korean leader deteriorates at an unexpected rate, it is 
uncertain whether the next leader will be capable of governing the 
country. 
 
If the new leader fails, we will have to anticipate the 
disintegration of the North Korean society and chaos on the Korean 
peninsula. In such a case, the Japan-U.S. alliance relationship 
needs to be solid, and thorough crisis management policies will 
become an urgent issue. Under certain circumstances, a national 
salvation cabinet may have to be formed to pool the wisdom to 
overcome the crisis. 
 
Second, the Japan-U.S. alliance. While U.S. Forces Japan (USFJ) 
realignment may be important for making the alliance an "equal 
relationship of mutual trust," as the DPJ advocates, what is more 
important is to come up with concrete programs for cooperation in 
broad areas, such as international cooperation on a global scale to 
build a more constructive alliance relationship for the future and a 
framework for redefining the alliance as the 50th anniversary of the 
revision of the Japan-U.S. security treaty approaches. 
 
It would be desirable for Japan and the U.S. to agree on such a 
cooperation program at the Japan-U.S. summit scheduled for this 
fall. While it is fine to suggest the revision of the Status of 
Forces Agreement (SOFA), this is not a one-way process. Furthermore, 
full consideration needs to be given to how such a suggestion will 
impact the alliance relationship as a whole. 
 
Third, defense spending. Japan's defense budget has been reduced for 
seven consecutive years since FY2003 as a result of the Koizumi 
fiscal restructuring. However, the objective situation in Northeast 
Asia does not allow such cutbacks in defense allocations. Any 
further reductions will be a fundamental issue bearing on the very 
survival of the nation. The consequences of this will be borne by 
the country and its people in the future. The decline in defense 
spending should be stopped and an annual increase of at least 1 
percent should be implemented in the future if possible. 
 
Place importance on the pursuit of national interest 
 
Fourth, international cooperation. At present, Japan has dispatched 
the SDF to the Indian Ocean for antiterrorism operations and to 
waters off Somalia for an anti-piracy mission. The DPJ has opposed 
both initiatives in the Diet deliberations, but it needs to realize 
that they are greatly appreciated by the international community. 
They not only constitute Japan's important contribution in terms of 
international cooperation but are also important for the pursuit of 
Japan's national interest. 
 
Furthermore, there are many more areas where Japan and the U.S. can 
cooperate in making international contributions, including nuclear 
disarmament, poverty reduction, African development, and UN reform. 
 
Fifth, policy on China. There is no need to stress only the threat 
of China. However, China is eyeing hegemony in Asia and has embarked 
on military buildup and naval deployment to prevent Japan from 
making inroads overseas. China has to be dealt with under a 
double-track policy of cooperation and hedging. For this purpose, 
the Japan-U.S. alliance has to be solid. While it is important to 
assert Japan's position to the U.S., taking action that undermines 
 
TOKYO 00001769  008 OF 013 
 
 
the credibility of the alliance is not "independent diplomacy." 
 
In short, the new administration should promote a pragmatic approach 
in pursuit of national interest by implementing policies that were 
not possible under the old political setup. If the DPJ is able to 
play a leading role for Japan's interest and for Asia and the 
international community as a whole without being bound by the 
statements made by previous administrations to the Diet, then it 
will be able to produce constructive results at this turning point 
in postwar politics. 
 
(5) Editorial: 2009 Lower House election; Raising questions about 
LDP policies; Course of action to achieve goals unclear 
 
NIKKEI (Page 2) (Full) 
August 1, 2009 
 
With the Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) announcement on July 31 of 
its manifesto (campaign pledges) for the upcoming House of 
Representatives election, all political parties have now put forward 
their priority policies for the election. The LDP has played up its 
presence as the "party of responsibility" by presenting numerical 
targets of economic growth and fiscal health. But the concrete 
course of action to achieve those targets remains unclear and the 
resolve to continue the reform drive also appears vague. 
 
The LDP manifesto lists 68 priority items centering on three 
principles: security, vitality, and responsibility. The number is 
far fewer than the 120 items listed for the 2005 Lower House 
election. 
 
Stance of aiming for economic growth 
 
In its manifesto, the LDP vows to: (1) achieve an annual 2 percent 
economic growth rate in the second half of fiscal 2010, (1) secure 
about 2 million jobs by creating demand worth 40 trillion yen to 60 
trillion yen in the next three years, and (3) increase the nation's 
per capita income to the highest in the world in 10 years' time by 
boosting the disposal income of each household by an average 1 
million yen. 
 
The party's eagerness to revitalize the economy is clear, but when 
it comes to its means to achieve those goals, the expressions used 
in the manifesto are all too abstract, such as "leading the world 
with the low-carbon revolution," "taking in BRICs and Asian 
countries," and "participation in the job market by women and 
elderly people." 
 
The party also aims to restore fiscal health in line with the basic 
economic and fiscal policy guidelines for fiscal 2009, adopted 
recently by the government. The party also eyes to stabilize the 
ratio of the outstanding debt of the central and local governments 
to GDP in the mid-2010 and to lower it in the early 2020 in a stable 
manner. 
 
The party now eyes achieving a surplus in the primary balance in 10 
years' time, retracting its earlier plan to do so in fiscal 2011. 
Although the need to trim wasteful administrative spending is 
specified, concrete steps to achieve that goal are not spelled out. 
 
The party has put off its targets in other areas as well. For 
instance, the manifesto says about the drastic reform of the tax 
 
TOKYO 00001769  009 OF 013 
 
 
system, including the consumption tax, the party will "take 
necessary legal steps by fiscal 2011 and carry (the tax reform) 
without delay after the economy recovers." In the previous Lower 
House election, the party pledged to carry out (tax reform) by 
fiscal 2007. 
 
A review of the social security system also seemed deadlocked. A 
bill to unify the employees' pension program and the mutual aid 
pension program for national civil servants and others into one 
program went down the drain in the previous Diet session. The LDP 
platform for the next election pledges the early establishment of a 
supra-partisan consultative organ. We hope the DLP will conduct 
productive talks with the DPJ and other parties based on the bitter 
lessons learned from the 2005 joint committee of the upper and lower 
chambers. 
 
The LDP also vows to establish a basic doshu (regional bloc) law to 
introduce the system in six to eight years of the law's enactment, 
going a step further than the previous stance. But as seen in 
cautious views in the party, there are high barriers to the 
introduction of the doshu system. 
 
While economic stimulus measures are prioritized, the structural 
reform drive to revitalize the economy is likely to suffer a 
setback. The manifesto simply says about the privatization of the 
postal businesses that (the government) will "study a policy to 
secure services that combine three companies based on the four 
independent companies." Heavy attention to calls in and outside the 
party for a review of the postal program is apparently blurring the 
privatization direction. 
 
While revealing a plan to "reexamine the modalities of a variety of 
regulations to indirectly support evolving economic activities," the 
party emphasized its stance of striking a balance between regulatory 
reform and consumer administration. 
 
The LDP and the DPJ have something in common in that their 
manifestos both contain many pork-barrel measures. 
 
To provide a sense of security, the LDP also pledges to introduce 
free education for preschool children aged between three and five in 
three years in stages starting in the next fiscal year. Also 
included in the LDP manifesto is a plan to establish a scholarship 
system for high school and college students without obligation to 
repay. 
 
Going against streamlining of investments 
 
The LDP has also presented a policy of frontloading the social 
capital development program to actively take fiscal action for the 
next three years. The manifesto specifies to "actively build roads 
that are indispensable for regional livelihoods," which runs counter 
to the principle of streamlining public works projects. The 
construction of Shinkansen bullet train lines is also specified. 
 
Livelihood support and public investments must be determined based 
on their effectiveness. Unrestrained fiscal spending would result in 
further fiscal deterioration and might increase the sense of 
distrust in the Japanese economy. The manifesto stopped short of 
showing a clear direction for drastic agricultural reform to 
increase the rate of food self-sufficiency to 50 percent. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001769  010 OF 013 
 
 
An emphasis is placed on foreign and security politicizes to make a 
clear distinction from the DPJ. The fact that the manifesto touches 
on measures allowing (the SDF) to intercept a ballistic missile 
heading for the United States and to defend U.S. warship jointly 
engaged in (missile defense) deserves a positive assessment. But 
with the priority polities containing many long-term goals, 
questions remain about their feasibility. 
 
The National Congress on 21st Century Japan (21st century ad hoc 
committee) is calling for a party-head debate between the LDP and 
DPJ presidents. We hope for their earnest efforts for an early 
realization of the event. 
 
(6) Poll: Aso cabinet, political parties 
 
ASAHI (Page 2) (Full) 
August 3, 2009 
 
Questions & Answers 
(Figures shown in percentage, rounded off. Figures in parentheses 
denote the results of the previous surveys conducted July 4-5, July 
18-19, and Aug. 1-2. Left column for July 4-5, middle for July 
18-19, right for Aug. 1-2.) 
 
Q: Do you support the Aso cabinet? 
 
Yes 20 17 18 
No 68 69 63 
 
Q: Which political party do you support now? 
 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) 24 20 24 
Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ or Minshuto) 25 31 26 
New Komeito (NK) 3 3 4 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) 2 2 2 
Social Democratic Party (SDP or Shaminto) 1 1 1 
People's New Party (PNP or Kokumin Shinto) 0 0 0 
Reform Club (RC or Kaikaku Kurabu) 0 0 0 
New Party Nippon (NPN or Shinto Nippon) 0 0 0 
Other political parties 0 0 0 
None 39 35 30 
No answer (N/A) + don't know (D/K) 6 8 13 
 
Q: To what extent are you interested in the upcoming general 
election for the House of Representatives? (One choice only) 
 
Very interested 38 43 49 
Somewhat interested 36 38 35 
Not very interested 20 13 11 
Not interested at all 6 5 4 
 
Q: If you were to vote now in the general election, which political 
party would you vote for in your proportional representation bloc? 
 
LDP 22 19 22 
DPJ 37 42 39 
NK 4 4 5 
JCP 4 4 3 
SDP 1 1 1 
PNP 0 1 0 
RC 0 0 0 
NPN 0 0 0 
 
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Other political parties 1 1 1 
N/A+D/K 31 28 29 
 
Q: Which political party's candidate would you like to vote for in 
your single-seat constituency? 
 
LDP 22 20 22 
DPJ 32 37 37 
NK 2 3 2 
JCP 2 2 2 
SDP 1 1 1 
PNP 0 0 0 
RC 0 0 0 
NPN 0 0 0 
Other political parties 0 0 0 
Independent candidate 2 0 1 
N/A+D/K 39 37 35 
 
Q: Would you like the current LDP-led coalition government to 
continue, or would you otherwise like it to be replaced with a 
DPJ-led coalition government? 
 
LDP-led coalition 24 22 24 
DPJ-led coalition 47 49 46 
 
Q: Who do you think is more appropriate for prime minister, Prime 
Minister Aso or DPJ President Hatoyama? 
 
Mr. Aso 22 21 20 
Mr. Hatoyama 42 42 40 
 
Q: When you choose a political party or a candidate to vote for in 
the upcoming general election, to what extent are you thinking of 
attaching importance to choosing them for the reins of government? 
(One choice only) 
 
Thinking very much 37 
Thinking somewhat 46 
Not thinking very much 13 
Not thinking at all 4 
 
Q: To what extent do you think the LDP is competent to run the 
government? (One choice only) 
 
Very competent 6 
Somewhat competent 41 
Not very competent 41 
Not competent at all 11 
 
Q: To what extent do you think the DPJ is competent to run the 
government? (One choice only) 
 
Very competent 4 
Somewhat competent 50 
Not very competent 36 
Not competent at all 5 
 
Q: Do you have expectations for the LDP or the DPJ on economic 
policy measures? 
 
DPJ 13 
DPJ 47 
 
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Q: Do you have expectations for the LDP or the DPJ on state fiscal 
deficit turnaround measures? 
 
DPJ 28 
DPJ 46 
 
Q: Do you have expectations for the LDP or the DPJ on foreign 
relations and defense issues? 
 
DPJ 49 
DPJ 27 
 
Q: Would you like other political parties to gain more seats in the 
upcoming election? 
 
Yes 54 
38 
 
Polling methodology: The survey was conducted Aug. 1-2 over the 
telephone on a computer-aided random digit dialing (RDD) basis. 
Respondents were chosen from among the nation's voting population on 
a three-stage random-sampling basis. Households with one or more 
eligible voters totaled 1,760. Valid answers were obtained from 
1,037 persons (59%). 
 
(7) Manifestos: LDP, DPJ vying with cash handouts to individuals 
 
MAINICHI (Page 3) (Full) 
August 1, 2009 
 
The manifestos for the August 30 Lower House election of both the 
Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Democratic Party of Japan 
(DPJ) were released as of July 31. While the DPJ is making a public 
appeal on the policy of directly handing out cash to voters in the 
form of assisting their child-rearing or agriculture, the LDP, which 
claims to have the ability to take responsibility, has included in 
its manifesto a policy of making education fees for pre-school 
children free as if inspired by the DPJ. The two major political 
parties are thus increasingly bringing in pork-barrel largesse. 
 
Trying to appeal to non-affiliated voters with industrial 
organizations losing vote-gathering power 
 
The DPJ is aiming to take the reins of government, by forcing the 
ruling parties into the minority. The manifesto is characterized by 
a policy of directly handing out budgetary funds not to industrial 
circles but to individuals. 
 
The DPJ has boosted child allowance, a benefit also proposed in the 
2005 Lower House election, by 10,000 yen to 26,000 yen (312,000 yen) 
a year. It will be handed out until recipients graduate from a 
middle school. Regarding farm households, the manifesto mentions the 
establishment of a system of providing income support to households 
engaged in agriculture, forestry and fisheries. Also included is a 
pledge to make public high school education fees practically free. 
Highways tolls will also be made free. The LDP has also incorporated 
measures to assist individuals in the form of being inspired by the 
DPJ, which is aiming to reduce national burden, using every means. 
For instance, the LDP pledges to make child education fees for 
children aged between three and five free in three years' time and 
set up a cash handout-type grant system. The LDP substantively 
 
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lowered highway tolls this spring. 
 
One factor that has enabled the LDP to maintain the administration, 
except for a certain period of time, is that it has solidified its 
support base, by carrying out public works or handing out subsides 
as sought by construction, agricultural and medical organizations. 
 
However, since the Junichiro Koizumi administration implemented a 
spending cut policy of slashing public works, raising the banner of 
structural reforms, the vote-collecting power of industrial 
organizations, the LDP's support base, has become weak. 
 
Declaring that he will destroy the LDP, Koizumi directed the 
so-called Koizumi theater, in which he indicated a stance of 
confronting Diet policy cliques (forces of resistance) and succeeded 
in securing support from non-affiliated voters. However, the strain 
of the reform, such as social disparities and uncertainties about 
life, has cropped up as a problem. 
 
The vote-collecting power of the LDP's support organizations remains 
weak. As such, the LDP is beginning to focus on a strategy of trying 
to win non-affiliated voters' favor with specific assistance 
measures, instead of projecting its political vision, like the DPJ. 
 
As it is simple to understand direct assistance to individuals, it 
can easily strike their chord. Chief economist Hideo Kumano at the 
Daiichi Life Research Institute questioned the effects of such a 
policy, noting: "Policies that will prompt the expansion of 
corporate income and the improvement of productivity and increase 
income through the distribution of labor are necessary to constantly 
expand the disposal income of households. In a policy of directly 
handing out benefits, part of such benefits will be diverted for 
savings or debt payments. Their effects of stimulating consumption 
or turning around the economy will be limited." 
 
ZUMWALT