O 261245Z AUG 09
FM AMCONSUL PESHAWAR
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8172
INFO AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL LAHORE IMMEDIATE 
AMCONSUL KARACHI IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY LONDON IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI IMMEDIATE 
AMEMBASSY KABUL IMMEDIATE 
NSC WASHINGTON DC
CIA WASHDC
DIA WASHINGTON DC
USMISSION USNATO IMMEDIATE 
SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
CDR USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
CDR USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
AMCONSUL PESHAWAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L PESHAWAR 000176 
 
 
E.O. 12958: DECL:  8/26/2019 
TAGS: PTER MOPS PGOV PK
SUBJECT: TTP SUCCESSION: CONTINUED CONFUSION AND FRAGMENTATION 
 
REF: ISLAMABAD 1844 
 
CLASSIFIED BY: Lynne Tracy, Principal Officer, U.S. Consulate 
Peshawar, U.S. Department of State. REASON: 1.4 (b), (d) 
 
 
¶1.  (C) Summary:  Almost three weeks after the death of 
Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) chief Baitullah Mehsud, an 
apparent joint media statement August 25 by Hakimullah Mehsud 
and Waliur Rehman Mehsud  may mark a truce in the battle for 
succession.  However, Pakistani military officials believe that 
Hakimullah is dead and worry that the Afghan Taliban are trying 
to control the succession struggle.  Regardless of the veracity 
of the latest announcement, the disarray of the TTP following 
Baitullah's death - including reports of a succession shura 
shootout, internecine clashes, and arrests of high-profile 
personnel - has reinforced an overall picture of a weakening 
organization.  The Pakistani military continues to insist they 
will move forward with a ground offensive as planned in South 
Waziristan, but for now they are content to let TTP commanders 
kill each other.  End summary. 
 
¶2.  (SBU) On August 19, Faqir Mohammad announced his ascension 
to the leadership of the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).  Faqir 
claimed that because Baitullah Mehsud was seriously ill, Faqir, 
as vice president of TTP, would take the reins.  On August 22, 
Faqir claimed that he was stepping down as TTP chief in favor of 
Hakimullah Mehsud, whom he claimed had been selected by a full 
shura of the TTP meeting in Orakzai; the shura, he said, had 
recognized his authority.  On August 23, rival claimant Waliur 
Rehman Mehsud met with a stringer for the Associated Press and 
claimed to have been appointed interim chief of the TTP by 
Baitullah.  The TTP shura, he said, would determine the 
succession within the following five days.  On August 25, 
Hakimullah and Waliur Rehman reportedly made a joint call to an 
Associated Press stringer familiar with both and announced that 
Hakimullah was the new leader of TTP and that Waliur had the 
lead for TTP efforts in South Waziristan.  They said that they 
were calling together to dispel any reports of disunity within 
TTP.  They did not acknowledge Faqir Mohammad's claims. 
 
 
Baitullah is Dead; New Leadership Claim Unity... 
--------------------------------------------- --- 
 
¶3.  (C) These claims are the most recent in a series of 
contradicting claims and reports from figures associated with 
the TTP about the status of and succession to Baitullah Mehsud. 
After an early series of press reports citing TTP figures as 
variously confirming and denying Baitullah's death, the TTP line 
had been that Baitullah was alive but ill.  Hakimullah and 
Waliur Rehman, in their August 25 phone call to AP, reported 
that Baitullah had been alive, but very ill, until his death on 
August 23.  This concession, apparently by the two 
highest-ranking TTP leaders, was taken by most in Pakistan as 
definitive TTP recognition of Baitullah's death. 
 
¶4.  (C) Particularly unresolved had been the veracity of a 
widely credited account of a gunfight on August 8 during a shura 
held to determine succession, in which Hakimullah and Waliur 
Rehman.   Interior Minister Rehman Malik had confirmed 
Hakimullah's death to the press on multiple occasions; NWFP 
Governor Owais Ghani also confirmed it to the PO in her initial 
courtesy call on August 18.  If true, Hakimullah's death would 
have left the other heir-apparent, Waliur Rehman, as the 
probable successor; his reported personal appearance before the 
AP stringer on August 23 would confirm his claim not to have 
been killed or wounded.  The August 25 phone call gives new but 
unconfirmed indication that Hakimullah is not dead and is the 
new head of TTP.  The presence of both contenders for the 
leadership role suggests that the succession from Baitullah to 
Hakimullah is agreed upon, at least within the Mehsuds. 
 
 
...But Other Signs Point to TTP Fragmentation 
--------------------------------------------- 
 
¶5.  (C) Other events have augmented perceptions that the TTP is 
under pressure and collapsing into internecine strife.  Over the 
past two weeks, the Pakistani press has reported multiple gun 
battles between militants in and around South Waziristan (though 
many of these have been between the TTP and other 
organizations), an attack by a TTP-aligned militia on another 
TTP-aligned militia in Upper Orakzai, and the capture of a 
Baitullah aide in Rawalpindi.  The August 19 capture of former 
TTP spokesman Maulvi Omar in Mohmand Agency, attributed in the 
press to a local lashkar which handed him over to political 
authorities, further highlighted the dissension within the 
group.  Maulvi Omar, who had been sidelined as TTP spokesman for 
a few months, was able to confirm to the press that Baitullah 
had indeed died and that there was significant infighting 
between the various factions of the TTP. 
 
¶6.  (C) The most recent evidence of the paranoia of TTP elements 
has been the report - initially from our contacts and now 
acknowledged in the Pakistani press - that elements of the TTP 
had detained Baitullah's brother -in-law and father-in-law 
Ikramullah, at whose house Baitullah had been staying when he 
died.  This detention, which TTP sources said was for the 
purpose of questioning the two on their suspected passing of 
information on Baitullah's whereabouts to the U.S., is likely 
also relevant to - if not part of - the succession struggle. 
Ikramullah is a respected Mehsud tribal elder who, prior to 
Baitullah's death, was allegedly serving as an intermediary 
between Baitullah and a group of Mehsud maliks and Deobandi 
clerics attempting to negotiate an end to the Pakistani military 
operation in South Waziristan. 
 
 
Don't Interrupt the Enemy When He Is Making A Mistake 
--------------------------------------------- -------- 
 
¶7.  (C) Comment:  There is still considerable doubt in Pakistan 
that Hakimullah is alive or that the TTP succession issue has 
been settled.  Even if true, the statement indicates that 
Hakimullah will have to share power with  second-tier commanders 
like Waliur Rehman and perhaps Faqir Mohammad.  Faqir Mohammad's 
claim to overall TTP leadership was never likely to have been 
ratified by the Mehsuds, who have provided the bulk of the TTP's 
striking power since its formation in 2007; however, the fact 
that he made a claim at all indicates some level of discontent 
with the current structure of the TTP.  Waliur Rehman's August 
23 statement to the press made clear that he continues to covet 
the role of successor; according to our contacts, he has enough 
seniority among the Mehsuds to split the movement if he wished 
to do so.  Both Army and Frontier Corps leaders have shared with 
PO their concerns that the Afghan Taliban are trying to control 
the succession struggle. 
 
¶8.  (C) Comment continued:  Frontier Corps Commander MG Tariq 
Khan told PO August 26 that the Army and the FC are steadfast in 
their commitment to begin ground operations in South Waziristan 
by the end of September.  According to the press, the GOP 
reportedly has rejected Hafiz Gul Bahadur's August 22 
announcement of a Ramazan ceasefire in North Waziristan.  Many 
Consulate contacts, however, believe that the Pakistan military 
is putting the ground offensive on hold to avoid giving the 
feuding TTP forces a reason to unite.  End comment. 
 
 
PUTNAM