VZCZCXRO2693
OO RUEHFK RUEHKSO RUEHNH
DE RUEHKO #1755/01 2142140
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
O 022140Z AUG 09
FM AMEMBASSY TOKYO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 5063
INFO RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING IMMEDIATE 0208
RUEHUL/AMEMBASSY SEOUL IMMEDIATE 6850
RUEHFK/AMCONSUL FUKUOKA IMMEDIATE 5626
RUEHNH/AMCONSUL NAHA IMMEDIATE 7956
RUEHOK/AMCONSUL OSAKA KOBE IMMEDIATE 9435
RUEHKSO/AMCONSUL SAPPORO IMMEDIATE 6144
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEHIN/AIT TAIPEI IMMEDIATE 7427
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC IMMEDIATE
RHEHAAA/NSC WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RUEATRS/TREASURY DEPT WASHDC IMMEDIATE
RHMFISS/USFJ  IMMEDIATE
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI IMMEDIATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TOKYO 001755 
 
SIPDIS 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2019 
TAGS: PGOV PREL JA
SUBJECT: POLICY ENTERS THE JAPANESE ELECTION 
 
REF: A. TOKYO 1731 
     ¶B. TOKYO 1706 
     ¶C. TOKYO 1686 
 
Classified By: CDA JAMES P. ZUMWALT, REASONS 1.4 (b) and (d). 
 
¶1. (C) Summary:  Japan's major political parties released 
their campaign platforms this week, directing voter attention 
to the issues that will decide next month's general election 
of the Diet's lower house. The opposition Democratic Party of 
Japan (DPJ) will run under the mantra of "regime change," 
while the ruling Liberal Democratic Party will contrast its 
experience with the "irresponsible" economic and foreign 
policies of the DPJ. Japanese voters, suffering from the 
worst economic recession in half a century, care about 
bread-and-butter issues like employment, pensions, health 
care and economic policy, but have had difficulty 
distinguishing clear-cut differences between the two parties 
in these areas. The clearest policy differences exist, 
rather, in the two parties' treatment of foreign policy, 
government reform, and the budget. Policy platforms have also 
to some extent been shaped by smaller parties, whose support 
may be necessary to form a government, and by a 
decentralization movement led by a group of popular 
governors. The imminence of the election has caused the DPJ 
to adopt more pragmatic policies, the LDP to sharpen its 
criticism of the opposition, and the smaller parties to 
become more shrill. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
The Role of Policy in the Election 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶2. (C)  Before the release of the election platforms this 
week, the election had centered less on specific policy 
differences between the two parties and instead more on 
general notions of "change" vs. "experience."  Although the 
2008 U.S. presidential election, which received wide media 
coverage in Japan, is thought to have helped make normally 
risk-averse Japanese voters more open to a message of 
"change," the largest cause of voters shifting to the 
opposition party has been dissatisfaction with the ruling 
LDP, which over the past four years has gone through four 
prime ministers and overseen a number of embarrassing 
setbacks, including the loss of millions of pension records. 
The DPJ - the membership of which ranges from conservative 
former LDP members to former Socialist Party stalwarts - has 
tried to keep the policy debate as vague as possible in order 
to maintain internal stability and give the opposition little 
ammunition for criticism. 
 
¶3. (C) Because neither party had seriously debated the issues 
at stake, a poll conducted by the Yomiuri Shimbun and Waseda 
University before the release of the parties' platforms 
showed that fewer than 30% of voters thought there were 
"clear-cut policy differences" between the two parties. 
Although the release of the platforms appears, to some 
extent, to have shined the spotlight back on policies, voters 
still may have trouble differentiating the two parties' 
positions because they are so similar in many areas. The DPJ 
is reluctant to stray from the safety of LDP positions on a 
number of minor issues, while the LDP, unwilling to cede 
popular reforms like restrictions on "hereditary politics" to 
the opposition, has created its own similar proposals. Polls 
show that voters, worried about historic levels of 
unemployment and the fraying of Japan's social safety net, 
care most about bread and butter issues like employment, 
pensions, health care, a declining birthrate and economic 
policy. Moreover, voters are registering historically high 
levels of interest in the coming election and report, by a 
2-1 margin, that they will vote according to policy 
platforms, not affiliation with a political party. As a 
result, neither party can much longer afford to ignore the 
public's calls to address the issues. Indeed, the LDP's best 
and last chance to reverse the opposition's momentum may be 
to refocus the public's attention on the few policy 
differences it does have with the DPJ while calling into 
question the opposition's ability to effectively govern. 
 
TOKYO 00001755  002 OF 003 
 
 
 
- - - - - - - - 
Foreign Policy 
- - - - - - - - 
 
¶4. (C)  One area where the LDP has tried to highlight 
differences between itself and the DPJ is foreign policy. 
Prime Minister Aso and his party have worked to cultivate the 
image that only the LDP and its 50-year track record can 
manage the U.S.-Japan Alliance and defend Japan during 
uncertain times. The LDP campaign platform includes pledges 
to "maintain the U.S.-Japan alliance as the foundation of 
Japanese foreign policy," review constitutional and other 
restrictions on collective self-defense, and quickly enact 
legislation that allows Japan's Self Defense Forces (SDF) to 
participate in U.N. peacekeeping operations. The LDP has 
criticized DPJ foreign policies as irresponsible and lacking 
detail. One lawmaker said of the DPJ's flip-flopping on 
Japan's refueling mission in the Indian Ocean, "We cannot 
leave Japan to a party that hesitates to deal with a 
commonsense matter and cannot produce a unified view."  SEE 
REFTEL A. 
 
¶5. (C)  The DPJ, however, has been forced to modulate certain 
foreign policy positions because of internal divisions and 
gaps with its (sometimes) voting partner, the Social 
Democratic Party (SDP), which strongly opposes the dispatch 
of the SDF overseas. The DPJ is walking a fine line, trying 
to both reassure Japan's conservative electorate that it will 
take a pragmatic approach to security policy while 
simultaneously making enough concessions - such as leader 
Yukio Hatoyama's remark that a DPJ-led government would not 
renew Japan's re-fueling operation - to satisfy its more 
liberal and ideological membership and partners. Though its 
policies lack specifics, the DPJ has promised to turn the 
U.S.-Japan alliance into a more "equal partnership" and to 
focus on improving relations with its Asian neighbors. 
Foreign policy, however, occupies only a small space in the 
DPJ's campaign platform, and a DPJ government will likely 
make its initial focus the very bread-and-butter domestic 
issues that are attracting most of the voters' attention. 
SEE REFTEL B. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
Government, Political Reform 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶6. (C)  In terms of their domestic policy promises, the 
parties differ more in the specifics of their programs than 
in their general ideologies. Government reform is an election 
issue of much interest to the public.  The DPJ has announced 
its plan to end decades of the "bureaucracy-oriented 
politics" supposedly favored by the LDP by diluting the power 
of senior-ranked bureaucrats and moving towards a Kantei 
(prime minister's office)-centered decision making process. 
The LDP has espoused DPJ calls for limiting hereditary 
candidates in future Diet elections and reducing the number 
of seats in the Lower House, likely due to public support for 
such reforms. Decentralization is another aspect of 
government reform that has evolved into a major campaign 
issue, but here as well, both the LDP and DPJ have proposed 
their own specific ways of achieving the same ultimate goal, 
which is popular with the public. 
 
¶7. (C) Child support and education make up one more policy 
field in which the two major parties are striving to 
differentiate themselves.  The DPJ has said it intended to 
introduce a monthly child allowance of 26,000 yen (about 268 
U.S. dollars), while the LDP's proposal includes free 
education for preschool children aged between 3 and 5 over 
the next four years.  The DPJ is not without its own 
proposals for subsidized education; it has stated its 
intention to provide subsidies equivalent to tuition fees for 
households with students in public high schools.  In 
contrast, the LDP platform advocates the creation of a free 
high school education system and a grant-type college 
scholarship system strictly for low-income households. 
 
 
TOKYO 00001755  003 OF 003 
 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
The Impact of Smaller Parties on the Policy Debate 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶8. (C)  The DPJ currently depends upon the support of the 
People's New Party  (PNP) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) 
for an opposition majority in the Upper House, so even if the 
DPJ gains a majority of seats in the coming Lower House 
elections, it will still need the support of these smaller 
parties to pass its legislative agenda. In addition, DPJ 
leadership is determined not to repeat the mistakes of the 
Hosokawa administration - one of only two coalition 
governments to hold power in the past 50 years that was not 
headed by the LDP - which was unable to pass meaningful 
legislation because of internal divisions.  It fell apart in 
less than a year. To avoid a similar fate, the DPJ has 
increased coordination with smaller parties. For example, the 
DPJ has chosen not to run its own candidates in certain 
districts, instead using its support to help important 
members of the PNP and SDP get elected.  Although these 
parties mostly agree with the DPJ on domestic issues, they do 
not want Japan to develop a more active security policy and 
oppose foreign policy measures like the constitutional 
revision of Japan's peace constitution and dispatch of SDF 
forces overseas.  SEE REFTEL C. 
 
¶9. (C)  Another development that will likely affect the 
policy process should the DPJ take power is the role of the 
Japanese Communist Party (JCP) as a "constructive opposition 
party." The highly ideological party's recent statement that 
it "will cooperate with the government if a policy is good, 
but if a policy is wrong, we will oppose it" represents a 
break from its tradition of not cooperating with the 
government party. In another indication that the JCP has 
become more pragmatic as its core membership ages and 
revenues shrink, the party decided to field only 152 
candidates for lower house electoral districts,  a sharp 
decline from the 275 candidates it fielded during the 
previous election. These moves have been welcomed by the DPJ, 
which stands to gain protest and other votes that otherwise 
would have gone to the JCP. 
 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
The Wildcard: Calls for Decentralization by Popular Governors 
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 
¶10. (C)  While the DPJ has been forced to modify its policies 
to gain the support of potential partners, both the DPJ and 
LDP have included decentralization reform in their campaign 
platforms as a way to court a group of local governors led by 
the popular and outspoken governor of Osaka, Toru Hashimoto. 
The young and charismatic Hashimoto belongs to the LDP but 
has said that he would endorse, through the National 
Governors' Association (NGA), whichever party offers the most 
comprehensive decentralization reforms.  Although he had 
earlier assigned higher marks to the DPJ than to the LDP 
according to his own "decentralization rating scale," 
Hashimoto strongly criticized the DPJ's campaign platform for 
lacking an official framework for national and local leaders 
to discuss policies. That this criticism prompted DPJ leader 
Hatoyama to announce that his party's platform, which had 
been released days earlier to much fanfare, was only "an 
unofficial working copy" (thereby allowing the DPJ to 
accommodate Hashimoto's request in its final, "official" 
version) shows the influence possessed by the NGA. 
Hashimoto's personal popularity and name recognition have 
made both parties eager to earn his endorsement. 
ZUMWALT